In My Humble Opinion
Now that Sirius XM has laid out its cards on the table, I’d like to offer my view. I’m surprised at all the surprise and negativity from these other analysts. I mean, they have to be kidding, right?
On the reverse split issue, allow me to paint myself into a corner and applaud the company. It’s about time they got proactive in defending the stock price! This should have been done years ago. One of the biggest problems for Sirius XM over the past several years is that it has had far too many shares outstanding. Such a large number of shares combined with a sub 5.00 stock price has made manipulation too easy. The number of outstanding shares alone validates its reversal.
Have you seen the stock price lately? Dilution has been factored into it already. Several analyst reports that I have read this quarter have planned on it. They may have expected it in February, but what’s the difference at this point? So go ahead, trade the 35 cent shares for debt, then do a 50 for 1 reverse split. As a shareholder, I’d rather see the company trying to protect my investment rather than sit back and watch it evaporate further.
On the issue of the debt for shares “surprise,” I am just as excited about this as I am a reverse split. I thought Wall Street analysts were supposed to be smart! I can easily recall Mel Karmazin’s recent statements, that Sirius XM would be very close to being in a position in February, to pay off its debt with CASH ON HAND. My thinking is that the 30 million dollars raised will make that Feb 2009 debt retirement completely plausible. This is the single best sign of the future of Sirius XM that I have seen in many years.
The markets want visibility and it plans up to 18 months ahead. The market right now cannot see past February when it comes to Satellite radio. Many analysts have speculated about a potential restructuring at that time that could wipe out shareholders. Up until now, the company has been silent. These signs are the first real indication of its intentions to avoid bankruptcy and to reduce its debt. This is not just talk. Who, for instance, would accept 30 million dollars in common stock in exchange for repayable debt if bankruptcy were even a remote possibility? NO ONE!
The only reason to enter into such a deal is the belief that the equity has more value than not only the bond interest, but its principle. That is good news, no matter how you look at it, for shareholders.
Position: Long SIRI







YOU ALL HAVE BUT ONE CONTEMPLATION. BK OR NOT. IF SO SELL. IF NOT BORROW TO BUY. FRIGGIN HAS NO GUTS AT THIS PRICE, BUT SHOULD HE? BK OR NOT? I CHOOSE NOT. THE REASON A RS IS NOT BAD IS BECAUSE WE’RE ABOUT TO START SAVING MILLIONS AND ARE ABUT TO MAKE A PROFIT. RS WILL BUY TIME TO GET ROLLING. MEL JUST STATED HE SEES THE REFI. STILL HAPPENING. STOP BLAMING HIM FOR OUR MISERY. HARTLIEB’S A WINER WHO WANTS HIS MONEY BACK. BE MEN AND BUY.
Friggen, we are about to hit a quarter, r u still goin put in a $1000, to buy 4000 shares?
I know it doesn’t mean anything but I have been emailing the stern show nonstop, telling Howard to get Mel in the studio to take callers questions. If Sirius files for BK then I am sure Howard will take a hit as well
Some say we should give management the “tools” they need to meet the challenges ahead. Management must first prove responsible with the tools they have already been given . . .
Asking shareholders to give management the “authority” for the equity offering and reverse split amounts to handing the car keys to a drunk . . . Mel must first come forward and walk a straight line in front of the shareholders watchful eyes.
Mel . . . it is past time to address the great unwashed masses . . . come down from Trump Tower and enlighten the “unsophisticated.”
A couple of thoughts…
1) Has anyone thought about the impact that all our bitching has on the stock price. I feel the same pain as everyone else here. But if I wasn’t in this stock, and saw all the bitching from current stockholders, I would NEVER think about jumping in. And it’s not just here, but google and yahoo(all fucking retards btw) boards are bashtastic as well.
2) How can anyone expect Howard to pony up cash to bail the company out? How did Howard and Mel become grouped into this duo of debt payers? Howard is an employee of Sirius who is paid to host a radio show. And as for all the ignorant assholes that say he makes too much, I have already shown that he has more then made up for what Sirius has paid him.
