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Thread: Sirius Cash

  1. #1
    Keysmark is offline
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    Sirius Cash

    I took this from Yahoo Financial Page on SIRI:

    Balance Sheet
    Total Cash (mrq): 220.60M

    Now, if they owe $250 million for the Feb converts, and they have $220 million, they only need to find another $30 million.

    One would expect that they could do that!

  2. #2
    jmm232 is offline
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    Do yourself a favor and do not base anything on Yahoo's stats. They are showing Sirius-only stats for some items. Also, you are discluding certain lines of credit the company has. As of last quarter, the combined companies should have about 450M cash + credit lines.

  3. #3
    Keysmark is offline
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    JMM,

    Thanks for your reply. This was meant as a positive comment to indicate that we should be able to meet the Feb. payment.

    Your data indicates that we have more than we need for Feb.

    However, if that is the case, why did we just dilute the company with the recent $50 million in stock exchanges?

    If only we knew! I believe that is the source of most of the frustration. We just have no clue what is going on.

    Keysmark

  4. #4
    winagain35 is offline
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    Keys,
    The company had about $440mil at the close of Q2. We'll find out how much they have left next week. My guess is that they will have burned through 60 or 80 million with severance packages, legal fees, merger related costs as well as basic operating expenses. They can't spend all their cash on hand to pay the Feb converts, because they're not yet cash flow positive. They need the cash for operations, especially with the economy slowing. Most have been expecting a cash flow positive Q4, but with yesterday's bad news from GM - who knows.

    I still think the "best of" packages and subscription renewals should push us into the black for Q4 - but Q1... that's a different story. We'll know a lot more after we hear what Mel has to say next week.

  5. #5
    sxminvestor is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by Keysmark View Post
    JMM,

    Thanks for your reply. This was meant as a positive comment to indicate that we should be able to meet the Feb. payment.

    Your data indicates that we have more than we need for Feb.

    However, if that is the case, why did we just dilute the company with the recent $50 million in stock exchanges?

    If only we knew! I believe that is the source of most of the frustration. We just have no clue what is going on.

    Keysmark
    This was Sirius cash at the end of Q2.

    Where was XM at the end of Q2 and what did they both spend in this quarter and what will they need in 4th & 1st Q next year.

    Understand they are still bleeding $, not generarting cash and on top of this, they have all this debt that is due and must be paid by way of selling shares and hopefully by some miracle getting a term loan for May debt. Even the December debt is going to be a bigger problem than Mel proclaimed because the economy is worse, car sales, retail look like they will be abysmal for a while.

  6. #6
    Greenland is offline
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    hi guys

    when does Sirius announce their Q3 numbers ?

    thanks !

  7. #7
    sxminvestor is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by Greenland View Post
    when does Sirius announce their Q3 numbers ?

    thanks !

    It must be next week sometime, but they have not released a date on a press release yet.

  8. #8
    homer985 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by sxminvestor View Post
    Where was XM at the end of Q2 and what did they both spend in this quarter and what will they need in 4th & 1st Q next year.
    Sirius reported cash of $220 million and XM reported cash of $183 million, plus the $150 million GM credit facility; combined it is $400 million in cash and over $550 million in available liquidity -- as of June 30, 2008.

    The combined cash burn has traditionally been in the $40~50 million range during Q3; but they did have some closing costs and the FCC fines to pay. It is likely that this will cause cash burn, I believe, up to near $100 million.

    This will have left $300 million cash, plus the GM facility (and the Loral $100 million facility, for that matter too).

    Q4 has traditionally been a strong positive FCF quarter for the combined company -- I see no reason for that not to continue this year, even with the slower economy. The tough part will be Q1 and then Q2 of next year, as the numerous severence packages continue to get paid out.



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    Last edited by homer985; 11-04-2008 at 07:45 PM.

  9. #9
    sxminvestor is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    Sirius reported cash of $220 million and XM reported cash of $183 million, plus the $150 million GM credit facility; combined it is $400 million in cash and over $550 million in available liquidity -- as of June 30, 2008.

    The combined cash burn has traditionally been in the $40~50 million range during Q3; but they did have some closing costs and the FCC fines to pay. It is likely that this will cause cash burn, I believe, up to near $100 million.

    This will have left $300 million cash, plus the GM facility (and the Loral $100 million facility, for that matter too).

    Q4 has traditionally been a strong positive FCF quarter for the combined company -- I see no reason for that not to continue this year, even with the slower economy. The tough part will be Q1 and then Q2 of next year, as the numerous severence packages continue to get paid out.



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    Homer -

    First and 2nd quarter is where they need the most $. In addition, you mention 4th quarter being strong positive cash flow for combined co. I agree Sirius had strong cash flow last year, but not XM. XM was still negative cash flow, so combined and with the slow down, I don't believe it will be that good. Maybe XM had alot of one-time charges, getting out of AOL & Starbucks deals ?

    Why do you think the severence packages kick in next year and not this 3rd and 4th, where layoffs and firing are mostly happenning ? Please explain.

  10. #10
    homer985 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by sxminvestor View Post
    XM was still negative cash flow, so combined and with the slow down, I don't believe it will be that good. Maybe XM had alot of one-time charges, getting out of AOL & Starbucks deals ?

    Why do you think the severence packages kick in next year and not this 3rd and 4th, where layoffs and firing are mostly happenning ? Please explain.
    Most of the negative cashflow in Q4 was XM getting out of several deals, which they had to buy out of. That is not indicative of what will happen this year, IMHO. And from what I understand, it was more than just Starbucks; there were others not publicized. Also, Q3/Q4 last year saw GM installing and selling a HUGE increase in vehicles with XM... that was very costly to XM on the SAC/CPGA front.

    I believe Q4 will be better than many think. Remember, the killer for XM on their cashflow is paying GM on installs/sales. With GM crashing in sales, yes that will hurt XM on their sub numbers and somewhat on revenue -- but with fewer sales comes fewer SAC/CPGA charges. That aspect has been completely overlooked. This is a direct benefit to cashflow during the quarter.

    As I recall, severance packages nowadays are paid out over time -- not necessarily all at one time. At least that's how my company does it now. I believe they last deep into Q1 for XM employees.


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