SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 11/03/08

[Demian]

Every SIRI news report is incorrectly stating that there is $300 million due in Feb. when it is $250 million after the recent stock for debt exchanges......what horrible reporting!

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/11/sirius-focus-is.html

November 06, 2008
SIRIUS Focus Issues: Guidance or Refinancing? (SIRI)

Making calls on financial guidance and modeling for the future right now beyond a quarter is no longer an art which is easily mastered by many. It is now guesswork or financial alchemy. So how is that a speculative and consumer dependent company such as SIRIUS XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) can issue a 5-year projection? For better or worse, and for criticism or speculation, that is exactly what Mel Karmazin and friends did at SIRIUS XM this morning.

For starters, the company is in talks with several financial institutions over a financing to replace its 2.5% convertible notes which mature in 2009. We previously noted that that was roughly $1.1 billion due in 2009, with $300 million due in February. SIRIUS has come out and confirmed that the current climate is hurting its operations, as if you wouldn't have been able to guess that. It cites the dramatic and recent slow down in auto sales and said it will negatively affect subscriber growth for this year and next.

SIRIUS now expects to end 2008 with 19.1 million subscribers and expects to end 2009 with 20.6 million subscribers, yet it is sticking with its prior revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2008 and 2009. We reviewed our prior notes and saw that the company had offered up guidance of 19.5 million subscribers for 2008-end and 21.5 million for 2009-end. Here are the new targets for the year ahead:

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Subscribers in millions; dollar amounts in billions)
Subscribers 20.6 22.1 24.0 26.2 28.4
Revenue $2.7 $3.0 $3.4 $3.8 $4.1
Adj. EBITDA $0.3 $0.6 $0.9 $1.3 $1.5
Free Cash Flow $0.0 $0.4 $0.6 $1.0 $1.4

As far as revenues and other issues, Mel Karmazin had given prior targets of $2.4 billion in 2008 revenues and $2.7 billion in 2009. Here is a link to the full prior guidance. Last month we questioned how likely a refinance would be for its debt maturity. There has also been a new shareholder class action suite which is gaining traction. That suit addresses speculation that Mel Karmazin may take the company private and we have noted how it may have to do a reverse split to keep its listing in 2009.

Mel Karmazin can easily change these numbers if economic weakness drags on and on for a long time rather than a garden variety recession. But it is nearly baffling that SIRIUS would maintain this sort of growth when you factor in all of the economic numbers we are seeing and with the state of the US auto disaster we are witnessing. These are words we fear he might have to eat, sooner rather than later.

[Demian]

I sent the author of the Bloomberg article an email this morning and he finally fixed the article.....

To: jcallan2@bloomberg.net

James,

There is an big error in your recent article "Sirius XM in Talks to Refinance Debt, Cuts Forecast (Update2)." In the article you state that SIRI "faces $1.1 billion in loan repayments in 2009, including $300 million in convertible bonds in February."

This is not correct. SIRI has just recently exchanged $50 million of those Feb. '09 converts with stock. That brings the Feb.'09 convert debt down to $250 million - not $300 miilion and not $1.1 billion for '09...

Please fix the error with a correction as soon as possible!

Thank you,

Demian

Here is the new corrected article.......
It's funny how they call it an "update" and not a "correction"....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...4wI&refer=news

Sirius XM in Talks to Refinance Debt, Cuts Forecast (Update3)
By James Callan

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Sirius XM Radio Inc., the only U.S. pay-radio broadcaster, said it's in talks with banks to refinance debt due next year and lowered its forecast for subscriber growth after U.S. car sales plummeted.

The company is seeking to replace 2.5 percent convertible notes due next year, Sirius XM said in a statement today. It faces about $1 billion in loan repayments in 2009, including $250 million in convertible bonds in February.

Sirius XM's subscriber growth relies on U.S. auto sales, which plunged for the 12th straight month in October. Shares of Sirius XM, led by Chief Executive Officer Mel Karmazin, have traded below $1 since Sept. 10 amid the economic contraction and the biggest slowdown in consumer spending in 28 years.

``Mel Karmazin is making the best of a bad situation that seems to have gotten worse because of economic conditions which are beyond his control,'' Fred Moran, a Boca Raton, Florida-based analyst with Stanford Financial Group, said in an interview. ``Refinancing this debt will be an uphill battle.'' Moran recommends holding on to the shares and doesn't own any.

