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Thread: Is SIRI trying to destroy the shareholders or not?

  1. #31
    SiriusXMInvestor is offline
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    Like I said last night, Hartleib let the cat out of the bag. If it pans out the way Hartleib has stated, then obviously we now would know what Mel was planning all along. The question now becomes, is it/was it criminal? I think Hartleib has perhaps hampered Mel's and Black's takeover, screw the shareholders plan. He may have exposed a despicable plan to kill dedicated shareholders. I for one have 4 subs, my brother 2 and nephew 2. We would immediately cancel our subs.

  2. #32
    Keysmark is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    Hartlieb thinks that Mel and Co. will offer the buyout between $1.50 and $2.
    I have a large number of shares, more than most who have indicated the number of shares that they have. My most recent purchase @ 42 cents last week almost doubled my share amount and brought my average price down to about $1.40 per share.

    I would be ecstatic with a $1.50 buyout as I now consider my entire investment a complete loss with no hope of recovery.

    It seems clear to me, and Hartlieb admitted as much, that his only motive is to recover HIS money. Supporting his efforts does nothing to get back MY money or YOUR money, and only hurts our chances.

    Assuming he is correct about this conspiracy, which I do NOT believe, why would I/WE want to kill possibly the only chance we have of recovering some money thru a buyout. Even if you are in at a higher price, $1,50 is still a lot better than 36 cents.

    Keysmark

  3. #33
    Newman is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keysmark
    Assuming he is correct about this conspiracy, which I do NOT believe, why would I/WE want to kill possibly the only chance we have of recovering some money thru a buyout. Even if you are in at a higher price, $1,50 is still a lot better than 36 cents.
    If you are thinking that way, why not sell now? 36 cents is a lot better than 0 cents if they declare BK, and if they do the reverse split simply for NASDAQ listing requirements, your shares would then be cut, and your losses would mount much faster. So why not get out now? Is it that you believe the company is worth more than 36 cents?

    A large number of people are in this stock because we believe the company is worth more than what we paid for it. As a matter of principal and opinion, I do not and will not disclose the number of shares I own or what my average price is, but I honestly think that the company is worth more than what I put into the stock. I understand there are obsticals, but I truely believe that the company is worth more than what I paid per share. I would not be happy with a $2 buyout, or a $5 buyout, or a $10 buyout. I think the combined company is worth more than that. We got hit at a very bad time where WANDERFUL companies with spotless balance sheets are getting hit hard. It is only natural that Sirius with it's large amount of debt would tank.

    But you know what? Economies recover. People will eventully come up with more free cash flow in order to buy satellite radios and the service. Car sales will eventually pick back up and when they do, they will probably take off like a rocket. New technology will allow for more compression of music while maintaining sound quality, and new channels will be added that appeal to a larger audience, drawing more subscribers. New technologies will allow more advanced radios with more advanced features that will draw retail customers. Interopperable radios will entice even more. New technologies will allow for commercial overlay, making Sirius XM both a free commercial-based radio AND a subscription service, all at the same time. Sirius XM already has satellites that are over Mexico and South America for a significant amount of time. Government regulations in those areas may allow for Sirius XM to expand their programing to those areas, increasing subscriber numbers for a minimal cost.

    If Sirius XM can outlast the recession/stagflation, they will THRIVE in the upturned market, and all of the long term investors will be dancing in the streets. All of the naysayers and conspiray theorists will look like fools, and those that sold their positions at 36 cents per share will be contemplating suicide.

    Or, Mel could take the company private, and I will look like an idiot. Who knows?

    I base my investment decisions on evidence. Increasing revenues, increasing subscriber numbers, decreasing costs, potential merger synergies. Evidence.

    I would like to see Michael Hartlieb's evidence. Many of his "facts" have been disputed here and on other boards, and when they are, he seems to disappear and never address that, until he starts using the same "facts" elsewhere. I have yet to see any true facts that prove his theories. Yes, they are plausible, and his theories fit very well with the story, but there are no tangible facts. Give me an email from Mel to Leon saying "We are going to drop this stock like a rock." Buy a radio, tear it apart, and have an electrical engineer go over it and say "Look, I can get Sirius and XM on this radio with only a minor tweak." Give me something that I can put my hands on. Don't give me a resume of a designer who lists his job description as "putting ACC on Sirius 3rd generation chipset" or coincidences that may or may not be associated with the situation.

    GIVE ME FACTS.

