How did qasp finish up today - you made a good choice with 0.034, I looked at the chart earlier today... going a penny shy of each 0.05 level is likely the way to go to make sure you have liquidity - you saw what happened to my ASFX order at 0.049, too close to the 0.050 target - price went higher, but no liquidity. QASP has a much narrower range, so 0.34 was the best number I figure.
candle , dave, you guys are lucky.... im stuck at an avg of .15 for my contracts
dont know if i should worry or not, but i did buy hoping that Q4 report would do something if that Q3 was a dud...so i still have some firepower left for a profit or a breakeven.. gl all.
I was only looking into getting 20 contracts - money management you know - with the price is where it's at, I'm forecasting bumping $1.08 before earnings.
The fact that earnings came in at 0 this quarter, and with xmas and such coming up, can see perhaps a run by the next earnings season.
But here's the thing with options, they are soo tricky, that if you do have a chance to yank your original out, do so. Remember, it's not just the price that moves them, but the volatility. So, if SIRI makes a strong move up (like a spike), the option will increase in price based on that besides the siri pps - so if you're worried about taking some money off the table - time it on a spike. If we do get some run up in the 70's or 80's you should be pretty good for taking a profit.
Right now, you can see the volatility is really low, so the price is deflated because of that... the candles are tiny, nasdaq isn't looking to hot at the moment, etc. AAPL is pulling back - broke it's trendline today (I got out of that on friday I think)... but AAPL should rally before it's earnings, as - iphones and their other products had a lot of strength last xmas - so that should lift the nasdaq and other tech plays.
Andy - usually I don't like to pipe in on what to do specifically - especially to people who hunt, lol - but this time, I'd just like to say my opinion is to plan your exits on a technical, fundamental or speculative price that you think is a decent qasp target, and not on a price based on where you personally want your profits to be. Does that make sense? ie. I'd like to just have what it takes to make a down payment on a home in san diego, but I'm not holding onto all my plays until that happens, just the good ones. Just trying to help. It's all my opinion, but sometimes I think concentrating on the dollars or results (especially with a lot riding on them) as opposed to the stock's fundamentals/technicals and its price itself makes your trading too emotional and whacky - at least it does for me. That's it. Sounds like you are going to play it depending on the action - but just wanted to throw it out there for you, and perhaps anyone else.
Example of volatility and the price - I actually have had my order in for about 3 weeks - I couldn't get a fill at 0.05 until today. I dropped it from 20 to 10 contracts a few trading days ago - but regardless - the siri stock price is higher today to buy contracts at 0.05 at times, then it was during the last few weeks where I couldn't get a fill unless I went to 0.10... I know, cause I couldn't get a fill - or maybe I was in line for so long... that's not true either, because when I modified the order, it canceled the previous - so strike that - basically, the lull in volatility made it possible for me to finally get a fill. You can see that a price for siri stock of 0.60 was almost hit in the last few weeks several times, and my order wasn't taken. I'll likely try to get another 20 tomorrow - and make it 30. That's still within a money management range that I'm ok with. I'm not the greatest with buying options for more than 1-3 days. So until I learn, I'm not putting up a lot of dough, but I think the probabilities are good at coming out ok.
Last edited by Dr. Dave; 12-07-2009 at 06:48 PM.
Dave, thanks for the input...I understand what your saying, I really do. It's just I still haven't grasped some of the technical aspects of reading those charts to try and figure out good entry and exit points on any of my picks, so have relied on just what my gut tells me to do. My gut feeling is QASP wil probably pullback a little tomorrow and continue to move north until the 15th, unless something is leaked before hand.
By no means am I counting my chickens ($$$$) before they hatch, so to speak. I can dream about where I want this pps to be at, can't I? As long as I'm not putting ernest money down on that million dollar home I've been eyeing, right? Im in the green now and if my gut is wrong, I know what pps I will be happy with if it does start to head south, so I won't cry if I don't hit it big with this one.
Thanks again, Andy
Last edited by Alaska Guy; 12-07-2009 at 08:32 PM.