J56D,
I already posted that article a few hours ago on this thread, but thanks for getting envolved....I need help on here...
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
J56D,
I already posted that article a few hours ago on this thread, but thanks for getting envolved....I need help on here...
This is so low and crooked of Weinkes.......it is so obvious. The guy has no credibility at all. GS are a bunch of crooks. They were screwing over their own clients for gosh sake. Just because SIRI has reached Weinkes ever declining price targets, doesn't mean that you should trust them. Their calls are criminal...
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/10/...25-cents-siri-
Goldman Whacks Sirius XM Growth Estimates, Drops Price Target To $0.25 (SIRI)
Dan Frommer | October 28, 2008 10:43 AM
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) has enough bad news to deal with: A souring consumer economy; the decline of the U.S. car industry, where Sirius gets many of its new subscribers; and growing competition. Some new concerns for Mel Karmazin and company: "The viability of the current business model" set against about $1 billion of debt maturities "and an uncertain amount of cash on hand," Goldman's Mark Wienkes notes today.
"Specifically, we believe the current business model will have an increasingly difficult path as the cost of churn [subscribers fleeing the service] impairs the ability to generate free cash requisite to satisfy debt maturities or ultimately accrue any meaningful value to shareholders," he says.
As a result, Wienkes is cutting his growth targets for Sirius XM. He now thinks they'll sign up 644,000 net new subscribers this quarter, down 11% from his previous estimate of 724,000; 1.6 million next year, down 20% from his previous estimate of 2.0 million; and 1.4 million in 2010, down 26% from his previous estimate of 1.9 million.
Wienkes rates SIRI "conviction sell" and thinks the stock should trade for 25 cents. It's down 10% today to 34 cents.
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...d=yahoobarrons
October 28, 2008, 9:25 am
Sirius XM: Is The Company’s Equity Worth Anything? Goldman Cuts Target To 25 Cents; Trims Rev Ests
Posted by Eric Savitz
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes this morning repeated his Sell rating on Sirius XM (SIRI), while cutting his price target to 25 cents from 50 cents and trimming estimates. He contends that 2008 subscriber forecasts will be cut or missed.
“Our lowered estimates and price target reflect further erosion of satellite radio industry demand,” he writes. He says subscriber acquisition costs, average revenue per user and churn are all moving in the wrong direction, and notes that revenue has been unable to cover operating and capital expenses, leaving the company with negative free cash flow and dependent on the capital markets for ongoing funding. Wienkes contends that the company’s inability or unwillingness to
have previously refinanced its capital structure “is now unlikely to preserve much, if any, equity value.”
Wienkes says that equity holders “are facing near-certain dilution via either higher interest charges or new share issuance,” as seen with the recently authorized 67 million share exchange for $30 million of the company’s $300 million convert - 3% of the debt set to mature next year. If the company were to refinance just its remaining $670 million convert with stock, it would imply 1.47 billion more shares, or about 50% equity dilution, he notes
For 2008, Goldman now sees revenue of $1.777 billion, down from $1.783 billion; for 2009, $2.63 billion, from $2.67 billion; for 2010, $2.874 billion, from $2.997 billion. He sees per-share losses of 35 cents a share this year, 18 cents next year and 14 cents in 2010.
Yesterday, SIRI jumped 11 cents to 38 cents; in pre-market trading, the stock is up another 4 cents, to 42 cents.
Last edited by Demian; 10-28-2008 at 12:43 PM.
I think SIRI could close green today..........even with the GS downgrade.
there is no reason for weinke to cover a stock as low as siri. He clearly is manipulating for the good of converts for GS.
Why else would they bother with a stock that they think is that crappy? its way way obvious, that call is like the last straw that hopefully sends him to jail
ps. and interestingly timed right before open the day after a huge rally, just before its about to hit a break out.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081028/sirius_mover.html?.v=1
AP
Analyst reduces financial forecasts for Sirius
Tuesday October 28, 1:18 pm ET
Analyst lowers Sirius' subscriber, cash flow estimates and price target
PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Shares of Sirius XM Radio Inc. fell on Tuesday after an analyst reduced his subscriber and cash flow forecasts for the satellite radio provider and maintained a "Sell" recommendation on the stock.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes also cut his six-month price target in half to 25 cents. In afternoon trading, Sirius fell 5 cents, or 13 percent, to 33 cents. The stock has traded between 22 cents and $3.94 over the past year, and has lost 87 percent of its value since January.
Wienkes believes the company will reduce or miss its subscriber projections as demand erodes.
He also noted that Sirius' revenue isn't enough to cover operating and capital expenses, leading to negative free cash flow while the company continues to be dependent upon outside financing in a tight credit market.
The analyst said shareholders are facing dilution of their holdings due to higher interest charges or issuance of new shares. Sirius recently gave debt holders 67 million shares to retire $30 million of $300 million in convertible debt -- and it could do it again.
Sirius faces $1.1 billion in debt coming due next year. The company is seeking to save $425 million in 2009 from its July merger with XM and trim its debt burden to reach profitability.
SIRI has been showing some support at around the .32 level, but the Dow is up 400 points!
I don't trust the Weinkes impact's ability to last too long this time. SIRI has already hit his .25 target and came up from it. I think Weinkes is out of bullets now. What's next - a .125 price target? It's getting just silly at this point....
Reply With Quote