Howard Stern “Bummed” By Judges Decision – Vows Appeal
Yesterday we broke the news that Sirius XM had emerged victorious in the lawsuit filed by Howard Stern and his agent Don Buchwald. The Judge in the matter, Barbara Kapnick, ruled in favor of Sirius XM’s request for summary judgment and dismissed the case with prejudice. Contrary to rumors circling the Internet, Stern can, and it appears will, appeal the case.
On his Sirius XM radio show Tuesday morning Stern addressed the matter by saying that he was “bummed” with the judges decision and “wanted his day in court to argue his side because he is “certain he is right.” Stern stated that he consulted his attorney and that council advised him that “many Kapnick decisions are overturned in a higher court.” Stern vowed that he will appeal the decision and fight this matter until resolved.
While the cloud of the lawsuit has been removed, a new but smaller cloud will return when Stern and his agent appeal the case. Because the case has not yet made it to courtroom debate, interesting days could still lay ahead. The initial victory by Sirius XM stopped a downward slide, sent the stock up 3%, stopped and helped establish a new level of support for the equity. SiriusBuzz readers invested in SIRI got a heads-up to the issue, and savvy investors took advantage.
Now it is time for another heads-up. In the coming days the Stern appeal will likely be filed, creating yet another news item that the street may react to. Depending on how “stern” the Stern appeal is, the newswires may frame the issue as a negative to the stock. Rest assured analysts will be seeking out legal opinion on the matter and the Stearn suit may be the subject of press reporting as the company heads into their earnings call on May 1st.
If nothing else, the news on this suit has served to spark interest in Stern as well as Sirius XM. Stern has said that he has no animosity for the company that employs him, but we will see how things play out as the main stream press coverage catches up to the news. With Stern acting as a judge on televisions America’s Got Talent, all things Stern will be hitting the wires soon.
The bottom line is that the first chapter in the Stern vs. Sirius XM drama has been closed and the second chapter may prove even more interesting both from a fan and investor standpoint. It can certainly be argued that the removal of a lawsuit cloud can bolster the equity and make the company more valuable to Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LMCA) which holds a 40% stake in Sirius XM and is possibly looking to increase that stake. Do not underestimate this news, in fact only a fool would downplay this event. It set support levels and was potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
The decision is the first chapter and the last chapter. You have been wrong on all these issues from day one and do not confuse your common folks.
Concerning the stock slide “stop”, I just wonder what you are trying to prove. There is ZERO reason for the stock to slide down because there is ZERO sign of any negative news. And there will be a ton og great news in 2012. You should know that.
I said it before and I will repeat it now. Get off your horse; take off your hat and admit your mistakes.
Sirius XM is a phenomenal business with a phenomenal future. Seekers of instant gratification should never be long with this stock. You do not build business overnight, in particular business like Sirius with billions in upfront capex. It takes years. It took apple seven years after Jobs returned to turn around. Sirius XM has been around less than 4 years. In another three no one will even heed to ambivalent auguring and deductions that you are making. The company will wallow in money. You should know that. If you do not realize that, do not hypothesize about this company because you come across as ignorant of basic business principles.
The only problem I see for the future of xm/ sirius is the availability of wifi pretty much everywhere. How many people are going to pay for programing when you can get it for free?
stock slides happen for a number of reasons. Overall sentiment on the market, an upside swing on news followed by a correction down, or anything else.
Negatives….
How about SIRI being entangled in a battle over control that they will likely lose? How about people finally realizing that there will be no bidding war for this stock? How about great Q1 auto sales and sub guidance remaining at 1.3 million? How about increased guidance in churn by 10%? To some these are perceived negatives.
You paint a very bright future for Sirius XM, but the reality is that Sirius XM has several things that control it.
Define phenomenal future. What does that mean in 1 year, 2 years, and three years?
