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  1. john is offline
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    08-27-2010, 05:56 PM #61
    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    John: " i believe you will really see it drop in Nov., Dec., (just before Democrats let the Bush tax cuts end). You want to see carnage in the
    market wait till capital gains taxes shoot up."

    Should be interesting to see.

    For all those keeping track. Stocks were up 7% in July and are down 4% in August so far.

    Yes once again no link to the quote. Hummm I wonder why????? Not really, because if you did people would see the post that I was answering to (big Ben) and that the market had just taken a huge hit. The point was that while it will go down. I believe it will come back but not to what it was and what you will get is a consistant DOWN and then up swings with the up never coming back to what it was before. Common sense would tell most here that I clearly was not saying that Nov. or Dec would be the BEGINNING of the down turn (because Big Ben thought it was already happening) BUT that is when it would REALLY be "CARNAGE". Anyone with common sense or that has followed what I have said knows there is a difference between when the market will start its down turn and the collapse (or "carnage") of it. You will and have seen the start of the collapse and the fact is when the "CARNAGE" starts you will not just see the market just slide down you will see it drop off a cliff. I also explanned that in that very same thread. So why dont you link to it so it is clear to people instead of lying about it. Once again this is why I call you dishonest and a 12 year old because if you had an onuce of honesty in your body you would at least link to it, You play these games all the time and have been caught in them every time. As for you being a 12 year old that is clear because only a 12 year old could not understand what I have said.


    For the rest if Havasucker would have had linked to the thread OR if you dont remember I also clearly told people that there would be things that could happen that would stop the carnage in the markets. For instance following polocies/steps that would take out the reason for the carnage in the first place (extending the Bush tax cuts).

    For the 12 year olds that means:

    First of all, the republicans taking over a majority of congress (because most democrats will not vote to extend the Bush tax cuts).

    Second, actually putting in the polocies to extend the Bush tax cuts.

    Third, getting that moron not to veto it.

    As each one happens they will supply support to the market but the money knows they still would have to count on the next thing to happen for the tax cuts to stay in place.

    Now for the intelligent people we know for a fact that if the polls showed the democrats had a much better chance at keeping the House and Senate, then the market would actually be way lower at this point. We also know why, because it would mean that even the first step could not happen. Which would end ALL hope of extending the Bush tax cuts. At that point (as was discussed in that very same thread havasucker took my qoute from) the market would start what was explained as everyone trying to get out of a smaller and smaller door or everyone trying to beat the next guy out.



    As for getting political, in this case one directly effects the other. Extending those Bush tax cuts, which will not happen if republicans dont take over congress is not getting political it is common sense and a fact of life and cannot be seperated. Then again, another thing I would not expect a 12 year old to understand.

  2. SiriuslyLong is offline
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    08-27-2010, 06:07 PM #62
    Since you bring up the Bush tax cuts, "news outlets" are reporting that many dems are starting to think the other way as they want to get re-elected LOL.

    This actually pisses me off as I dumped some long positions and picked up a short position earlier in the week, and now there is "good news" for the market to rally on. $hit.

    I posted the other good news earlier LOFL.

  3. Havakasha is offline
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    08-27-2010, 06:26 PM #63
    Hey wild and Crazy guy.
    OK so let me see if i follow you.
    The real "carnage" ("really be 'carnage' ") will happen in Nov or Dec? Describe that carnage in terms of numbers please.
    So are there any things that will stop the carnage other than extending the Bush tax cuts, not
    raising the capital gains and Republicans taking over the House (We ALREADY know Republican will get close or actually take over the House). Please name them now. Or are you just saying you will decide at the time and call that a reason for the carnage not happening. In other words you will decide somehow you precicted everything no matter what happens? LMFAO.

    1.If the Bush tax cuts are rescinded for the top 2% then tell me what going over the cliff means and tell us for how long it will stay over the cliff.
    2.When they raise capital gains (5% i believe) tell me about the market carnage you predict and for how long that will continue?

    Tell me nicely now without a hint of child abuse.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 08-27-2010 at 07:26 PM.

