Volume in the pre-market was crazy low - lower than I ever remember. Volume looks pretty low in this morning's regular trading too. SIRI seems like it would be easy to manipulate with volume that low......
DOW down 200 - SIRI down about a penny...
If Mel now sees revenue just from car sales up 300 - 400 million for 2009, combined with synergies of 425 million, doesn't that mean SIRI turns a profit for '09? Increased revenue from the "best of" packages along with the new portable and a la cart radios should boost retail sales too. If what Mel says is true about the 19.5 million subs already reached, then there should be no problem in surpassing 20 million subs this year. Using his worst case of 12 million cars sold, that = a minimum of 3 million new subs, just from new car sales. If you figure in the juiced retail space from the new offerings, it looks like they could approach 25 million subs by the end of '09....
Wouldn't SIRI turn a profit in '09 then?
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/081015/ny39138.html?.v=1
Press Release Source: SIRIUS XM Radio
SIRIUS' Maxim Radio Launches 'Game On,' Exclusive Weekly Show Devoted to the Art of Meeting and Attracting Women
Wednesday October 15, 10:00 am ET
Live, call-in show on the art of approaching, getting, and keeping the girl
Tips and advice from the experts, dispensed with wit and intelligence
NEW YORK, Oct. 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SIRIUS XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI - News) today announced that it will launch Game On, an exclusive weekly live call-in show devoted to teaching listeners across the country how to improve their "game," and master the social skills to attract and interact with the opposite sex.
The Dow in now down 300 and SIRI is trading down less than a half a cent. This is positive! Volume is pretty low at about 8 million shares...
SIRI actually is trading just about flat now.....
The market is now rolling out of bed - DOW down 363 - SIRI down about a penny....
Here are the slides from the Merrill Lynch presentation.....in case you haven't seen them yet.
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/...cik%253d908937
Last edited by Demian; 10-15-2008 at 11:19 AM.
Market tanking - DOW now down 500......SIRI down about 4 cents at .4431.
This is depressing......will this crap ever stop?
Last edited by Demian; 10-15-2008 at 01:49 PM.
The Motley Fool responded to my comments in their most recent SIRI article that just came out...Originally Posted by Demian
http://www.fool.com/investing/high-g...wCommentAnchor
3 Questions About Sirius XM Radio
By Rick Aristotle Munarriz October 15, 2008 Comment (1) Recommend (0)
Covering satellite radio giant Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) is always a treat, as long as you remember to don the Teflon windbreaker.
Now that we have comment boxes below our stories, you're getting a sample of what my email inbox typically looks like. I love it. I don't mind taking my lumps, when they're well earned. I relish the feedback. I got plenty of comments when I wrote Monday about "5 Reasons Why Sirius XM Is at $0.43." (Check out the link to see the full slate of responses.)
I figured I would address some of the more common queries and venom in today's column.
The XM recommendation
DemianBohemian writes: "Why were you guys pumping XM as a stand alone company up in the double digits all those years to your paid subscribers then?"
This often comes up, so let's dive right in. I recommended XM Satellite Radio to Motley Fool Rule Breakers subscribers three years ago at $30.94. Obviously I felt strongly about the industry's promise and XM's prospects. Obviously I was wrong.
With losses mounting despite the subscriber gains, the newsletter recommended that subscribers sell the stock 13 months later at $14.85. It was a brutal loss, but the bearish turn served readers well. With XM shares being exchanged for 4.6 shares of Sirius this summer, it now values XM at $2.21 a share, given last night's close of $0.48 a share for the merged company. In other words, the stock has taken an 85% plunge since the sell recommendation. We spared our subscribers, and it's why premium newsletters are as important for the timing of their sells as they are for their buy recommendations. It was a horrendous pick, but cutting our losses saved it from being a disastrous one....
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Here is my comment I posted to the new article...
On October 15, 2008, at 2:27 PM,
DemianBohemian wrote:
How can you claim that you "served readers well" by recommending your subscribers buy XM at over $30 and then telling them to sell after over a 50% loss a few months later. Sure it went lower, but that was a horrible pick during a bull market. XM was way overvalued at $30. What were you thinking? If you liked XM as a stand alone company at over $30 when it was in heated competition with Sirius. How about both Sirius and XM at an over 90% discount?
They are just about to be profitable with huge synergy savings from the merger as well as ramping penetration in the new car market - which softens any slow down in car sales. The new "best of" packages will drive tons of revenue from existing as well as new subscribers. The new XM portable and "a la carte" radios will drive retail sales going into the holiday shopping season.
The debt issue has been overblown. They will be able to pay off the Feb. '09 debt with cash on hand and existing credit facilities if they needed to. I wouldn't want to be short when the news of financing crosses the wires. And it could happen any time now.
The Starplayr iPhone/ iPod Touch app should be out any day now. This will drive many new subscribers as they don't need to buy a radio. Millions of potential new subs could come from that pool from all over the world.
Putting out article after article bashing SIRI, without mentioning any of these positives along with all your bearish talk, does a disservice to your readers and subscribers. Don't you think that it's a more attractive price down here at .43 for both companies than when you were recommending it at over $30 just for XM?
Last edited by Demian; 10-15-2008 at 02:46 PM.
I just talked with Shirley from IR. It seems Mels comments about 19.5 million subscribers yesterday may have been taken out of context. She told me that the guidance given in September at the Merrill CC is still the most up to date info. That means it's 19.5 million by EOY. She did say there would be an update on that guidance at the Q3 CC in early November. So if Mel WAS hinting that his guidance is changing, we'll have to wait to find out for sure. I'm not sure what the folks at IR are really allowed to say... or what they really know for that matter.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/co....aspx?ID=88448
.....Turning first to the outspoken Karmazin, he noted yesterday at a media industry conference that "We'll add hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue even if the auto industry sells only 12 million cars, and that's less than people are expecting even in today's climate." He also expressed confidence that his newly merged company will be able to refinance its $1 billion in debt due next year, despite unprecedented strain in global credit markets. "It's very challenging," he admitted, "but we've been talking to our debt holders and I'm confident we'll be able to work something out."........
New XMP3 section on xmradio.com......
http://www.xmradio.com/xmp3/index.html
It's also available for sale on XM's website...
http://shopoffers.xmradio.com/detail...etail&dpid=840
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