Market Watch for 9/28/2009 (Week of)

[Dr. Dave]

LOL,

Now that I'm all fired up... remember when I bought those sets of calls on AMZN right before earnings.. I think I cashed the first 1 or 2 out and had over a 100%+ gain, then I bought the last one, which was pretty pricey (or it was the second one, and I was way up), and I decided to hold over the earnings report, and I think it was Bass that warned me that there was a special report on AMZN on CNBC, and we joked that I shouldn't hold it... then sure enough the stock tanked big time, and I took an immediate whopping 75% loss.

Well - ends up a week or two ago, I found this pattern that I like from playing the chart game. Seems to usually be good for a one day run. So I spotted it on the solar company FSLR which trades over $100, so calls and puts are pricey. I bought 1 contract, but wasn't quite sure, since it's a moody stock that can really swing. Well, I got the final confirmation by doing a quick news search. I found that "The Fools" put out a report that day that said solar is going to tank. That was my ticket that it would break out to the upside the next day.. sure enough the call was $20 from being a double from where I bought it at it's peak. My sleepy ass missed a big part of it, but you get the point.

I'm convinced these media guys are not looking out for my best interest, but at least now, I know which way to trade.

[billhart22]

First I eyeballed the 5 and 15 minute charts to see what those tails on those candles were all about... see if they were traded down and back up, or just some rouge trades. Looks like with the low liquidity, some MM's had some low balls, and as the buyers dried up, they got a fantastic deal. I've actually tried to do that on scottrade, but it won't let me enter the trades, lol.

Anyway, going back 3 months, you have about a 1000% gain on a $0.10 stock... so those $10K in are sitting on $100K. It's in the range then for smoothing out. A little fear of losing it would trigger a downside.

Just a simple glance says it should be a real deal, but I'd wait for consolidation before touching it.

Indicators - while the Wm%R and moving averages are full bore, the stochastics and PPO are rolling over, likely due to the little consolidation on the top.

Support and resistance - those trick drawdowns by the MM's to 0.70 technically say the 0.95-1.00 gap is closed, but it would better to see the gap filled with more trades. If this is to remain a bullish case... I'd wait to see if a pennant arises - that actually includes 0.70 as the low end. Or at least a swooping base that comes down to about that range. Any more than that, I'd say that all bets are off under 0.5, or that you are talking a different game altogether... kind of like QASP. So far, my favorite charts have run ups like these, but base above support or at least above the 38% retractment level, the higher the better.

The candles are suggestive of an immediate pop up, but taking the above into account... I think the reward/risk isn't there to find out.



Can't go on without seeing the weekly to see how dumb what I wrote was... but, if it were me, I wouldn't place the bet on monday... I'd keep an eye on a consolidation of some sort that stays above 0.70. In fact, that's what I'll do, cause I like the run.

That was my exact thought...let it pull back..consolidate and then get in on the next run if it still looks healthy. Thanks, Dave!

I appreciate it!

[Dr. Dave]

That was my exact thought...let it pull back..consolidate and then get in on the next run if it still looks healthy. Thanks, Dave!

I appreciate it!

There's a lot of examples of this pattern. And, they give the opportunity to set stop losses a lot of the time (we'll the brokers won't let you set one.. at least mine don't, but I mean manually). That's the pattern I'm more into trading, the second run ups. That's what I'm waiting for on CBAI. I emailed my buddy ol' pal yesterday saying.. let's see if it holds 0.06, et viola...

Almost would been ok to set a limit in at 0.62 or something, lol.. ahh.. the clarity of hindsight.

[Dr. Dave]

The other play is simply the breakout - but a breakout after a straightline/bottoming of prices - and better, above some form of resistance... these I want to place EOD trades on, like I said when I first joined...

I only had a few minutes to do this with DUTV, as the market closed.

Here's my time stamp, shows why I didn't send out a message, lol...
10/1/2009 3:58:00 PM 10/6/2009



Anyway, see how it broke resistance and had the volume. Going in EOD was key. I almost sold 1/2, at EOD, but the pure white candle kept me in 100%, and I was busy helping (likely bad entry for me), Chuck with his PMU trade...
Look at the time stamp on this:
10/2/2009 3:59:15 PM 10/7/2009 - so if you look at the chart, that's me painting the top of the candle...


Anyway, back to the strategy... DUTV came out ok so far.. as I said, I don't even know what they did at the time... I just used the TA, and got the ticker off that list we compiled a way back... no for an example of what not to do....