Define wallowing in money. Is that in 1 year, 2, 3, 4, or 5 years from now. How much money will they be wallowing in?
i love your comments v.l. i have been reading them for months
Thank you. It is great to know that ther is at least one person where my comments do not fall on deaf ears.
Nowadays folks like Spencer, who are addicted to miracles and/or instant gratification, rush to burn the company like Sirius XM to ashes. They do not realize fundamental truths that it takes years to build a successful business, in particular after the calamity of its two predecessors.
Mel Karmazin is on the right course. He moved as fast as possible in areas where he could cut costs and realize billions in merger synergies. Now he is addressing each and every aspect where the company has a chance to excel in his opinion, not Spencer’s. One thing Mel does not believe in is “free”. Of course he does promos and all kinds of other stuff that help the company get customers and build the brand. Still, at the foundation of the company is subscription business built on unique unrivaled content that is reinforced by phenomenal simplicity of access.
Sirus XM will make rich a lot of folks with patience. I recall times when my investment was so much under water that I thought it was the end of the world. I did need not only nerves of steel but also courage to buy my core investment in siri at seven cents. Everybody thought I was crazy. It turns out I was not but there certainly was some providence on my side and the genius of Mel.
One may argue that Sirius is expensive. The only service that is cheaper but much worse in quality is netflix. Is it worth paying $20 a month for siri? This is certainly discretionary. There are dozens of millions, if not a hundred million, of educated people in this country who would want to have the service plus they can afford it. This is why I keep saying that siri is just at the beginning of its greatness and tough times are far behind that it is time to forget them.
I haven’t paid full price for my sub in 2 1/2 years they keep giving me 5/6 months for 20 bucks. As soon as they try to make me pay full price i am off to the world of podcasts and internet radio. Mel has ruined satellite radio by making it more like regular radio and less special. I drive for a living and at one time Sat. radio was the best option for entertainment. The internet has canceled that advantage and most “educated people” know that. Sat. radio, like cable tv is the old way of providing content,so they better provide something worth paying for or at a price that cant be beat.
“Mel has ruined satellite radio by making it more like regular radio and less special.”
I am not sure if its Mel’s fault, but I agree and I believe there are a lot of people who feel the same way. I think this will ultimately be the demise of this platform.
You say I want instant gratification, yet you do not even know this. Sure instant gratification is great, but I do not always seek it.
With SIRI there are many issues that should not take years but have. Their Apps suck! Why is it taking this company YEARS to develop an App that works well?
I fully realize it takes years to build a business. It is why I was fortunate enough to have shares of SIRI at $0.43 down to $0.35 per share and XM at a couple of buck. It is why I gave these companies a ton of latitude as they were growing. Now that they are making money I can and do hold them to a higher standard. Why do I hold them to a higher standard? because they have matured and should be acting like a company that has matured.
Mel should run the company as he sees fit. However, that does not mean he is in touch with what is happening out there. Why is Sirius XM not linked into Facebook music? Why does their IP platform lag behind so badly? Why do their Apps suffer so much? The biggest boom around was the smartphone boom and Mel missed that boat. Now he is trying to dive in, but the likes of Spotify and Pandora have already dominated the medium.
How unique is the content now. Really, look at this. A lot of what used to be unique to Sirius XM is no longer unique.
You say Sirius XM will make a lot of folks rich with patience. How patient do people have to be? Can you quantify that? Will someone that bought at $5 per share be rich any time soon? What about someone who bought at $2. Does the $2 get rich when the stock hits $3, or do they need to wait until $4 or $5 to be “rich”?
You say there are a hundred million that want to have the service. How do you arrive at that? What is stopping them? Why do 56% elect not to keep the service when they finish a free trial period? Why does 25% of the self paying user base churn out each year? Why is SIRI adding subs at a rate of only a million and a half per year if hundreds of millions want the service?
At 20 million self paying subs you say SIRI is just at the beginning of greatness. What defines greatness to you? Is it that 100 million subscriber mark? How long do you feel it will take to get there? 1 year? 10 years? 20? At 1.5 million additions per year you are looking at 53 years to get there. I guess when you say patience you really mean it!
