Comments on: Future Concerns about SDARS

By: cos1000

cos1000 — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 12:42:00 +0000

1.1 Billion in debt due?? This is very confusing. Is it all due at the same time? How much is new debt and how much is old debt being refinanced? There is so much BS on the boards about debt becoming due and when its due, no wonder analysts can’t give a positive push to this company. Maybe an article on the new company’s debt would help clear things up.

By: spanyo

spanyo — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 00:50:14 +0000

Thanks Newman. When the stock price hits a new low and then starts rising I start to think maybe I should buy more now. But if I have learned anything about this stock, it’s that there is always another better buying opportunity down the road. I imagine that these new lows may stop after Labor day, or at least after Q4 results, but your article has helped to tame that buying urge… for now.

By: kingfrogcash

kingfrogcash — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 23:37:06 +0000

First, could you please use darker fonts, I’m over the age of 40 and it’s painful to read

Institutions knew the deal ownership issues when the deal was announced, that’s their problem.

The debt and cash totals are not settled yet because I don’t believe XM has paid and exchanged their debt.

Until Mel gives new guidance in September, I would write that $300m in pencil.

Mel’s ad people need to update and relaunch that commercial where the car drives into the building. It was only for one of the networks at the time. And I would be more concerened about dead spots especially if XM had to turm off a lot of repeaters with the FCC fine.

I hope they rename the best-of content.
It sounds like repeats rather than simulcst.
Assuming we are talking about simulcast.

By: SiriusIntentions

SiriusIntentions — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 22:26:48 +0000

Jim, I think the credit markets can get worse but the company should be doing better so that should improve their credit rating hopefully.

By: Jim Smith

Jim Smith — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 22:12:14 +0000

The questions going foward are simple…will the credit market get better..( it can’t get worse )….will the car market get better..( It can’t get worse )…..will institutional holding get better…( it can’t get worse )….all these are real issues but realistically if it gets worse equity is done…if it gets better you have anice growing cash producing business…Mel is motivated..I am betting on him…

By: john

john — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 22:10:37 +0000

Newman, when Mel was asked on the Stern show about the next launch after the 2009 one he said they are not planning on another one till 2015. Now it was on the Stern show so grain of salt and all. But I also recall a analyst saying he thinks that 2010 launch would be pushed back to at least 2012.

By: Newman

Newman — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 21:25:02 +0000

Sorry about that! You are indeed correct. Adjusted EBITDA of $300 million, AND positive FCF before CapEx. Sorry about that typo.

By: SiriusIntentions

SiriusIntentions — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 21:11:38 +0000

300 mill in ebitda and positive fcf, not 300 fcf.