Even I must admit, that buying Sirius XM common stock at this time is a crap-shoot, or borrowing a term from our old pal Jim Cramer, akin to buying a lottery ticket. There is a case to be made for such a purchase however, if you are like myself and have lost nearly your entire investment in the stock.
Let’s assume that you purchased 1000 shares of Sirius XM stock at 3.00. Your $3,000 investment has declined in value to a mere $140.00! If you were to dollar cost average now, and purchase an additional 1,000 shares, you would be putting at risk only an additional $140.00. This means of course that the stock would only have to rise to $1.50 for such an investor to break even on his/her investment. With such a minimal amount of additional risk, it would be at the very least prudent to consult with a financial advisor regarding such a strategy.
There are also several points of interest that give this plan a higher probability of a successful outcome. There have already been reports that Sirius XM is in the final stages of debt renegotiation’s with their lenders.
Certain naysayers have forgotten that Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin has stated publicly on more than one occasion that the company has been looking to retire all of its 2009 debt obligations in one fell swoop rather than in pieces. These naysayers have already begun to make reference to the company’s May 2009 debt obligation, and just may be in for a real shocker if the company announces with the February debt retirement that they have successfully completed that issue as well.
To top it all off, Sirius XM stock has been trading up, despite the absolutely abysmal OEM numbers reported yesterday by the automakers. It is clear to me that Sirius XM management made the right decision months ago to begin up-selling its service to its already existing 20 million subscriber base, rather than depend on new subscriptions from the OEM sector. This should translate into increased revenue on lowered costs for the yet to be reported fourth quarter, and that revenue may bring with it a fourth quarter upside earnings surprise. Also of significance, are the facts that the Senate approved a tax break for new car purchases which will help Sirius XM as much as the auto manufacturers and for my fellow technical analysts, that SIRI closed above its 50 day moving average for the first time in over 6 months yesterday as well.
Position: Long Sirius XM