If You Blink, You’ll Miss It
As the much anticipated conference call of Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin draws near, you may have missed the lone company press release today regarding a new exclusive Beatles program on Sirius.
I’m sure you are thinking, who cares? Am I right? Of course I am. I too, watched the stock get pounded to new lows today and could not care less about yet another programming announcement. Much less one that dealt with the Beatles.
That is until I spotted a very Interesting notation in the L.A. Times Music Blog. To begin with, it seems this is not a new show but rather a show that has been on terrestrial radio for many years. It also has a decent following, but that’s not the interesting part.
The interesting part is that the Times states that a special waiver had to be granted to Sirius to broadcast the show!
“One reason the show had never been streamed or picked up by satellite radio previously is that Internet radio stations are restricted from playing more than a few tracks from the same album or by the same artist within a three-hour period. A special waiver was required to allow “Breakfast With the Beatles” on satellite radio.”
Special waiver? Exclusive? Internet? This would also firm up support for iPod inclusion rumors. Speaking of rumors, another new rumor has surfaced regarding Sirius XM inclusion into a new Microsoft Xbox relaunch due on September 25th.
Position: Long SIRI
Hey Brandon, I really gotta hand it to ya . . . . I do believe you could find a silver lining in a mushroom cloud.
Let me be the first, right here on the record, to predict that absolutely NOTHING beneficial will come of Mel’s remarks tomorrow, NOTHING.
Perhaps tomorrow someone will ask Mel how much cash-on-hand remains. It would be interesting to see if he actually answers the question this time!
I love ya B man, but WAIVER SMAIVER.
I also saw this Beatles news slip under the radar. Being a HUGE Apple user my whole life, I know that Steve Job’s HOLY GRAIL is to acquire the rights to sell the full Beatle’s catalog on itunes. Heck, he named his friggin company after the Beatle’s old label.
I used to get excited and LOVE to piece together these huge Rube Goldbergian connections worthy of an X files episode….
But I just can’t get excited ANYMORE. Not when it comes to Sirius. I’ve been beaten down by expectations so many times with this stock, that it’s not even FUN anymore to speculate.
I’ve become THAT cynical.
My new motto is SHOW ME. Don’t TELL ME.
I used to be the BIGGEST optimist when it came to Sirius. But now I’m a total Pessimist(at least short term).
Being a pessimist about such “news” or “theories” or RUMORS….is so much better. That way, if I am proven right, I am not DISAPPOINTED….and if I am proven wrong, I’m PLEASANTLY SURPRISED.
But when in the last 3 years have we been pleasantly surprised? Honestly.
Am I going to watch the Apple event tomorrow streamed live on Macrumors? You bet. Like I do for ALL Apple events and product launches the last 12 years.
Will I keep an ear out for what Mel says tomorrow? Of COURSE.
But as far as allowing myself leaps of logic, or flights of fancy or wishful thinking….or entertaining ANY rumors….I FRIGGIN REFUSE TO GET EXCITED.
Nothing short of a SEISMIC SHIFT IN THE ROTATION OF THE EARTH WOULD GET MY ATTENTION.
I’ve become a super realist when it comes to this stock. I am still long and strong. But ALL my excitement is on hold…for several years down the road. THAT is when this shift will take place…not NOW.
I’d love to be wrong. But I REFUSE to get excited like I did for nearly TWO YEARS ABOUT THE MERGER. The emotional ups and downs getting excited about EVERY rumor during that period and ALWAYS being let down was too much…and the final slap in the face was when the merger finally went thru and not only did we not pop…but we got cut in half and then half again!
So please forgive me if I am guarded. Please understand if I don’t allow myself to get excited anymore.
It’s going to take ALOT more than rumors and announcements that do little if anything to get this Sirius Long excited.
I feel this is the only sane choice given the past track record of this stock.
3 years down the road as painfully long away as that seems after the last 3 years…is a much more realistic view.
friggin…
how ironic is this? I wrote an article called “Show Me Don’t Tell Me” a month ago…
https://siriusbuzz.com/siriusxm-show-me-dont-tell-me.php
I know how you feel..
Tyler/Brandon – I e-mailed Sirius investor relations about when Mel is having the post labor day CC and they pointed me 2 X to the Merrill Conference on Tuesday.
I was under the impression that there would be a seperate CC to lay out all the #’s and the companies timelines for operations and debt.
If this is it, it better be the real dirt and not just a horse and poney show with graphs of how they will have 50 million subs in 5 years.
I feel the same way investor. In fact, if I don’t hear anything good I will sell my .000000000000000000000016 stake in the company! LOL!
Exactly man. Hey…we’re on the same page.
And I know you run this site, and I’d do the same thing you’re doing if I did. I’d balance the good and the bad. So i understand why you are so optimistic at times and angry at others.
