Originally Posted by
Sirius Roadkill
Several analysts provided upbeat pre-earnings comments today:
Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Harrigan repeated his Hold rating, but lifted his target price to $1.25, from $1. He adds that a sustained recovery in U.S. auto sales to the 12 million unit annual rate would push his valuation estimate up to $1.50. He expects Q1 sales of $672.9 million with EBITDA of $138.2 million and “essentially break-even” EPS. He estimates ARPU at $11.06, and subscriber acquisition costs of $64.36.
Barrington Research analyst James Goss this morning repeated his Outperform rating on the shares; he also see a break-even quarter, with revenue of $682.2 million Goss writes that one potential catalyst for the stock could be inclusion in in stock indexes that had removed the shares as the stock price tumbled. Goss keeps his $1.25 target.
Lazard Capital analyst Barton Crockett repeated his Buy rating and $1.35 target. He sees revenue of $666 million, adjusted EBIRDA of $137 million and a profit of a penny a share. Crockett thinks the company will raise its full-year 2010 EBITDA guidance from the current $550 million to $600 million or higher.
Satellite Standard Group analyst Spencer Osborne, in his usual wait-and-see style, does not offer a price target but sees revenue of $704-$712 million, adjusted income from operations of $120-$135 million and EPS of breakeven to a 1 penny profit. Osborne, perhaps the only analyst who actually understands the fundamental metrics of the company, estimates ARPU of $11 and subscriber acquisition costs of $70.
I spoke earlier with with an exhausted Osborne, who will be anchoring live coverage of the conference call tomorrow morning beginning at 7:00 A.M. eastern on Sirius Buzz Radio, who said, "overall the call will carry a positive tone, and should be well received, in particular if they are able to report a positive EPS. The focus will be on guidance, growth, and better economic conditions."