SIRI Monthly Thread October 2015 (with NFL Chat)

[bdp.]

Nice sell SI..congrats man....seems like many here are finally starting to cash in!

And that will signal the sp to continue to rise.

[user34615145]

yes, DM and Midas, please just email each other with your garbage remarks. now 185 pages with about 15 pages of stock talk.

I don't mind....sure I have about 150 pages of "this message is hidden due to ignore status" but it's just no value garbage I wouldn't have read anyhow. Now, fwiw, I have asked Charles several times if someone could write some kind of mini program that would eliminate those messages too, leaving behind only the comments that I can see. So far, nothing. Not even a response, much less any changes, and I really doubt Charles even checks this room except about once a month cause he's a busy guy with a whole site to update, administer and police, so I just soldier on. Like I said, it's not so bad once you get used to it.

[radejs]

Nothing has really changed. Continued hard volatility (north and south), just like we have seen. Not so much intra-day, more of a swing trade(s) opportunity. Still short term from a tax basis.

1) US remains a 'bright' spot. Tech and Aerospace great, but all is not perfect. SnP earnings still need to come down more, especially for energy. We may see some more BK's if oil stays down. Plus we have a big wave of refinancing coming in that sector, which is why watching high yield debt is important. Also, we are nearing the end of the credit cycle. Need to watch subprime home and auto and the read through to the banks. Late payments are increasing, more so in subprime autos.

2) If China is growing @ '6.9%' they would not be throwing the kitchen sink at it.

3) BOJ won't make a move on additional QE Friday. Not until December FED rate hike is officially off the table. Plus the juice from PBOC and ECB have not fully worn off yet. Best guess, next month at some point.

4) Brazil and the rest of the EM and commodity currencies will have another leg down as the FED rate raise chatter picks back up. No rate hike from the FED had eased some of the pressure, but PBOC, ECB and [soon] BOJ are still adding punch to the punch bowl which [eventually] this will show up in the dollar. See #5

5) FED can't/won't raise rates while the rest of the CB's are running QE type operations. Actually them standing pat while everyone else is printing has a tightening effect via the dollar. I don't see a window to raise rates until mid to late in 2016. The party will continue until we all realize the reason why rates can't be raised. Just because they can't raise does not mean rate raise chatter won't be in the news.

6) The US has given the middle east to Russia. Oil is both a demand issue and a supply issue, it will remain low for an extended period of time, exuding an event of proxy war turning to hot war OR the Saudis blinking.

Edit: added #7
7) Debt ceiling, it will get kicked yet again.

Hot war changes everything.

Great summary, valuable post, thanks Waldo!

[denco1]

I don't trust "these guys", whoever they are that are controlling the SP movement, to the upside or downside. Been a victim to both sides over the years. Have suffered through the hard core retrace pain but have also pulled the trigger a bit too early for my situation, and watched them take it up well beyond my expectations. A few years back right before the breakout to 2.44 they did much of the same and held the SP in check. On CC day PM the took it down on average #s to about the 1.86 if I remember correctly, only to march it up strong going into the opening bell and over $2 by days end. I sold too many in the pm march up and felt I was chasing for the next 3 weeks. Just one example....of many.

Now, I am going to sit tight and assist the buy back by continuing to trade blocks until I see a new higher established range. At that point I will give them what they want.......some of my core. 4.50 + for me......maybe 10-15%. All our situations are different. This is just how I am playing it....

[dm_4]

I don't mind....sure I have about 150 pages of "this message is hidden due to ignore status" but it's just no value garbage I wouldn't have read anyhow. Now, fwiw, I have asked Charles several times if someone could write some kind of mini program that would eliminate those messages too, leaving behind only the comments that I can see. So far, nothing. Not even a response, much less and change and I really doubt Charles even checks this room except about once a month cause he's a busy guy with a whole site to update, administer and police, so I just soldier on. Like I said, it's not so bad once you get used to it.

dough boy is user.

[radejs]

I see RAD is here.....WHATS UP RAD!!

Looks like a little SIRI move brings back some of the VETS

Hey Denco, thanks for asking. How the heck are you?

Trading quite a bit less than I used too but I still look to you, Bassman and others on this board for insight on trading opportunities with SIRI. It has been a good ride, one of my better money makers. Now I just need the world to realize AAPL is undervalued and I will be REALLY happy!

[user34615145]

I don't trust "these guys", whoever they are that are controlling the SP movement, to the upside or downside. Been a victim to both sides over the years. Have suffered through the hard core retrace pain but have also pulled the trigger a bit too early for my situation, and watched them take it up well beyond my expectations. A few years back right before the breakout to 2.44 they did much of the same and held the SP in check. On CC day PM the took it down on average #s to about the 1.86 if I remember correctly, only to march it up strong going into the opening bell and over $2 by days end. I sold too many in the pm march up and felt I was chasing for the next 3 weeks. Just one example....of many.

Now, I am going to sit tight and assist the buy back by continuing to trade blocks until I see a new higher established range. At that point I will give them what they want.......some of my core. 4.50 + for me......maybe 10-15%. All our situations are different. This is just how I am playing it....

It's good to have an exit plan denco....a strategy. The challenge is sticking with it and keeping your sell discipline as the price rises. We all know, from hard won experience it can go down a lot faster than it went up - certainly not just SIRI, but all stocks. Usually I would ask "why not sell the covered call at say, $4.50 and get paid to wait?" Usually this strategy has the added benefit of enforcing your sell discipline because as the stock price rises it starts to cost more and more to buy the calls back, which is usually a deterrent. But in the case of SIRI, there is really no premium offered at $4.50....not until you go out to march16 and even then it's not even a dime. Too much can happen in the next 5 months to make that a worthwhile transaction.
I guess another way to look at that is that the "smart money" isn't willing to pay up too much to lock in $4.50 so they must not feel very confident that it's gonna get there anytime soon....anyway, that's my $.02

Can we go back to talking about football and stuff now? Cause that's all the acquired SIRI wisdom I've got to share.

[denco1]

Hey Denco, thanks for asking. How the heck are you?

Trading quite a bit less than I used too but I still look to you, Bassman and others on this board for insight on trading opportunities with SIRI. It has been a good ride, one of my better money makers. Now I just need the world to realize AAPL is undervalued and I will be REALLY happy!

Great RAD...trading it successfully and sometimes not but still here with core in hand waiting for the REAL move. Glad everything is going well with you. GL and hope to see you around more often.

[dm_4]

Looks like they are working her down into the close.....be nice if they let it close above $4.02

[bdp.]

Sold 30k more shares at $4.08.