You’re a voice for the masses of longs, and you have to rally the troops and boost the morale at times. I know this…and appreciate it.
I want to participate in this enthusiasm again. I really do. Not just because I’m a shareholder, but because I BELIEVE in this company and stock. If I didn’t I wouldn’t have been able to stomach these last few years.
I’m just feeling really cynical right now.
Believe me, I want more than ANYTHING to snap out of this funk and ALLOW myself to be as gung ho enthusiastic again. For one thing, it feels BETTER and is ALOT more FUN.
I HATE being cynical.
I guess I’m just protecting myself.
Trust me, I want more than anything to wake up tomorrow to some AMAZING news from Mel, or Apple…or BOTH. I want more than anything to feel that rush…of something REAL…something tangible that I can hang my optimistic hat on.
But I am keeping that in check until it happens for real.
Keep up the good work tho. You are doing a great job of balancing both sides of the emotional coin.
Buy buy buy
Hey Brandon,
Do you think we can hold the $1.25 price if no HUGE news is announced tomorrow?
I know the whole Apple/Sirius ipod rumor is a LONG shot….but what other news from Mel will be enough to LIFT this stock in your opinion?
I don’t know friggin.
I lowered my stop today to 1.19. I just can’t sell before the announcement tomorrow. It was 1.24 and would have been triggered. I’ve decided that I’m willing to miss a small runup if it drops below that point. I like you need to see results. Results for me mean a reversal in trend. We need 1.50 for that. I was hoping that we were at the bottom, but dropping to 1.22 today scares the crap out of me.
Hey Brandon — It’s always been my understanding that Mel will be making the usual dog and poney show tomorrow and then meet privately with them to discuss possible refinancing options,etc. Unless there is a news release prior to his presentation, I wouldn’t expect anything new in his presentation.
Like everone, I am very disappointed that there was no CC announced (even a date in the near future), despite Mel’s strong statement about keeping the investors informed!
My question is where is Gary Parsons, our “Chairman”, nowadays … not a peep from him while Mel is taking the heat. Some words of support for his CEO and the “business plan” certainly wouldn’t hurt.
I’m really nervous about getting another swift kick in the azz tomorrow.
Brandon — It should have been “I don’t friggin know friggin…”
Hi Brandon-
If you can, I’d like you to let us know some things I have questions about: Is the prohibition of playing more than a few tracks of an album exclusive to the Beatles recordings, or it for any artist/group? Whose prohibition is it? Would the prohibiting company/agency grant such a waiver only if was paid a royalty or only if it had a vested interest in the broadcast of more of the given album? Would such a ban (and the necessity to get a waiver) apply to satellite radio if the satellite company did NOT play that many songs from an album on its internet radio broadcasts? Thanks again for giving us all your insights. I appreciate it!
Hey Brandon, I’d like to say I’d have the nerve to sell like you should we drop lower than $1.22…but I’m afraid I’m stuck in the “DEER IN THE HEADLIGHTS” phase.
I’ve “averaged” down from $6.50 with an average price now of $3 and change.
At this point, I’m in it till the end. I can’t even imagine pulling out now. Whats the point? If I did, I’d be losing more than HALF my money.
How much lower can it REALLY go? 20 cents?
It just seems kind of pointless to panic now. I mean if I sold now and bought back in at $1…I wouldn’t be adding THAT many more shares.
No, at this point, should that scenario play out, I stand a better chance of making money by just “averaging down” some more.
I’ve made my bed, and can’t see any other choice but to ride it out till some REAL news lifts us back up.
Ugh. I can’t wait for this nightmare to end.
stevesirius…
From what I know about the beatles, which is less than I know about the composition of neptune, is that the rights to their music are controlled by either the family or the record companies.
I remember this past seasons American Idol (hey, I like it, deal with it)they had Beatles week and I have a vague recollection that they were not allowed to use Beatles songs until then and that special permission had to be granted.
As terrestrial radio pays no royalties, its entirely possible that Sirius will or has agreed to pay royalties directly to the copyright owners as they would any record label.
Did that cover it?
Hey Friggin — There are many longs in the same situation. I just keep averaging down as well … but not large amounts ’cause now we are talking about pennies as opposed to bucks.
The company ain’t goin’ belly-up, so the nightmare, unfortunately, will continue for the longs until there are some announcements that move the pps north of $1.50 and stays there.
Friggin beegin fee fi fo feegan!
We’re ALL suffering dude. Join the club.
I don’t know WHAT I’m gonna do. Sell and buy back like Brandon should we drop further…or hold and average down like the Frigmeister.
Man. Who’d ever thunk we’d be saying this post merger huh?
It’s REALLY gonna take some miracle of biblical proportions to MOVE this stock.