I’m not looking to argue one way or another but I do find your comment interesting… you say
“I recall times when my investment was so much under water that I thought it was the end of the world.”
So, you will admit that you don’t always get it right… correct? I don’t mind a good conversation but calling Spencer stupid when you rode SIRI down to 7 cents is retarded.
also you say…
“The only service that is cheaper but much worse in quality is netflix.”
I subscribe to both services and disagree. Netflix provides much more bang for my buck. Just my 2 cents (I can’t be the only one).
This is not about stupid or smart. This is about FACTS that 99% SA contributors, including Spencer, blatantly IGNORE or DISMISS. And the FACTS are such that the company is robustly profitable already today and will be mega profitable tomorrow based on what is happening today and what they are projecting in good faith. I assume the company knows a little bit more than Spencer et al.
When people keep dismissing FACTS and REALITY, the only explanation is that they are doing this DELIBERATELY!!! This means they have certain goals that we are not aware of under the shield of their so called scrutiny.
All I am asking is “”ACCEPT THE FACTS”, deal with them the way they are, and base your “theories” on reality rather than your convoluted vision.
Here are some facts that need to be taken into consideration:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47078031
You say 99% of SA contributors ignore facts. Can you substantiate this?
I have discussed profits of SIRI. You say that the company is “robustly profitable today”. Is that a fact, or is that your opinion?
You say the company will be “mega-profitable tomorrow” – Again, is that a fact or an opinion. Can you please define the parameters for robustly profitable and mega profitable?
I can only assume that you are assigning a definition of $427 million as robustly profitable.
You see…..what you are calling FACTS are not facts at all, but simply your opinion.
SIRI has the benefit of operating in a vacuum for a while because of limited debt service, limited capex expenditure, a price increase, and NOL’s that offset gains. That is wonderful, but the reality of how well this company is doing is to look at it under normalized circumstances.
You say I am deliberately doing something. Is that a “fact” in your head, or is it an actual overall fact?
You see, you have these rose colored glasses that give you a skewed vision of reality. You can not even separate real facts from your own opinion
1. Personally, I do not think Spencer ignores facts. I think he does a great job reporting numbers and car sales and such.
2. You say that company (SIRI) knows more than Spencer et all but, if people only listened to companies, every stock would be a strong buy.
What would Lehman Brothers or Enron have said about their company and stock in the weeks before the companies went to hell?
Writers like Spencer do a great job in opening investors eyes to potential benefits and detriments. It’s up to us, the readers, to decide what to do with that information.
Stern says he is going to appeal. I would like to hear what his lawyers say.
This was a strong judicial decision and appelate courts deny far more appeals than they recognize.
Stern never stood a chance. Did anyone read his reply to Sirius motion for summary judgement? It was totally emotional and without facts. Maybe he is singularly responsible for the merger, but unless it is explicitly agreed upon via contract, verbal or written, he’s entitled to NOTHING but what is in the contract.
I can’t believe he’d go after Sirius again. $hit, they’ve made him a megamillionaire. He’s like a little baby seeking “credit”. Relax and enjoy your hot model wife compliments of your millions.
Spencer, wether u pepper your articles with facts is irrelevant. Cause it’s obvious you also harbor a strong opinion that Mel & SiriusXm have dropped the ball and those strong biases of yours flavor your commentary just as much as those you accuse of being blind fan boys. You say the Sirius Apps suck. That is YOUR opinion. Certainly not shared by me and many others. You also say with such certainty that NONE of the things that Siri Shareholders are expecting or hoping for will come true. You say its all tilted in Liberty’s favor and that we might as all resign ourselves to that fact and that none of us will get rich. Again…YOUR opinion. No matter how much you try to spin the facts, you have NO idea what will happen or if Siri shareholders will get screwed. None. You have been wrong MANY times in the past. As we all have. So you proclaiming with certainty how things will or wont play out is just as annoying as those with stars in their eyes who say we are going to $10 this year.