3) I don’t see why people are hatin on Brandon for the article. I think he is totally on point. Pay the Feb debt off with CASH ON HAND. Convert some more debt. Pay off what can be be paid off with cash and refi the rest. That is the best solution, both short and long term.
4) No more dilution and no reverse split.
There seems to be alot more volume and bigger buys coming in at .25 & .26 cents, so maybe worst is finally over ?
Id Sirius comes out with a statement that things are not as bad as stock indicates, we could double or triple from here pretty quickly.
I think the stock hitting .25 should trigger some statement from them, no ?
Theres no way in hell howard would be stupid enough to bail out the company.
It would be nice for us small investors, but seriously would any of us take that kind of risk? not me.
just because howard has a lot of $$ doesnt make him responsible to bail us out of the mess we are in.
we need to go after the real bastards who screwed us over, not Howard.
I am becoming convinced that Mel is accomplishing exactly what he set out to do: bring the company to a dismal low and then steal it from the investors who he used to get it to that point, and then cash in while giving us all the finger with a big grin on his face.
All I have to say is that FEAR right now is at a fever pitch for this stock.
What does that normally tell you to do or what you should do ?
I think the stock hitting .25 should trigger some statement from them, no ?
One would think so, but there has been no effort whatsover to calm investors. When was the last time that investors were addressed by the company?
SOME HUMOR IS NEEDED….someone wrote this…
By Grandpa
How did you get three houses and a really cool boat?
Well Little Billy, I invested in a stock called Sirius during the stock market crash of 2008. Way back then you could get a share for the same price as a pack of Juicy Fruit. I kept buying and believing in the head of the company…he’s call a CEO. I would work and save and buy stock in that company…then one day in early 2010 people started to notice that the economy was improving and the company had over 40 million people paying to listen to music and talk.
In the end when I ended up selling, that stock was worth $40 a share…I was quite a happy camper.
Now shut up and go to bed.
There is a thread in the stock talk forums on this site called –
“SIRI closed at 25 cents today………thoughts?”
Please post your comments there…….
Dear Cramer
You said 2 months ago Sirius stock was a $2 lottery ticket and I did not listen, cuz you said before merger it would double to $ 5 from $2.5 and I listened and bought a lot.
I promise you I would listen now if you tell me what scratch ticket is worse a quarter. Then I will buy and scratch my butt with a sirius stock
Juicy Fruit costs 30 cents, our stocks are worth a tiny bag of Doritos
Thanks SiriusHope!
I’m glad the punchline wasn’t grandpa speaking from his unheated trailer telling the kid to shut up and stir in the two free sugar packets from MacDonalds into his glass of water!
Thanks for the levity on this day. Hopefully today, even though it is not the end of September, will be the end of the quarter (bad joke)!
even a quarter can’t open a french toilet door to let you shit on the stock
chizzle-
In my town, a tiny bag of Doritos is 50 cents. If this keeps up, maybe I’ll move to your town!
Or, perhaps we can buy a large bag, split the cost between several shareholders, and have a party!!
OK, time for a jar and put quarter in if some one says something negative about the stock.
Well, my guess we may buy back the company with jar full of quarters
Funny comments, Im gonna buy another 2k shares tomorrow, whats another $500. It has got to turn around, I think?
There is a thread in the stock talk forums on this site called -
“SIRI closed at 25 cents today………your thoughts?”
If your comments are not specific to the article, please post your comments there…….
Chizzle
Why not wait when it is apenny and buy 50 k
when GS said target $1.75 and Mel bought 2 mil @ 1.37, I bought 35K when hit 1.25 ans was so excited.
Then, GS put target .75, and went to .65, i got excited again and bought 20K. Then, now in .25 and I ran out of excitment
I hear some say we should blame ourselevs !!! Really, when a CEO is talking about billions of synergies in premerger. When, you look at very financial analyst pre merger having positive outlook and buy rating. When, S&P, yahoo financial, money CNN all still having rating of outperform. Are not these are the buisness experts that should guide investor.
I guess we fell for the same scam, the congress fell for to pay 750 billions of our taxes