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Thread: Sirius/XM debt document...confidential?

  1. #11
    Demian is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    Holy crap, what more do you people want. Mel has already said all that, and even gives clues that GS would like nothing better then to reconvert the old ones and that is the last thing Mel would want to do. How many times does it need to be said for god sake. I am sick and tired of people saying Mel needs to say it, when he already has. Then you people wonder why he comes out with a comment like "unsophisticated investors. What do you need 1 + 1 = 2.
    John,

    I also found this comment from Mel in the Q2 CC transcript...

    Mel Karmazin

    "...the only group that should not be pleased so far are our shareholders. We know we have a great deal of work to do to have shareholders feel the same way as our other stakeholders feel and we take that responsibility very seriously."

    Does this sound like someone who is planning bankruptcy?

  2. #12
    john is offline
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    Demian, I seen that also (your link, thanks though). That is what I am talking about, when people that say Mel needs to say how he plans on taking care of the Feb. converts. It is like they dont read or listen. I would have no problem with that kind of investor (dont read or listen) but then just shut up about the stock or CEO. I cant stand people that want to bitch and moan about a stock they have no clue about. I have said many times the debt they are dealing with is not that big of a deal, it is more of a matter of the terms and how bad they are, then anything else. I have said Mel has talked about this many times already. Like I said if people dont want to do the research on a stock they buy thats is fine, but then dont come here and other places and bitch about something they dont have a clue about. That just spreads the rumors and bad feelings. It just pisses me off when I here from people "Why has Mel not said anything about this". I mean what, does he have to come out every day and say it, people cant do their own research and look the shit up. I also have no problem with the people that just ask for the information, it is the ones that come here and bitch about Mel saying nothing and ask why has he not done so.

  3. #13
    PMO is offline
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    Thx homer985. I know the plan, can speculate on the silence, and understand the current situtation. Maybe Mel will, without opening mouth and inserting foot, provide some useful, beneficial, MUCH NEEDED info at the Dow conference in a couple days. Although it's a remote possibility, I especially want some news or information directly from Mel that will build confidence among existing longs and make the short interest ratio decline faster.

  4. #14
    Demian is offline
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    PMO,

    I am hoping he will say what a smashing success the "best of" packages have been and due to their success, there is no problem in paying the Feb. debt off in cash...

    Would the stock take off then?

  5. #15
    homer985 is offline
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    Here is a transcript of "the plan" as laid out at the ML conference awhile back...

    We currently have a Sirius convert of $300 million, that is due February of 2009. We have already had conversations with banks about securing the cash, okay, in order to take out that convert. You shouldn’t be surprised that the holders of the convert have been very anxious to talk to us about, “gee, we’d like to exchange that for another piece of convert”. That is not the interest that the company has. The company has, is that we will raise the debt – the combined with our approximately $450 million of cash that was on our balance sheet, the last time we report it, which was the end of June. So there was $450 million of cash, we are looking to raise bank debt – probably senior secured, because we have basket in which we can do that. Probably a term that will be a couple – three years – short term; and that will take out that issue. When will we do it? We will do it, this time more opportunistically than we did, last time. When would I like to do it? I’d like to do it, sooner rather than later. Because I’d like to get this question mark out of everybody’s mind, “What are you going to do about that Feburary 2009 convert. The market, based on everything I’m told is assuming we may have to raise equity to deal with that. So let me resolve that as fast as I can – and show that I don’t need to do that. And I think that that would look positive.
    It is my opinion that Sirius has more options than just banks and brokerages for borrowing the money. They have the ability to borrow from private investors as well... NOTE: In early 2007, XM did the Sale Leaseback on the Transponders on XM-4 with private investors, which raised $288 million; also in early 2003, XM place $300 million worth of 10% Convertible notes with private investors... those notes did not trade and in fact, $33 million of them are still outstanding -- all held by Honda. The point here is that if they cannot place traditional bonds on the debt market, they can get bank loans -- or a private placement with private investors.

    I also note that there still has been no indication from Sirius XM of how much the $1.1 billion in tender offers were subscribed to. I see that there are still some 9.75% XM Notes trading... so obviously not all of these $600 million took the tender offer. If 90% of the holders took the tender offers... then that means that there is $110 million left over from that refinancing at the time of the merger closing.

    So when you combine whatever was left over -- with the increased cashflow from those taking the "best of" packages; and the typical Q4 positive cashflow... then combine all of this with a small bank term loan or a small private placement -- and I believe that they'll be able to buyback the Feb09 converts.

    Again, it is the Dec09 converts that I have no thoughts about yet - that concern me the most.



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  6. #16
    Demian is offline
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    Homer,

    Thanks for posting that. Where did you get the transcript? Is there a link to it online?

  7. #17
    homer985 is offline
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    I did not see anything new in the document...

    As for the transcript, I transcribed it from a recording of the ML conference from early/mid September. I discussed it in this thread originally: http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/showthread.php?t=745

    You can hear the "full plan" that Karmazin gave on the debt here:
    http://www.4shared.com/file/62672080...?cau2=403tNull

    You'll note that the transcript is the first part of this recording -- but the whole thing is not transcribed. The recording runs about 5 minutes.



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  8. #18
    Demian is offline
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    Homer,

    Thanks for the link to the audio file and for transcribing, posting Mel's plan.
    I hope that the timing is right when Mel addresses this issue again...

  9. #19
    imromo24 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    ...
    Again, it is the Dec09 converts that I have no thoughts about yet - that concern me the most.



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    Didn't Mel say the Dec. debt wasn't an issue because he was just going to extend it? ie not pay it off, not refinance, just get an extension?

  10. #20
    Demian is offline
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    Comments from the Q2 conference call...

    Mel Karmazin

    So now let me address some of the questions that we have received. First, many of you have asked about our 2009 maturities and our current liquidity position, so let me have David address that one.

    David J. Frear

    So Sirius XM ended the quarter, the June quarter with pro forma cash and cash equivalents of approximately $442 million. In 2009, there are three maturities to focus on. At the parent level, there are the $300 million in 441 converts that are due in February. If the stock doesn’t clear the 441 conversion price before then, we’ll look to refinance them through a combination of use of our existing cash, bank or high yield debt, and if it makes sense, perhaps additional converts as well, or replacement converts as well.

    At the XM subsidiary level, there’s $350 million of bank debt that is due in May. The banks have been very supportive, consistently very supportive of the efforts to merge the companies and in fact the bank line was actually increased by $100 million in late June. The credit profile of the company for the banks will improve dramatically over the course of the next year, making this loan even more attractive than it is today. I have every reason to believe the banks will extend the maturity at market rates next spring.

    And then lastly, the XM sub also has $400 million of converts due in December of 2009. As you know, we’ve provided guidance of pro forma EBITDA exceeding $300 million and growing next year. We will be effectively at the precipice of delivering that at the time that we look to refinance those notes. And I like the odds of entering the fall of next year with a radically improved credit that is beginning to show normalized leverage ratios and taking that issuer to the debt markets to refinance the December ’09 converts.

    And then lastly, both companies have consistently made full funding statements in their public filings and those statements remain true today.

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