Sirius XM, home to Howard Stern and the National Football League, rose 1 cent to 27 cents at 2:43 p.m. in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares had plunged 91 percent this year before today.

Chief Executive Officer Mel Karmazin's $2.76 billion all- stock purchase of XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. in July created a company with more than 18.5 million subscribers. Sirius XM today predicted 19.1 million subscribers by year-end, less than its earlier forecast for 19.5 million, and lowered the 2009 projection to 20.6 million from 21.5 million.

`Dramatic'

``Current economic conditions, particularly the dramatic and recent slowdown in auto sales, have negatively impacted subscriber growth for 2008 and 2009,'' Sirius XM said in the statement. The company reiterated its forecast for adjusted earnings of $300 million in 2009 on revenue of $2.7 billion.

U.S. auto sales plummeted 32 percent in October in what General Motors Corp. called the worst month for the industry since 1945 after accounting for population growth. Reduced access to loans and a weaker economy kept people away from car dealerships. Sirius XM has agreements with automakers to preinstall its satellite radios in vehicles.

`Hostile Market'

``The threat of refinancing debt in hostile market conditions is the biggest issue weighing on the stock,'' James Goss, an analyst with Barrington Research in Chicago, said in an interview. ``The biggest challenge is the debt issue and they seem confident, but it's not entirely under their control.'' Goss rates the shares ``outperform'' and doesn't own any.

Credit terms have loosened recently. The benchmark London interbank offered rate, what banks charge each other for three- month loans in dollars, dropped today to 2.39 percent, the lowest level in four years, after reaching a 12-month high of 5.15 on Dec. 5.

Last month, Sirius announced it was issuing more stock to pay down $50 million of its $300 million in February 2009 notes and asked shareholders to approve a reverse split. That was a change from August, when Karmazin said the company had no plans for a reverse split.

The Federal Communications Commission voted 3-2 on July 25 to approve the merger of the XM and Sirius. Concerned that traditional radio operators might get a judge to block the combination, Sirius struck an ``ugly'' debt deal to quickly complete the purchase of Washington-based XM, Karmazin said in August.

To contact the reporter on this story: James Callan in New York at jcallan2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 6, 2008 14:49 EST

[Demian]

The Motley Fools are at it again.......although they do point out at least some positives this time along with their usual slamming....

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...n-5-years.aspx

Can Sirius XM Make You Rich in 5 Years?
By Rick Aristotle Munarriz November 6, 200

------------------------------------------------------------------

On November 06, 2008, at 3:54 PM, DemianBohemian wrote:
I know that the Motley Fool can't make you rich - that is for sure...
The Motley Fool recommended XM to it's paid subscribers at over $30 a share and have been bashing the combined company on a daily basis down in the pennies. SIRI is a steal down at this level....

[Demian]

http://www.satellitetoday.com/satn/features/25299.html

Analyst: Sirius May Have to Renegotiate Content-Related Contracts to Survive
Jeffrey Hill
November 6, 2008

"[Satellite News 11-06-08] Lucrative contract offers from Sirius XM Satellite Radio to its on-air content are key drivers of the company’s reported massive debt and may have to be renegotiated before they are up for renewal according to industry analyst, Tim Farrar."

[Demian]

What a bunch of ****ing BS!

Those bastards tanked SIRI from .28 to .26 on the last 5 ticks right at the close - way below the bid and the ask!

SIRI closed down .0001 @ .26 on volume of about 57.5 million.....

Can you say "manipulation"?

Something crooked is going on here...

[Keysmark]

Did you notice the trading at the close. The last 10 min the stock soared from .265 to .288 on big volume.

That last tick at .26 means nothing, IMO. There was a block right after that of about 1.5 million at .288. Now back over .28 in AH.

[Demian]

http://www.dmwmedia.com/news/2008/11...enture-partner

Former XM Head Hugh Panero Joins NEA as Venture Partner
Authored by Mark Hefflinger on November 6, 2008

Chevy Chase, Md. - Hugh Panero, the co-founder and former CEO of XM Satellite Radio , has joined venture capital firm New Enterprise Associates (NEA) as a venture partner, the firm announced on Thursday.

Panero will focus his efforts in the area of consumer technology.

"His wealth of expertise in building media businesses from concepts to consumer acceptance makes him an outstanding addition to our consumer technology team," said Peter Barris, NEA's managing general partner.

