Just Another Opinion Piece
I’m beginning to wonder if my vacation was a good thing or bad. Having taken a sabbatical from all things Sirius, I feel like I’ve come back to absolute confusion among our readers and colleagues. Everything I’ve read regarding the recent conference call led me to believe it was another awful show on the part of Sirius XM management. I relunctantly decided to listen for myself.
I have to say that I was pleasantly surprised and I do not understand the negativity surrounding the call! I have followed Sirius for many, many years now, and unlike a lot of people, I have made a lot of money with the stock. None recently of course, but I’m well in the black none the less.
This conference call was by far one of the best in years, possibly the best I’ve heard under Mel. Special consideration should be given to David Frear. For years, I, like most of you, listened to Mr. Frear lay out the numbers on a quarterly basis in a monotone, matter of fact manner that lacked any humility whatsoever.
Think back and you may recall waiting as I did for Mel to read his prepared statement and wishing David would stop talking. David was much more interesting this time around. This call was different. David was much more confident in his tone. He was also much more open to visibility, and offered to work with analysts on their models. This has never happened before. It would seem the street has finally beaten Sirius XM into submission. That is good for investors, and is what Wall Street has been asking for since the inception of satellite radio…CLARITY!
Mel Karmazin also did an outstanding job and clearly demonstrated to me that his intent is to bring Sirius XM to its goal of acheiving cash flow breakeven in 2009. His willingness to answer questions relating to the 2009 debt refinancing indicates to me that he is fully aware that the current stock price is absolutely dependant on Sirius XM concluding its refinancing needs prior to February.
As an aside, one issue that came up in my absence is the potential for a reverse split and potential dilution. I have read a lot of comments opposed to these issues. For starters, let me assure you, that dilution is already priced into the stock and it has been for months. Analysts have been warning of it in every report for nearly a year now. The market looks forward. The only way Sirius XM could have avoided dilution was to have exceptional sales in the third and fourth quarters of 2008. The auto manufacturing outlook made it clear that this is not going to happen.
That my friends is the very reason the stock is trading at a quarter. Speaking of that fact, have you looked at your position in SIRI lately? Not wanting a reverse split now seems ludicrous to me. Sirius has too many shares outstanding which allows the naked shorts to run rampant all over it. Sirius is the most shorted stock on the NASDAQ and also had the greatest increase in its short position than any other NASDAQ listed stock.
The reason that Google for instance, will not split its stock is that a high stock price gives the appearance of greater value. The same goes for Berkshire Hathaway. It is for that very reason that Sirius should do a reverse split. It would also allow hundreds if not thousands of mutual funds to purchase Sirius shares. I would personally rather own 10000 shares at 10.00 a share than 400000 shares at 25 cents. As shareholders we have to support the company in its decision making or dare I say it; risk going the way of Lehman Brothers.
Position: Long SIRI
Borrowed shares are owned by UBS & MS – 263 million shares…
Have some more cool-aid there Brandon!!
sxm
Thanks for the 10q!!
Brandon your kidding me right????
“one issue that came up in my absence is the potential for a reverse split and potential dilution”
I guess you totally forgot about this article!?!?
https://siriusbuzz.com/in-my-humble-opinion.php
Brandon,
You couldn’t be more incorrect that delisting would bring us to 0.
How long were you a “broker”?
Many things you say make me think that you quit before you even finished your training.
I don’t mean to make a personal attack but man have you been off on some things you state as facts.
Brandon,
Did you make most of your money by shorting SIRI? You sound very much like you might have ulterior motives?
Hey Vapor.
If your .25 survives today. I will crown you the Siriusbuzz analyst of the month. LOL. Good luck.
Socal
Sirius right now is a trading stock. If you had 20 grand to play with, you could just go in and out at penny fluctuations and make some nice little profits.
I used to trade with that amount before I sunk it all in Sirius as I averaged down.
Water under the bridge. 🙂
By the time I save up 20Gs again…Sirius will either be over a buck again…or
oh never mind. 🙂
Cheers.
