Auto sales for September are in and the total vehicles sold was 1,214,758.  This represents a number that i9s 9% better than last year.  Last month auto sales were a very impressive 1.58 million with a record SAAR of 17.53 million.  This month the SAAR came in at 16.43 million.  The headlines will speak to the year over year growth, but the lower SAAR this month has bullish analysts backing down from overall 2014 sales of over 16.5 million.  It is almost as if the sales want to move to the next level, but the consumer sentiment is still being cautious.  We are seeing fits and starts in the sector right now.

On a year to date basis we have seen sales at just under 12.4 million.  That means that we need to see an average of 1.33 million per month in order to hit 16.4 million in overall sales for 2014.  For perspective, Q4 of 2014 delivered auto sales of 3.8 million.  A 5% increase over last year can deliver the needed 4 million units to achieve 16.4 million.  Getting to 16.5 million is where the street wants to be.  That will require the average over the next 3 months to be 1.36 million.  Traditionally December is the big month in Q4.

The sales were robust enough for SiriusXM to maintain its guidance, but not so robust that another boost in the subscriber number will happen at the quarterly call.  Had we seen the SAAR hold a 17 handle, I suspect that the company would have boosted the number again at the conference call.

The mix of leading, point-of-sale, and trailing manufacturers remains about the same.  The point of sale category made a bit of a climb by taking share away from the other two categories.  However, the numbers are not such that it would move the needle much.  Data below:

10-3 auto sales