  4. Havakasha is offline
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    08-27-2010, 06:30 PM #64
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    Since you bring up the Bush tax cuts, "news outlets" are reporting that many dems are starting to think the other way as they want to get re-elected LOL.

    This actually pisses me off as I dumped some long positions and picked up a short position earlier in the week, and now there is "good news" for the market to rally on. $hit.

    I posted the other good news earlier LOFL.
    As far as i know it is the Conservative Dems who are worried about the end of the Bush tax cuts because they are concerned about their political careers. It remains to be seen how many there are in that camp and what they want to happen exactly.
    You see S&L playing the market based on political machinations has its downside. Be careful of following John's predictions as well. You could get burned. LoL
    Last edited by Havakasha; 08-27-2010 at 06:58 PM.

  5. SiriuslyLong is offline
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    08-27-2010, 06:57 PM #65
    Thanks for the advice. Fortunately or unfortunately, I march to my own tune (maybe toon as it turns out.) Political mechanations? I can't agree to that. The economy sucks and continues to suck, and ain't going anywhere fast. There is real reason to be be bearish.

    Though, as a counter point, my companies business albeit a little down, is still pretty good all things considered - which means companies are making things -- for now.

  6. Havakasha is offline
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    08-27-2010, 07:05 PM #66
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    Thanks for the advice. Fortunately or unfortunately, I march to my own tune (maybe toon as it turns out.) Political mechanations? I can't agree to that. The economy sucks and continues to suck, and ain't going anywhere fast. There is real reason to be be bearish.

    Though, as a counter point, my companies business albeit a little down, is still pretty good all things considered - which means companies are making things -- for now.
    If its John talking, it would be "toone". I agree the reason to be bearish is the economy and not what John predicts about capital gains, bush tax cuts and Republicans not winning the House. When i said political machinations i was referring to what i thought was your bet based on what was happening with Bush tax cuts. Maybe i misunderstood but it was kind of a joke anyway.
    There are no doubts many companies balance sheets are quite good. Its the high unemployment rate wihich i believe is really causing the pain and its reverberations.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 08-27-2010 at 07:17 PM.

  7. SiriuslyLong is offline
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    08-27-2010, 07:21 PM #67
    Quote Originally Posted by Havakasha View Post
    If its John talking its "toone". I agree the reason to be bearish is the economy and not what John predicts about capital gains, bush tax cuts and Republicans not winning the House. When i said political machinations i was referring to what i thought was your bet based on what was happening with Bush tax cuts. Maybe i misunderstood but it was kind of a joke anyway.
    There are no doubts many companies balance sheets are quite good. Its the high unemployment rate wihich i believe is really causing the pain and its reverberations.
    Unemployment + housing. One cannot underestimate the power of housing. Buy a new house, all of a sudden you need a new carpet, new HVAC, new paint, new furniture, new washer / dryer, remodeled kitchen, landscaping..... I'm married; I know this to be fact lol. Key resistance to my wife wanting a "vacation home" in northern MI (though it is appealing and the kids would love it).

  8. Havakasha is offline
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    08-27-2010, 07:27 PM #68
    Yes, housing as well. Once the housing bubble popped it was clear housing was headed down for a long time to come. i just read that consumer debt is at an 8 year low so consumers are dong rational things by avoiding debt but its certainly going to have reverberations in the economy.
    Last edited by Havakasha; 08-27-2010 at 07:30 PM.

  9. just sirius is offline
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    08-27-2010, 11:45 PM #69
    Lloyd...be careful...your starting to sound more and more like a closet conservative!!

    Now if only Congress and the mighty "O" can just put away the credit card for a couple of years...maybe...just maybe...we can start to dig our way out of this death spiral!

    JS

  10. SiriuslyLong is offline
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    08-28-2010, 08:51 AM #70
    Love your "avatar" Just Sirius. Where might I find something similar? I was thinking something like "NObama" or "Got Big Government?". Actually, I'm thinking of desiging something myself striking an independent note. Maybe start a movement LOL.

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