Are you TYLER or are YOU Brandon? I want to know that? Why write under two names? Why do that? You just lost credability for anything you say.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/a.....94018.html
From the 10Q
Since September 30, 2008, we have issued an aggregate of 262,911,513 shares of our common stock, par value $0.001 per share, in
exchange for $90,772 principal amount of our 2 1 / 2 % Convertible Notes due 2009 beneficially owned by institutional holders. We did not
receive any cash proceeds as a result of the exchange of our common stock for the 2 1 / 2 % Notes, which notes have been retired and cancelled.
We executed these transactions to reduce our debt and interest cost, increase our equity, and improve our balance sheet. We intend to engage in
additional exchanges in respect of our outstanding indebtedness if and as favorable opportunities arise.
We intend to engage in additional exchanges..
Does SiriusXM have enough shares on hand to continue doing additonal exchanges??
anyone?
vaporgold
Where is the link to the Q3 CC? Have not seen it anywhere. I want to hear it with my own eyes…
Thanks
If a reverse split must happen, so be it. I would be inclined to sell after that because my position would lose leverage and there are better buys in the $10-$20 range. The reverse split absolutely should not take place before the debt issue is settled–if there is any substantial move upward, and I would expect a quick .10 to .30 rise after the debt is refinanced, the naked shorters (institutions included, shockingly) will be begging to buy shares and the stock could show a geometric rise in price.
SoCalRun…
I think it will maintain or climb a penny.
At this point, I am just waiting on the torpedo from the GS sub.
imho
vaporgold
First of all, all things considered, I was very happy with the tone of the conference call.
As to the voting, giving management the right to do a reserse split, I wouldn’t be surprised if the option to do a reverse split wasn’t a condition of many potential lenders. They want assurances that SIRI XM will be a viable company, with listed stock, so they may insist that the possibility of the reverse split exists (even if such split never happens).
Hey Vapor, at this point the GS sub is sinking…who knows if they’ll even get a chance to fire that torpedo the rate they are sinking.
At the rate they are diving….the pressure could crush their hull at any moment. Let hope Weinkes is on board if that happens.
@ic2ofu
Other sites scrape our content from Siriusbuzz and attribute it to one author. If I wrote an article on Siriusbuzz right now istockanalyst would display that same article in a few minutes and say that it was written by “Tyler.” Basically sites like istock and seekingalpha attribute articles to authors rather then websites… which is fine, except that they don’t allow us to list multiple authors.
I’m getting sick and tired of people relating being listed with the viability of a company.
It’s a major farse.
I’d like one person to list factual information on how being listed makes a company better or that it makes the true worth of a stock better.
brandon
“25,000 shares at 0 is 0 dollars. That is where delisting will bring the stock. Maybe a penny or three if we are lucky. 500 at 12.50 is 6250 dollars. Which do you prefer?”
if bonesy’s cost basis is anything like mine, 6250 is a huge slap in the face to the tens of thousands that we lost.
I’d rather take the chance of going bust than settle for 10% of my initial investment.
Id also rather see the stock delisted and the management face that pain rather than get screwed out of my $$ and they get off easy with a reverse split.
I want the management to feel the same pain that we the shareholders pay!
To start offwith: If you read my comments above, you know that I am against the RS.
But do you people honestly think that a major bank is going to loan a billion dollars to a pink sheet company? You are out of your minds. If Sirius gets delisted, you might as well write off the rest of your investment.
jord3 and many others: You state that you would rather loose your whole investment than do a RS? You are fucking mad. If I had a pile of $5k and a pile of dog crap sitting next to each other, you would go after the 5k. That is basically what your options are for this. Take the RS and hold onto your cash, or get delisted and face a very real possibility of getting nothing.
If Sirius gets delisted before they get financing, they are BK and you will get the pile of dog crap, plain and simple. There is no way they will get any financing as a pink sheet stock.
no offense but it was nicer when Brandon abandoned the ship
jord3t….
That is a valid point you are making. If the current stockholders get laid to waste.
After the RS and issue of more shares, Mel and mangement will just issue themselves more shares as bonuses with the approval of the BofD.