BWNR

Here, I bought where the two black arrows were, I think Bass mentioned it and I wanted to get into gold,,, but then didn't see Bass's lvl II warning - but in the meantime, I rushed the trade so fast, that I didn't consider that this thing was still consolidating back down to zero... I just drew the thick blue line tonight... it shows that that blip up that I bought on... which at the time was a solid white candle up to 0.0008, on high volume, was just a run for the intheknows to get out their last bits of cash from the previous run... it's game over now, as far as I can tell, unless gold rallies well above 1000. There was recent trading, but I think it's a done deal... now, had I had my thinking cap on... I would have taken the EOD loss... as the hypothesis of buying EOD whites, was cancelled... in fact, I didn't even buy it EOD. So that goes to show you what being in a rush can do to you, and if you don't follow the plan... the most important thing is to admit you were wrong and exit the trade. So any newbies into quick trades, here is a lesson.. speculating plays are different than quick trade plays, you will be wrong a lot of the time. In speculating, you allow for large down moves in your trades, some even average down.. in quicker trades, you cut your losses. I could have easily gotten out at 0.0005 at the end of the day, after buying in at 0.0007... loss, sure.. but much better than "waiting for it to go up again". My money is tied up, and now on paper, I've been drawn down as low as 0.0002. This is of course my opinion... Chuck seems to be in tune to day trades, we'll see if he cuts losses. He likely has better experience on good entries and plays trading ranges though.

Anyway... here's not what to do...

[Dr. Dave]

Just to be good on that, I set a limit sell on BWNR to get out at 0.0004

[Los Tiburones]

Excerpts from the novel - The Hijacking;
http://viewer.zoho.com/docs/x8Ocy



SAT's office was first located in a condominium owned by DeFreitas and then a townhouse owned by DeFreitas's mother.

Why ... of course!

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Boock (using an alias) or Wong, was duly authorized to revivify the cooperation.

"Revivify" - Just reminded me of the 'Bush-speak' that so often got him slammed in the media ... I.E. 'contamidated ', ' bilatarelations', or the classic, 'misunderestimated '.

Revivify
To impart new life, energy, or spirit to.

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Love the sound of this word, too bad the definition doesn't live up to it;

Disgorgement

Disgorgement is the forced giving up of profits obtained by illegal or unethical acts. A court may order wrongdoers to pay back illegal profits, with interest, to prevent unjust enrichment. Disgorgement is a remedy and not a punishment.

Black's Law Dictionary defines disgorgement as "the act of giving up something (such as profits illegally obtained) on demand or by legal compulsion".


I had something more like a sharp pole being thrust through the chest cavity by shareholders (or "Stake holders" more appropriately) envisioned.

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Enjoining

en·join (n-join)
tr.v. en·joined, en·join·ing, en·joins
1. To direct or impose with authority and emphasis.
2. To prohibit or forbid. See Synonyms at forbid.

This, along with "civil penalties" is the extent or intended result of this whole process? In other words "Stop this illegal activity and pay US (The SEC) a fine."

The word 'restitution' and 'shareholders' are nowhere to be found in these conclusions or 'collusions' is it ... ?


Humor, smarminess aside ...
Still am left wondering, and perhaps Col. Mustard can unearth the 'whodunit' aspects - Where is the knowing or unknowing differences between Hijacker and Hijack-e to coin a term? That has me just slightly ... curious, if some of these companies in question may not have known any of this was going on behind their backs. I remain highly skeptical of that, but ...




PS.
(Some great Bushisms from which I plagiarized - http://www.dubyaspeak.com/grammarian - Remember, I am Republican!)

[Ramsey]

"Republican"

PS.
(Some great Bushisms from which I plagiarized - http://www.dubyaspeak.com/grammarian - Remember, I am Republican!)

[billhart22]

"Republican"

Ah, added the faces, eh? lol

[Ramsey]

I know...I know...

While the rest of the family is taking an afternoon snooze, I logged in to see that he hadn't responded...

So, you know, feeling guilty and concerned that it came across in an un-funny way...yep...added the faces.

***

Then again, maybe that's not such a bright idea --- I've never really considered having a *roommate* named "Bubba" to be a smart move.

***

What's funny is that I had to get married to really know what *guilt* felt like. Man, the hoops that woman can get me to jump through...and by not saying a damned word!

Why, I'd like to bottle *that* up, open a 'store' in Mississippi, and go public with it

I'd start with a "Nevada Corporation"...

***

nothing gets by you, does it Bill ;>)

Ah, added the faces, eh? lol

[Ramsey]

don't know if you Cool Cats posted this last weekend...

Here's a song that's been on my mind a lot, as of late.

Simple Man - Lynyrd Skynyrd

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHQ_aTjXObs

Ramsey