I think Siri shareholders are going to make out quite nicely this year and beyond. You disagree. We shall see. 🙂
Saying the app sucks is his opinion BUT, read the reviews. It is a fact that their apps receive terrible reviews.
It is also fact that it took them over a year to get an app to market.
It is also a fact that they just updated their app two days ago and after that update, the app feed broke for EVERYONE for 24+ hours. How embarrassing is that? You roll out an upgrade, everyone updates, only to find out that the “new and improved stability” is not only not improved but, COMPLETELY BROKEN.
Um….SXMfan….reviews ARE opinions. I don’t care how many reviews by bloggers say their apps suck. I LIKE my SIRI app on my iphone and my ipad. Seriously. WTF? You are not stating facts. Plus you are still harping on how long it took SIRIUS XM to get their apps out?? Double WTF! LOL. Way to live in the past dude. Right there, your bias against Siri is showing thru. Just like Spencer’s bias drips from every paragraph of his article. Fine. Those are YOUR opinions. Others may share them….but countless others DON’T. So you can scream and holler all you want. You can shout to the heavens and stamp your feet. But me thinks thou doust protest too much. There are those of us that don’t have to. We like what Sirius xm is doing as a stock and as a company. We like our app, and we think Mel IS in touch with what is going on. If there is one arguement I am getting sick of, it’s the Mel is out of touch with modern tech argument. Or Mel is an old radio guy. PHOOEY! Mel knows what hes doing. I give kudos to Mel for what he’s done so far, and have more faith in what he will do going forward than anything you or Spencer have to say about it. Oh…and by the way…you should really change your name from SXMfan to something like SXMhater. Just a thought. 😛
You don’t care how many users of the app say it sucks? Really? You don’t care that it is terribly rated in the Apple App Store? You don’t think that is a good barometer for user/subscriber sentiment? That makes no sense.
BTW, I am stating a fact that the app gets terrible rating and reviews. Reviews are one mans opinion but, thousands of bad reviews is a trend. Like I said, the app gets terrible reviews, that is a fact.
If everyone who used Netflix told me they thought it was terrible, I would rethink my investment regardless of what I thought of the service.
“Plus you are still harping on how long it took SIRIUS XM to get their apps out?? Double WTF! LOL. Way to live in the past dude.”
I am not living in the past. Their inability to execute is a trend that makes me nervous about the future. I would prefer they be more agile in a fickle industry.
Sorry that I am concerned that they release a new version of their app and it crashes. I don’t know how releasing a new app and having it crash is a good sign. It is unconscionable.
“Right there, your bias against Siri is showing thru.”
I love SiriusXM! I have been a subscriber since 2005.
“So you can scream and holler all you want.”
I am neither screaming nor hollering. Me thinks thou doth protest too much.
Perhaps if you are going to report on important legal issues, you should first determine how “summary judgment” is spelled. Really!
Colleen…..
Perhaps before you cast stones you should do a little research:
1. judgement and judgement are both acceptable spellings of the word.
“The spelling judgment is found in the Authorized Version of the Bible. However, the spelling judgement (with e added) largely replaced judgment in the United Kingdom in a non-legal context. In the context of the law, however, judgment is preferred. In the U.S. judgment strongly prevails. As with many such spelling differences, both forms are equally acceptable in Canada and Australia, although judgment is more common in Canada and judgement in Australia.[1] In New Zealand the form judgment is the preferred spelling in dictionaries, newspapers and legislation, although the variant judgement can also be found in all three categories. In South Africa, judgement is the more common form. See further at American and British English spelling differences.”
2. The filing by the judge states “Summary Judgment” just as I have spelled it
Look first before casting stones and damnation
The guy is CLUELESS. He has the arrogance to speak about matters that he has no idea of and simply does not comprehend. His arrognace has blinded him to a point that is simply beguiling the company with his stupid and blantantly ignorant statements.