  4. #34
    Keysmark is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    If you are thinking that way, why not sell now? 36 cents is a lot better than 0 cents if they declare BK, and if they do the reverse split simply for NASDAQ listing requirements, your shares would then be cut, and your losses would mount much faster. So why not get out now? Is it that you believe the company is worth more than 36 cents? .
    The answer to your question is yes. However, at this point, I would be happy to be close to even and out.

    Keysmark
    Last edited by Keysmark; 10-22-2008 at 11:01 AM.

  5. #35
    homer985 is offline
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    Newman, there continues to be 2 separate issues that I have with this thread -- the first being regarding the screwing of the Infinity shareholders... that claim is going to be disingenuous at best. If Hartlieb is basing his complaint on that -- then he's going to have a very difficult time proving this.

    Over a 20 year period, from 1972 to 1992, Infinity was a private company for 18 of those years -- with a short public period between 1986 and 1988. The IPO for the most part was seen as a failure, due to the economic slowdown in 1986 and market crash of 1987 -- that led the senior management to take the company back private. It later did a new successful IPO in 1992, where it remained public until it merged with the CBS -- and then CBS with Viacom.

    Those that participated in the IPO in 1992 and held through the merger with Viacom made out like bandits. There is no argument there that Hartlieb can make to the contrary. If he's going to go back to 1988... good luck with that. Radio was not seen as a much sought after investment back then -- then with the market crash? What Karmazin did back then was no where near seen as "screwing the shareholders" -- that assertion alone is laughable at the notion.


    My second issue is the one that Hartlieb and the others have no answer for -- I propose again, where is this money for an LBO going to come from? Banks can't get money to support themselves right now -- but Karmazin and Black are going to come up with between $5 billion (at current pps) to $8-10 billion (at buyout pps of $1.5-$2.00)? I ask again, where is this money going to come from? $8-10 billion for a company that has never earned a profit in an economy that there is no money to support crumbling banks? Seriously... Hartlieb couldn't have asked for a weaker argument than this one.

    Even if the economy rebounds and the debt market comes back -- it's going to be awhile before banks are going to be willing to just throw $8-10 billion at LBO's for non-profitable companies... this isn't the late 1990's. This is a ridiculous argument (and I'm not directing the comments at you -- just in general).


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    Last edited by homer985; 10-22-2008 at 01:17 PM.

  6. #36
    Jay Wilson is offline
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    Crazyiness

    If you think there is an evil plot, and Mel is tanking the company on purpose, answer this question. What different steps could Mel have taken from July to now that would have been more positive for the company? Lay it out here.

    There is a window for the shorts to make their move. It's from the merger date to the point where the operating results and synergies start showing up. You can scare people to sell by bashing the stock. People see the stock going down, and they become convinced the company is going down. From July to November 6, there's no visibility. We're flying blind and everyone is screaming.

    Everyone just needs to chill until the earnings are reported and there is some visibility. The company won't go bankrupt in October. It won't go bankrupt in November. It won't go bankrupt in December. It won't go bankrupt in January. February? I really doubt it. The point is, people are scared and behaving like the company is going to announce a bankruptcy tomorrow. It's not going to happen.

  7. #37
    PMO is offline
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    Newman, "If Sirius XM can outlast the recession/stagflation, they will THRIVE in the upturned market, and all of the long term investors will be dancing in the streets." Do the new-minus-the-old-and-divide to see the downward progression. Do you really think the SP's current pace of decline will stop? If it does not then it cannot outlast squat.

  8. #38
    PMO is offline
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    JW, on the BK prospect, no one is clairvoyant but my guess is we will have A LOT more clarity after the shareholder conference when Mel gets confronted on the theories about the SP.

  9. #39
    Newman is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by PMO
    Do the new-minus-the-old-and-divide to see the downward progression. Do you really think the SP's current pace of decline will stop? If it does not then it cannot outlast squat.
    PMO: Do you think a company that holdsover 3 billion in actual assets and another estimated 7 billion in intangible assets (the spectrum), along with revenue over 1 billion and borderline on cashflow positive will be allowed to go BK? I honestly doubt it. Bought out IS a possibility, but never BK. The slide of the stock price has been horid, I know, but then again the entire market is down horribly. If we were still in a booming economy and Sirius was down, it would be a different story, but we are not, and every stock around has gone to hell.

    The New-Minus-The-Old-and-Divide is definately worrysome, but I do not see any of it actually happening, unless they sell more shares to pay off debt like they did a couple days ago. I think the Q3 conference call (which should be in the next 2 -3 weeks) will shed a lot of light on the story.

  10. #40
    imromo24 is offline
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    im with you

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