They won’t feel any pain, and we will be history.
From the remarks on the 10Q, it looks like that is the direction..more later
vaporgold
Newman,
You do understand that just because it isn’t listed on the NASDAQ doesn’t mean it automatically becomes a pink sheet stock.
You should know this.
They have a fighting chance by temporarily trading on the OTCBB until they get their crap straightened out.
I’d rather take my chances there and then get relisted than R/S and get sunk that way.
And by the way – OTCBB companies get financed all of the time based upon their business model, future earnings, etc.
Once again – the share price being above $1 based upon temporary manipulation doesn’t mean that it’s really worth $1 or that it will stay there.
SoCalRun…
What was the close??..lol
vaporgold
jord,
its not a slap in the face, its a kick the balls!!i would vote yes for a r/s if and only if they can not get financing. we all expect the pps to go up if they get financing, what if it doesn’t, then what? every other bit of good news has sent this pos down, refi the feb debt and the street will say good but why not may and we go down further. the recent numbers appear to be numbers for the banks as they are very conservative which we all know banks want low ball numbers to see how you would pay it back in the worst case scenario.
Hey Vapor.
.27. You made it. LOL.
Just maybe you found the bottom.
How about working on that top now.
Socal.
Newman.
Consider me out of my mind.
EOM
yep,
We are all Mad and waiting for the 50 to 1 RS and issue of more shares when the loans don’t come through for Feb, May and Dec.
SoCalRun…
ok the bottom is taken care of.. Now for the top…
Did you say we should put it back together and quickly sell the XM division to Google??
vaporgold
Vapor.
I would welcome most any even faint rumor of something with Google.
Make it happen.
Socal
I am so glad I voted AGAINST this reverse split, and voted Bad Karma..zin out. These guys at sirius buzz are always siding with SIRIUS board decisions.
Here boy!! Come on weinkes!!
Oh thats a good boy weinkes!!
Hey you hungry boy?
How about some dog food from China?
———————————–
So where are you biatch? Give us the verdict!!
0.15 / .050 ??
.50 / correction 🙂
Back to .25
vaporgold
SoCalRun…
I would sell that puppy (XM) to Google in a heartbeat.They get the spectrum we get 1.2B and keep the subs.Good deal for everyone.
Anything other changes you want made?
imho
vaporgold
I voted my shares yesterday.
I feel so much better.I doubt we will have enough to stop Mel from this Ugly RS and the issue of more shares to quite possibly service the Feb,May and Dec notes.
The dilution will be staggering.
imho
vaporgold
I need to get that done.
Ok Vapor .25 still looks good. When do we get back over .30?
If Mel is not straight out lying about trying to obtain loans at favorable conditions, as soon as he announces he has the Feb note serviced we are beyond .30
I hope that is the case. But if he has not announced that he has the Feb note serviced by the stockholders meeting in Dec, lookout.
The issue of more shares for the Feb, May, and Dec notes may have been his intention all along.
I hope I am so wrong.
imho
vaporgold
You see Vapor. I actual was wondering the same.
What if his short order, means after the additional shares gets approved in December?????
We would be completely ______!
We are talking almost no volume in Siri today.
Shorts have bled it dry.
Longs just sit and cry.
And we just wonder why.
Socalrun…
Do you realize that you are staring to write in rhyme?
quote:
Shorts have bled it dry.
Longs just sit and cry.
And we just wonder why.
That is the first sign of something…can’t remember what it is exactly..
Oh yea, now I do..Sirius Remorse
vaporgold
Hey Vapor,
We have no new thread to banter back and forth on.
These serious topics, like holiday sales and products are just too boring. lol.
So, I wanted to tell “SiriusHope” that in after hours we went over .27. I know that kind of trading drives him crazy.
I think he decided he had better odds inside the casinos. lol.
Well, Vapor. I’m sure I’ve lost my mind. Sirious dementia.
Keep that price rising.
Most expect nothing for weeks ahead.
I see a rally.
We’ll see.
Socal
Vapor. Voted my shares today. Same as you.