All he can do is to count subscribers with some degree of credibility. The rest is shameful because he has no idea how a business works.
VI…..
Colleen was dead wrong, and has not come back to acknowledge it. Look it up for yourself and you will see that.
I am not arrogant. You call me arrgoant because I have opinions. You call me arrogant because I have the balls to look at both sides of the coin.
You say I have no idea how business works. That is opinion of yours from which you have no information to base that opinion. That is fine….you are entitled to an opinion. You just need to know that opinions based on nothing tend to be worth nothing.
The last statement describes you perfectly!!!
You still seem angry to me dude. And the Siri app also gets rave reviews. I no more judge the online reviews of an app than i do the online rantings on yahoo message boards. If you wanna cling to the anonymous negative reviews thats fine. There are plenty of positive reviews that I can cling to as well….but i don’t, cause the bottom line is that “I” love the Siri app. Friggin LOVE it!
Plus, i don’t see the negative “trend” you see in Sirius. People see what they want to see. Whatever you focus on, tends to expand, and for whatever reason, you have labeled SIRI negatively and won’t let go. I am not trying to convince you of anything. Nor do i have a blog like Spencer and try to convince others.
I disagree with both your assesments of the company and Mel and will continue to do so. I have way more faith in Mel than either you or Spencer.
Again, we shall see how this plays out. But i am confident, that my long position, which is already green, is gonna get ALOT greener thanks to Mel. 🙂
That’s strange you say that because I am not angry about anything.
Sure, the SiriusXM gets SOME rave reviews. Right now it has 1.5 stars out of 5. That is insanely low. I happen to love it as well but, not so much when it crashes after I update it. In general, I love having the mobile service but, the app is ho hum compared to other music apps.
“There are plenty of positive reviews that I can cling to as well….but i don’t, cause the bottom line is that “I” love the Siri app. Friggin LOVE it!”
You realize that you loving the app and not caring about others is most dangerous when it comes to investing, right? Again, I love the app too but, I care very much what other people think about a service I invest in.
For example, I didn’t care about the Netflix price hike AT ALL. Good thing I listened to what others thought because I sold that stock at $300 and now it sits at $100.
“Whatever you focus on, tends to expand, and for whatever reason, you have labeled SIRI negatively and won’t let go.”
I love SiriusXM. Again, I have been a subscriber and shareholder (off and on) since 2005. It’s an awesome service, that could easily be better.
“I disagree with both your assesments of the company and Mel and will continue to do so. I have way more faith in Mel than either you or Spencer.”
Did you continue to listen to Mel as the company almost went bankrupt? I’ve never heard Mel say a bad thing but, I did watch numerous positive interviews while the stock went from $5 to $.05. Listening to Mel and only Mel is dangerous.
Mel is not going to ever focus on the potential negatives, he is going to brush them off and downplay them. This is what makes Mel and any other CEO, a great CEO!
Dude. Please. There are so many great apps that get lousy reviews on the app store. People vent for stupid reasons, and thats why I equate the reviews on the app store with those on the yahoo boards. I am serious about that.
Secondly, about SIRI going from $5 to .05 cents? Again…please. Were you even there? Do you recall the longest Merger battle in FCC history? It dragged on forever by nafarious parties with agendas. It dragged on so long that when it was finally approved, the economy totally collapsed. WORST timing EVER. ALL liquidity dried up. Nobody could get a loan. Good companies went bankrupt.
SIRIUS didn’t thanks to Mel. You can bitch all ya want about it…but the merger delay and ecpnomic collapse were NOT Mel’s fault. But Mel kept us alive. Smart investors took Mel’s words about protecting shareholders to heart, and averaged down during that period. I sure did.
It was during this time that all the bashers were screaming SIRI was gonna declare BK….they didn’t. Again thanks to Mel.
Then the bashers said SIRIUS would have to do a RS to stay listed. And once again, Mel protected us, and we broke a buck organically.