Panero co-founded DC-based XM in 1998 and served as its CEO until August 2007, shortly before the company merged with Sirius Satellite Radio. (NASD: SIRI)

At its height, XM had more than 9.3 million subscribers.

Panero started his career as a journalist, and prior to XM served as the president and CEO of Request Television, a pay-per-view network owned by TCI's Liberty Media and Twentieth Century Fox.

[Demian]

Another slam piece......

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/11/...th-ahead-siri-

Now He Tells Us: Sirius XM Sees Slower Growth Ahead (SIRI)
Dan Frommer | November 6, 2008

The growth glory days are over for Sirius XM: The company's new long-term growth forecast calls for single-digit year-over-year subscriber growth at least through 2013.

Specifically, Sirius (SIRI) expects to grow its subscriber base 10% this year, then 8% in 2009; 7% in 2010; 9% in 2011 and 2012; and 8% in 2013. That's average growth of 1.9 million net subscribers a year through 2013 -- a sharp slowdown from 2007 and earlier.

Why so slow? Sirius depends on the auto industry, which is in the toilet, for most of its growth. And competition is rising -- don't count out the wireless industry, for example.

Sirius XM expects positive free cash flow in 2010, rising to $1.4 billion in 2013. Shares are up 3 cents to $0.29 today.

[Demian]

http://www.digitalhome.ca/content/view/3065/281/

XM Canada loses $30.7 million in fiscal 2008
THURSDAY, 06 NOVEMBER 2008

XM Canada today reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended August 31, 2008. The company reported operating losses of $30.7 million for the year despite a whopping 86% increase in revenues to $39.5 million.

In the final quarter of the 2008 fiscal year, the company incurred operating losses of $4.1 million on revenues of $11.8 million.

The total number of XM subscribers on August 31st, 2008 was 497,400, up 58,500 from 439,900 at the end of the previous quarter. The number of self-paying customers was 310,100 up 29,700 from 280,400. "Self paying" subscriptions are ones where the consumer is paying the cost of the satellite radio subscription.

For the year, the total number of XM Canada subscribers rose 58% (from 315,200) while the number of self-paying subscribers rose 67% (from 185,400).

Average Revenue per Subscriber (ARPU) was $12.06 in the final quarter of the year, up 6% from $11.33 in the final quarter of 2007. The increase in ARPU was due to an increasing proportion of XM subscribers transitioning from the company’s previous basic monthly subscription price of $12.99 to the price of $14.99.

XM Canada has now been operating for eleven quarters in Canada with net subscriber growth averaging just over 15,000 per month since inception. In the past, John Bitove, the company Chairman and CEO has said that XM is "on track to reach one million subscribers by 2010." That goal seems to be very much in doubt now because in order to achieve the million subscriber mark, XM would need to add almost 21,000 new subscribers every month for the next two years. That's more than 33% higher than current monthly average.

The total number of XM subscribers and now stands at 497,400 with self-paying customers numbering 310,100. The following are XM subscriber counts since its inception: (the numbers in brackets are the reported number of self paying subscriptions.)

Aug 31, 2008 - 497,400 (310,100)
May 31, 2008 - 439,900 (280,400)
Feb 28, 2008 - 395,400 (251,400)
Nov 30, 2007 - 350,000 (214,100)
Aug 31, 2007 - 306,000 (not reported)
May 31, 2007 - 269,900 (not reported)
Feb 28, 2007 - 237,500 (136,400)

Previous quarters reporting methodology: ***

Nov 30, 2006 - 147,000 (not reported)
Aug 31, 2006 - 120,000 (91,200)
May 30, 2006 - 80,000 (64,000)
Feb 28, 2006 - 50,000 (44,000)Feb 28, 2006 - 50,000 (44,000)

*** XM Canada changed its methodology for counting subscribers in 2007 which makes year over year comparisons difficult. Under its new methodology, XM subscriber counts now include factory-activated automobile subscriptions.

Factory activated subscriptions are deals where new car buyers get a free subscription for a trial period. The trial period is typically 3 months to a year. Factory activated subscriptions are in contrast to "self paying" subscriptions where the consumers themselves pay the cost of the satellite radio subscription.

[Demian]

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/...0News/2001937/

XM Canada reports strong fourth quarter and fiscal 2008 results
Thu. November 06, 2008