And why I tend to think there won’t be any “POP” in the traditional sense of the word…but rather a loooooooong sloooooooow climb up PENNY by PENNY over several years.
If you have patience, you’ll get your “POP”….but if you aren’t…it’ll be agony.
http://www.billboard.com/bbcom.....1003722487
Apple to confirm Beatles iTunes deal and new iPods on Tuesday
http://www.musicradar.com/news.....day-172271
it’s only a matter of time before the Beatle’s catalog is available on itunes.
EVERY ipod event there is whispers of it…with Paul McCartney and Ringo playing on stage after Steve Job’s keynote.
But it never pans out.
One of these days it WILL happen. But I don’t think it’s tomorrow.
Brandon-
Thanks for your answer. I won’t tell anyone you like American Idol (that’ll be our little secret!) and I won’t respect you any less.
So, the Beatles stuff has been regulated by its “owners”. I am just curious: Does that hold true for other music? Does satellite or internet radio have to deal with this restriction with other artists. From your quote: “Internet radio stations are restricted from playing more than a few tracks from the same album or by the same artist within a three-hour period.” It says “by the same artist.” Let me know if you have any insight on this. If the three-hour period applies to other bands, is it their copyright owners making this decision, or is some governmental body mandating this (unless the copywright owner issues a waiver)? Thanks!
Just think: If most (or even some) of the rumors and things people have noticed (Radio Shack being told to clear their shelves for new products, discounts on current satellite radios, iPhone, iPhone, X-Box, GM’s notice of expanded offerings, Europe, staff reductions, best-of satellite offerings) are announced tomorrow on the Merrill Lynch call, we could have an end to the “no news is bad news” psychology which has dogged this stock. Let’s hope tomorrow’s call put’s us on a solid period of growth for Sirius XM and the stock!
I like your last paragraph SteveSirius….a nice list of “what ifs” that would get any long’s heart racing.
But what if Mel’s speech tomorrow reveals nothing new? What if it’s just a restating by Mel of what he’s been saying for weeks?
I hope something new and exciting is revealed…but I’m gonna wait and see before getting all hot and bothered.
Now about that microsoft rumor….
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For those that have never heard this show, it is awesome. Whether a hard core Beatles fan, or a casual listener, this show has not only th Beatles music, but a lot of interesting talk and dialogue as well.
I became familiar with this show back in 1985 and 1986, and loved it. I had thought that such programming had long since disappeared.
I for one am glad to see that this show will once again be available to me. I just hope that recording it on my Stiletto is not blocked.
fccfoff-
Regarding my last paragraph, although we’d all like Mel to hit a home run tomorrow with a series of major announcements, I think he is smart enough to know that he has to start announcing something major. It is in the company’s interest to take as much advantage as possible of the holiday buying season – especially in the current economic situation where there will be a lot of unsold product on shelves for people to choose from. Also, he knows he has to do things to stop the stock price bleed – so that refinancing is not so onerous in the future. Same things with money to pay off old debt and take advantage of future projects. Let’s hope his obvious need and desire can be brought to fruition and not by “we intend” and “we hope to” kinds of statements but “starting next week _____, _____ and _____ will be available in stores and available only on our airwaves.”
I better stop this wishful thinking, because if he can’t pull it off with actual, not theoretical, information, we are all in deep ____.
I’m still optimistic, but no one better try to get my attention while I’m listening to the Merrill Lynch conference call tomorrow!
Good luck to all of us!
>quote: “Internet radio stations are restricted from playing more than a >few tracks from the same album or by the same artist within a three->hour period.” It says “by the same artist.” Let me know if you have any >insight on this. If the three-hour period applies to other bands, is it >their copyright owners making this decision, or is some governmental >body mandating this (unless the copywright owner issues a waiver)? >Thanks!
This 4 songs/3 hours rule applies to every channel on Sirius at all times. Although the waiver is granted by the record company, I believe the origin of this rule is in anti-payola legislation, to prevent the next Alan Freed from playing “Rock Around the Clock” for 24 hours. Eliot Spitzer was reexamining payola violations in commercial radio as recently as last year, so this rule is taken very seriously. Except on dedicated artist channels, you will very rarely see it broken, even on Pantera weekend on Hard Attack or B-52s weekend or what have you. Listen closely, you’ll see.
Sorry to burst your tiny bubble of hope, but good to see this blog has a good solid deductive brain, regardless!
If Gary Parsons has to speak to give his CEO support at this time we are all screwed. Mel is what will make this company great. It’s his plan and dream to make this company the largest Media company out there. The question is will he be taking current common shareholders with him. I am looking for something, anything, solid today. Anything less will have me reconsidering my Long position at this time, stepping back and watching what happens, period.