Then bashers said we’d never break $2….um….we did.
Now the bashers are saying we are gonna get screwed by Liberty. I don’t know if you heard Mel on Mad Money last month, but he said even tho Liberty was free to do what they wanted, that he was going to make sure SIRI shareholders were treated fairly.
Ya know what? Call me crazy….but I believe the dude. 🙂
Here is the million dollar question….
Define what “treated fairly” means to you?
If Mel decides that $2.50 per share is fair will you agree with it?
Really? There are a lot of great 1 star apps? I am would be interested in seeing a few of those.
There are plenty of great apps with great ratings so, not everyone is just there to “vent.”
I’d go out on a limb and say that there are more correctly labeled 5 star apps than unjust 1 star apps.
“Secondly, about SIRI going from $5 to .05 cents? Again…please. Were you even there? Do you recall the longest Merger battle in FCC history?”
My point is that Mel said the company was great all along. BTW, I was there. I got out in time and back in at $0.13.
“SIRIUS didn’t thanks to Mel. You can bitch all ya want about it…but the merger delay and economic collapse were NOT Mel’s fault.”
The state of the company during that time was Mel’s fault. If it wasn’t Mels fault, whose was it? If the company was better positioned they wouldn’t have to give away part of the company to stay alive.
That is the problem with the average bitching American complaining about a bad economy for their bad economic situation. Instead of keeping a ton of debt on my personal books, I am debt free. Instead of buying houses and cars I can’t afford, I have a ton of liquid investments. When the economy takes a shit, I can afford to take YEARS off of work if I want to.
SiriusXM should have made sure they could handle a bad economy. Just like all of those bankrupt financial insinuations. Was it the economies fault or the banking industries fault for being improperly leveraged?
“Then bashers said we’d never break $2….um….we did.”
I never said they wouldn’t break $2. Neither did Spencer!
It’s Mels fault they weren’t better positioned for the crash? Seriously? Again, i refer you to the nearly 2 year FCC delay on the merger. The LONGEST in history. It ended just as the bottom was falling out in the economy. That was not Mel’s fault. Nor am I making excuses for Mel. In fact, i am PRAISING him for what he did to keep his company from going bankrupt like alot of other companies during is period. Despite all the screaming and the hollering from the bashers, Mel kept us in the game. You can Monday morning quarterback all you want SXMfan…but Mel is the god damn man in my book.
Obviously we differ on this point. And good for you on your wealth. I can do the same thing. I don’t even have to work. I am a true free spirit and travel constantly. A nice chunk of my wealth was thanks to Mel & SIRI.
I haven’t changed my mind about app reviews either. Either good or bad. Look how easy it is to pump Amazon reveiws. Same with app reviews.
I have been an apple head for years, before it was “cool” to be so. And still, as then…if you go to ANY Apple fan site…in the forums Apple haters jump on every new product Apple puts out and trys to find fault in it. They bash how the battery is no good. How the thing overheats or how the screen is yellow. They call it antenna-gate, or battery gate or gate this and gate that. Trying to stir up doubt.
I look at everything out there, but i trust nothing. Especially “reviews” by annoymous people who may or may not have an agenda. Alot of young people with no money, may like Pandora cause its FREE…but does that make it a GOOD business? Um….no. Look at P today. Tanking below $8.
We live in a world of instant blogging and viral video. You think reviews can be trusted either way as a true barometer? I dont.
Lets compare SIRIUS’ and Pandora’s CCs this May. Lets see which company is executing better hmm? I think we both know the answer.
green…..
I can assure you that the app is a constant problem with Sirius XM and they get complaints about it all of the time. I will leave it at that, but am 100000000% positive on this issue. You might be surprised by the people I talk to
Of course people are going to “hate” but, for every hater of Apple there are 10 lovers.
You don’t want to believe app store reviews, that is fine. I don’t there is an agenda or conspiracy. The new app was released, it didn’t work, it got hundreds of 1 star reviews. That sounds about right to me.
