With everything that happens in the world of Sirius XM, it’s easy to forget the little nuances that have occurred in recent weeks. It seems like years ago, but it was just 1 month ago when Mel Karmazin was speaking at a Merrill Lynch conference.
It was that very conference which sent Sirius XM stock plummetting to its current lows. I wrote about it immediately in an article titled “Why Is Sirius XM Going Down?” It was in that conference when Mel, speaking in general terms, was taken literally for each and every word he spoke. The end result was a perception that Sirius XM was lowering guidance. Every firm on Wall Street adjusted their models downward to reflect the numbers the company had provided.
The faithful readers of SiriusBuzz and listeners of SiriusBuzzRadio will know that I had stated my belief that these numbers were inaccurate but that the street took them as law. One example of low-balling was a conservative estimate of an expected 19.5 million subscribers by year end.
According to Satwaves.com however, today Mel indicated that the company currently HAS 19.5 million subscribers! This would make over 20 million entirely plausible by year end, and would mean that every analyst on the street would need to revise their forecast models upwards.
I find it ironic that the street took Mel’s last statement as the Word of God, yet this one seems to have been completely ignored. Q3 results could prove very interesting. Stay tuned!
Position: Long SIRI