Over 1500, I am bullish on the Nasdaq again until it drops below 1500. It would be sweet if it could hold the 1490 support.
Good call, Demian!
The DOW is still bearish below 8500, but seems to be closing in, at least for now.
Last edited by billhart22; 01-15-2009 at 03:30 PM.
We will see if I made a good call or not when the market closes.....
would like thoughts...
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When Will Sirius XM File for Bankruptcy?
By Rick Aristotle Munarriz
January 15, 2009 | Comments (6)
Recs
Motley Fool Pro
Crack open the death pool. It's time to start taking bets on when Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) will file for bankruptcy.
So, when exactly will Sirius XM file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization?
I'll tell you my answer. You'll laugh. I'll explain. You'll probably keep laughing.
In short, I don't see Sirius XM filing for bankruptcy protection this year.
Made you snicker, didn't I? It's probably because the battered stock is certainly priced as if the end is near. $0.12 at the close last night? You can't be serious.
However, there are plenty of reasons for Sirius XM not to give up on its common shareholders without a fight. It's also telegraphing signals -- like last night's SEC filing -- that indicate that the satellite radio provider is going to try to renegotiate its way out of this year's burdensome debt repayment milestones.
Rank and file
In an 8-K filing yesterday, Sirius indicated that it will exchange $13 million of the convertible note debt that is due next month for 100 million freshly minted shares. Diluting shareholders by printing a ton of new stock at $0.13 a share is certainly not ideal. It will weigh down the stock's eventual recovery. However, at this juncture, it's better to see Sirius take hits on its income statement rather than on its balance sheet.
It's not the first time that Sirius has swapped out its debt obligations for Sirius XM stock. With $174.6 million still to account for of the original $300 million convertible note that is payable next month, the company has been nibbling away at its debt load in earnest in recent weeks.
Shareholders granted Sirius the flexibility to issue as many as 3.5 billion new shares last month. A reverse stock split was also authorized, and may be necessary if Sirius winds up bloating its float to the point of never having a feasible shot at trading in the upper single digits again. You won't find too many fans of reverse stock splits, but there is at least one success story that went down that road in priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN).
The key takeaway here is that the company is using its power to print stock as a "get out of jail free" card for its February milestone. The rub is that it has two biggies still waiting:
In May, $350 million in XM bank debt comes due.
In December, a $400 million XM convertible must be repaid.
May day
Work the math and you'll soon realize that even if all of Sirius' creditors warmed up to stock for cash, what remains of the $3.5 billion authorization won't get it past its May hurdle at its current share price.
Fate may be kind here. The moment it becomes clear that Sirius isn't going to file for bankruptcy protection in response to next month's tollbooth, speculators may start to file in. There are certainly plenty of other catalysts that may warm investors over the next four months:
Sirius XM will report its first two complete quarters as a merged public company. If it's still on track to achieve operating free cash flow, upticks may happen.
MiRGE, the first receiver that will be able to broadcast all of Sirius and all of XM, should be out before then. The move gives Sirius XM a shot to matter again in the aftermarket. Chains like Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), RadioShack (NYSE: RSH), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) all sell aftermarket satellite radio receivers, but have had little to crow about given the confusion between the two services and the content consolidation. The first interoperable receiver may change that, creating renewed buzz at the retail level.
Domestic automakers Chrysler, General Motors (NYSE: GM), and Ford (NYSE: F) -- all partners with a vested interest in moving car receiver sign-ups -- may begin to bounce back with the governmental assist.
The next four months will be critical. If Sirius XM can't get its stock price moving higher after all of these potential catalysts play out, filing for Chapter 11 may be its only way out.
I still don't see it happening because the move would deflate morale at the company and create a defection of subscribers who don't understand that bankruptcy reorganization may wipe out common shareholders, but not kill the product itself.
Either way, these next four months will dictate the gamble that owning Sirius XM shares has become.
my thoughts? bottom of the ninth 2 outs and mel's up to bat
Ray,
Please try to post a link to the original when posting articles.......thanks!
Here is the link to that Motley Fool article....
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/...ankruptcy.aspx
This sounds interesting.....
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/090115/ny59532.html?.v=1
Press Release Source: SIRIUS XM Radio
SIRIUS XM Radio To Broadcast Howard Stern-Paul McCartney Special This Weekend
Thursday January 15, 3:26 pm ET
New and provocative conversations between Howard Stern and Paul McCartney to air all weekend on Howard 101
Stern and McCartney go in-depth on the legend's life, The Beatles and his new Fireman album "Electric Arguments"
Man, are you guys fast. I just logged on to share the Motley Fool article. It's good to see some positive press for sure, but Sirius is going to have to keep positive actions coming to get it.
With 2 strikes and "The rocket" coming from the bullpen...Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos
DJ Audiovox Finalizes Distribution Pact With Sirius XM Radio
. Ê DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Ê Audiovox Electronics Corp. (VOXX) on Thursday said it has finalized a distribution agreement with Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI). Ê Under the agreement, the consumer electronics provider will have the right to distribute, market and sell Sirius products to consumer electronics retailers and auto dealer groups in North America, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Ê Audiovox Chief Executive Patrick Lavelle has said the Hauppauge, N.Y., company expects its satellite radio sales to more than double in 2009. Ê The deal was first announced on Dec. 30.
Ê -By David J. Reynolds; Dow Jones Newswires
This article says what I have been saying since who knows when and it has always been taken negatively...
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