If you don’t like App store ratings, How about Better Business Bureau complaints? Netflix and SiriusXM have around the same number of users yet SiriusXM has 7k filed complaints while Netflix has 1k. That is a pretty telling story.
“Lets compare SIRIUS’ and Pandora’s CCs this May. Lets see which company is executing better hmm? I think we both know the answer.”
Pandora is your barometer? That is setting the bar pretty low. I won’t be happy if they are only performing better than Pandora.
Spencer, with all due respect, i dont care who u talk to. Not impressed. I love the SiriusXM app, and so do most of the people I know.
Arguing with this guy is like asking a mountain to move. I have been through this many times. All he can see is his bloated ego. The guy crossed every boundary of decency and is simply beguiling the company now.
Who cares!!! The dog is barking but the caravan is moving. Neither he not the crooks at Seeking Alpha, that now bans me from the site because I expose their lies routinely in a factuial manner, will be able to stop the amazing progress of the company.
Sirius XM is making history of radio and entertainment. These so called experts will find themselves with their perennial twists, distortions and lies in horse manure already this year. They have already discredited themselves and no one will give rat’s ass about the garbage they routinely and delibertaley post.
V.I.
Again you spout up with NOTHING concrete to base things on. I talk to people INSIDE THE INDUSTRY all of the time. Greenmeanie (without even knowing it) just said the very people he trusts have an opinion that is worthless. It is almost humorous how little people actually know and the blind support they place in people that they never even interact with.
Now here is the challenge for you. You say the company is making amazing progress:
1. Please define what “amazing progress” is going forward
2. Please define where you feel ARPU will be in Q1 and what you deem as unsatisfactory, satisfactory, and amazing.
3. Please define where you feel subscribers should be in Q1 and what you deem as unsatisfactory, satisfactory, and amazing.
4. Please define where you feel SAC should be in Q1 and what you deem as unsatisfactory, satisfactory, and amazing
5. Please define where you feel revenue should be in Q1 and what you define as unsatisfactory, satisfactory, and amazing
6. Please define where you feel Free Cash Flow should be in Q1 and what you deem as unsatisfactory, satisfactory, and amazing.
7. Please define where you feel adjusted EBITDA should be in Q1 and what you deem as unsatisfactory, satisfactory, and amazing.
8. Please define where you feel churn should be in Q1 and what you deem as unsatisfactory, satisfactory, and amazing.
9. Please define where you feel where the profit/loss will be in Q1 and what you deem as unsatisfactory, satisfactory, and amazing.
You see, I am openly asking you to put out REAL metrics rather than blind statements that have no teeth to back them up. The last time we did this exercise your definitions of success for the company failed miserably yet you still want to say things are amazing. Need I remind you?
http://seekingalpha.com/articl.....s-too-high
You missed revenue by $16 million. Not bad
You missed EBITDA by $43 to $53 million
You missed FCF by $10 million
You missed EPS by 2 cents per share.
The fact is that the company missed every one of your projections. Yet you still deem them as amazing. Now I am putting you to the test again. Do you have the guts to put up your expectations to the exacting detail you call me out for?
You are so tricky, Spencer. I am truly shocked that you have the arrogance again to ask me all these questions without a slight desire on your part to come forward as an “expert” what you actually want, in terms of metrics, of the company per your scale of questions above.
Do it yourself, and we will have a meaningful discussion.
I just want to remind you how you were making a smart face trying to concoct a shroud of difficulty for siri to raise its price. How you proselytized regarding the challenges for FCC to lift the price freeze. Here is the example of your demagoguery. Remember how I told that it was going to as easy and as simple as it can be. It did happen in a very mundane matter of fact way. No hassle, no fuss, and the price increase was removed last August.
Remember how you fear mongered with this Shenk frivolous crap. Again, Shenk got bupkis. The nuisance delayed the price increase till the end of the year.
