SIRI Intraday Friday 7-17-09

[SiriMonkey]

How is your weekend going Julie?
got a round of golf in this morning,very good round,and we have a block party going on today,just put my son down for a nap an hour ago and killing time till he gets up..

Johnny,

See my post above, #69. That about sums it all up.
Stir crazy. That's why I'm sitting here on a Saturday
afternoon talking to myself. And waiting for the show to begin.
Here.
Nice dog Johnny, I'm jealous.

Julie

[JohnnyIrishXM]

I think those are two very important points, but not the only ones.

1. FCF
2. Sub totals(self pay)
3. Revenue
4. Churn on selfpay
5. Iphone app take rate on 2.99 and new sub.

Those are also extremely important pieces of information. Howard will resign, not even worried about it. And the R/S is a non issue for me till December.

Hey Relmor,agree to these points as being important last week,but now to me the most important thing we need and must have is positive guidance for next 2 q's and beyond to get this SP higher,anything else and it's back to .30 ville for quite A WHILE,imho....iT'S TIME TO LAY THE CARDS on the table and project specifically as best the company can on where it is heading..

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Johnny,

See my post above, #69. That about sums it all up.
Stir crazy. That's why I'm sitting here on a Saturday
afternoon talking to myself. And waiting for the show to begin.
Here.
Nice dog Johnny, I'm jealous.

Julie

I'm sure charles will hook you up with the yellow ribbon if he can,which incidentally is one of my favorite John wayne movies,She wore a Yellow ribbon,so get your popcorn ready and see if relmor wants to debate the Fed and how it is great for this country..

[SiriusXMInvestor]

Thanks for the Italian Mongo.

[relmor2003]

Hey Relmor,agree to these points as being important last week,but now to me the most important thing we need and must have is positive guidance for next 2 q's and beyond to get this SP higher,anything else and it's back to .30 ville for quite A WHILE,imho....iT'S TIME TO LAY THE CARDS on the table and project specifically as best the company can on where it is heading..

Well see. Pros and cons to guidance right now.

[TSavery]

Here in Boston we had a columnist and radio personality that always had a rem that he used for his audience. He called them the "Best And Brightest"

In reading the threads here, and seeing the quality of dialogue and exchange, I feel compelled to borrow the term from Mr.Severin

The SiriusBuzz posters are indeed the Best and Brightest

Thank you all for building a community where good information can be brought up and discussed.

[Sirius Roadkill]

The certified pre-owned channel will be some helpmut not as much as some think. There have been programs in place with certified pre-owned for quite some time. The free trial makes sense, but the take rate , logically speaking, will not be as good as with new cars.

Hey Tyler . . how 'bout modeling a CPO forecast?

Although the CPO program has been in place for quite some time . . the CPO market itself has actually been growing while the OEM channel has been shrinking . . . add to this that the units now finding their way into the CPO channel will reflect increasingly higher install rates as penetration ramped-up in each successive year . . . also, the brands targeted for CPO, many of which are luxury segment, have traditionally enjoyed a higher "take"

2007 saw 1.7mm CPO units sold; '08 was up over that and the last few months of '08 indicated an uptrend at an increasing rate . .

you would need a reasonable projection of the average model year currently being sold in the CPO channel (say 2006) in order to estimate the approximate install rate at that time and a forecast of annualized unit sales for '09 (say at least 1.8mm) . . then go ahead with your take and churn calculations . . . you could go one step further and try to seasonally adjust for Q2 accuracy

can you get to 75,000-100,000 net CPO ads for the qtr without seasonally adjusting?

might not seem like huge #'s here but minimal/nominal subsidy on these is a big plus to the bottom line . . .

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Hey Tyler . . how 'bout modeling a CPO forecast?

Although the CPO program has been in place for quite some time . . the CPO market itself has actually been growing while the OEM channel has been shrinking . . . add to this that the units now finding their way into the CPO channel will reflect increasingly higher install rates as penetration ramped-up in each successive year . . . also, the brands targeted for CPO, many of which are luxury segment, have traditionally enjoyed a higher "take"

2007 saw 1.7mm CPO units sold; '08 was up over that and the last few months of '08 indicated an uptrend at an increasing rate . .

you would need a reasonable projection of the average model year currently being sold in the CPO channel (say 2006) in order to estimate the approximate install rate at that time and a forecast of annualized unit sales for '09 (say at least 1.8mm) . . then go ahead with your take and churn calculations . . . you could go one step further and try to seasonally adjust for Q2 accuracy

can you get to 75,000-100,000 net CPO ads for the qtr without seasonally adjusting?

might not seem like huge #'s here but minimal/nominal subsidy on these is a big plus to the bottom line . . .

Excellent analysis S-kill

,was kind of projecting that number myself without any numbers to go by,by no sac cost per se is huge and no reason in future years it can't go higher and also i beleive it will help OEM churn rate as existing customers trade in cars with SATRADS for now Cars also with satrad as penetration is booming.Beleive that was a problem for subs when trading down for economy.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Here in Boston we had a columnist and radio personality that always had a rem that he used for his audience. He called them the "Best And Brightest"

In reading the threads here, and seeing the quality of dialogue and exchange, I feel compelled to borrow the term from Mr.Severin

The SiriusBuzz posters are indeed the Best and Brightest

Thank you all for building a community where good information can be brought up and discussed.

Thank you Tyler for all you present here,as it is most times very true and factual info,except when john post's about 9-11 and Charles about Slackdora...

P.S.Scorecard:
SXM=600k subs upgrade to premium on -line feed at $2.99 from I-Phone app

Pandora=0 to none...no money changed hands for No .1 app downloaded

[TSavery]

Hey Tyler . . how 'bout modeling a CPO forecast?

Although the CPO program has been in place for quite some time . . the CPO market itself has actually been growing while the OEM channel has been shrinking . . . add to this that the units now finding their way into the CPO channel will reflect increasingly higher install rates as penetration ramped-up in each successive year . . . also, the brands targeted for CPO, many of which are luxury segment, have traditionally enjoyed a higher "take"

2007 saw 1.7mm CPO units sold; '08 was up over that and the last few months of '08 indicated an uptrend at an increasing rate . .

you would need a reasonable projection of the average model year currently being sold in the CPO channel (say 2006) in order to estimate the approximate install rate at that time and a forecast of annualized unit sales for '09 (say at least 1.8mm) . . then go ahead with your take and churn calculations . . . you could go one step further and try to seasonally adjust for Q2 accuracy

can you get to 75,000-100,000 net CPO ads for the qtr without seasonally adjusting?

might not seem like huge #'s here but minimal/nominal subsidy on these is a big plus to the bottom line . . .

There are a few issues with the CPO market. One of the main issues is that consumers are holding onto cars longer now, and the supply chain of cars with low enough miles to be considered for a CPO is getting more constricted.

Another issue is how the subscription gets sold. If the sales person fails to bring up the issue, the consumer may not know that they have a free trial.

Still anaother is that CPO cars are typically under 3 years old. Thus you need to consider the "penetration rate" of that market. In other words, how many of the CPO cars have satellite radio.

I have played around with some numbers, but am not yet ready to publish it yet. Trying to look at it as a whole is difficult with DOZENS of variables. A t this point, the penetration is not a huge number.