Remember how you groaned and moaned if siri would be able to meet the 1.6M target. By how much did the beat the target. 100K, which a meager now for you, and fantastic for me on my scale of business valuation.
These were all your “genius forecasts” that were not worth a dime.
Answer your own “expert questions”, and we will start a manly discussion. So far I feel that you have no idea what you are talking about. Prove me wrong via serious responsible arguments and “opinions” vs. your opinionated grudge driven smearing of the company with a smart face of an unbiased observer. Prove me wrong.
At least I had the courage to post my projections and I am not ashamed of them. Not being an expert, I was not too far off, and beat you clearly on subs numbers where you are an “expert”.
Get off your high horse and respect your readers, in particular those who want to trust you.
Prove me wrong that the company is doing well and has a great future on your scale of measurements. Actually none of you on SA never ever revealed this scale. But do me a favor! Do not compare siri with aapl or google or microsoft but do compare with its industry peers.
I do not know what your objective is when you publish on Seeking Alpha but it appears they pay you for the music they order. Maybe this influence degrades the quality of your posts faster than it would have happened otherwise. Once you started writing for them in your zeal of getting exposure, your material deteriorated immensely.
VI….
It is not about being tricky. It is about you putting your money where your mouth is. I asked you to quantify some things point blank about how you define “amazing” as it relates to this company and the upcoming quarter. You DODGED the question. Why did you dodge it? Because last time you answered similar questions you were WAY OFF. The company did not meet your “amazing” standards then, and likely wont now. It becomes difficult to use words like “amazing” when you get called to the carpet. I put out my estimates each and every quarter. I put out my thoughts each and every wrok. You come out and call me clueless, say the company is amazing, and essentially throw around a bunch of words with no meaning. Why did I ask you these questions? So you could search your own soul and come to the conclusion that the adjectives you use to describe this company are a bit too over the top.
The ball is in YOUR COURT. I want to see you back up your assertions for once.
regarding the Shenk case. Once again, you have opened your mouth and inserted your foot.
1. The Shenk case had NOTHING to do with the price increase. The Shenk case is still in active litigation. Mel and others were deposed last month.
2. The Shenk case is a shareholder class action. Shenk has not received anything because the matter has not been resolved. Again, still an active case.
3. The case that did relate to the price increase was the Blessing case, a class action brought on behalf of subscribers. This case has had a decision and has been appealed by MULTIPLE parties. In fact, attorneys for both sides just submitted their exclusion dates for oral arguments in the last week or so. Perhaps if you conducted a little more research you would know these things…And you say I am clueless???? Too funny
Regarding the 1.6 million susbs.
I did not groan and moan that they would not hit the number. I stated quite clearly that hitting the number would be a challenge and listed several things that they would need to do to get the number. I stated that auto sales would have to be near the top for the year, that they would need to work retention efforts more than usual, that the used car market would need to be a good contributor, and that they would need to hit a good churn number. Did you notice that ARPU went down that quarter? Why is that? Heavy retention efforts is the answer. Did you notice that deactivated subscribers went down when it should have gone up? Why is that. Heavy retention efforts. You see, SIRI gave away the store to hit an impressive sub number and then followed it up by guiding to substantially less! Yep, they are amazing! You see, my record is crystal clear in black and white. Go ahead and look it up…..oh yea, you don’t bother with such things, you simply pull adjectives out of the air and assign the wrong information to the wrong lawsuit.
Seeking Alpha. I was writing on Seeking Alpha long before anyone else that covers this equity. They do not pay for music as far as I can tell. Yes, they do pay me a very modest sum. It does not change my lifestyle, nor does it impact my opinion. You and many others do not even seem capable of comprehending what Seeking Alpha is.
Thus, the ball is in YOUR COURT. You are the one saying that the company is “amazing” Put up your estimates
I am 100% on your page!!!
Does that logic work for everything?
Most people I know are rich. Poor people must not exist.
Most people I know don’t live near the Ocean. I guess people don’t live near the ocean.