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Thread: Is the debt refi really the answer?

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  1. #1
    Sirius_Stern_Fan is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2008 Posts: 23

    Question Is the debt refi really the answer?

    Posted this in the O&A article but I don't think it went through...


    Seriously,

    Will someone please explain to me how we can all be clinging onto the hope of our stock going through the roof (read: back to where most of us bought in at) with debt refinancing? I mean, all we have been hearing about is the debt.

    First it was a major hurdle, but now the general consensus seems to be that Feb. and May debt is not an issue and that Dec. ‘09 is the real obstacle.

    I just don’t see how the refinancing will do much more then keep the stock price a little higher then where it is now until a few years from now when the company starts generating a positive cash flow.

    It seems as though each time we hold hope for a “pop” from some good news, we don’t see it and then rationalize it to the next obstacle in the companies way. There is a daily masochistic routine of posting on these boards where we go through this same talk of debt and refi.

    When are we all going to realize that this stock is only going up when the company is operating in the black?

  2. #2
    frigginregan is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2008 Posts: 83
    i HALF agree with you. IF DEBT was not an issue...they would have popped HUGE after the merger like Cramer and many predicted.

    But we had debt. And then Mel ADDED to that debt with the UGLY refinance deal that knocked us down to $1.50 immediately after the merger and allowed the stock to be bashed down to where it is now.

    Secondly, IF there was no credit crisis...and Sirius got a refinance deal now...then YES...it would have a DEFINITE positive effect on the stock.

    BUT...in keeping with Sirius' ROTTEN LUCK AND AWFUL timing....the refinance will come during the WORST ECONOMIC CRISIS since the GREAT DEPRESSION. That is IF THEY CAN EVEN GET IT REFINANCED!!!!

    Just like our hopes were dashed for a pop after the merger....I am starting to FEAR we are in for the same anticlimactic DROP after any refinance deal.

    Sirius NEEDS credit....and it's the WORST environment for that.

    GM is lower than it was before 1929. And the auto slow down DIRECTLY effects Sirius.

    It's like they are DOUBLY screwed.

  3. #3
    winagain35 is offline
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    Joined: Jun 2008 Location: Denver, CO Posts: 190
    The debt is the hurdle that stands in the way of Sirius becoming profitable. So yes, it's about the debt. But as friggin says, the auto slump is also a major factor. These are dark, dark days fellas. Hunker down and hope.

  4. #4
    Demian is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,320
    Even if there were zero new cars sold in the next 12 months, SIRI would still have retail sales, the synergies, and the "best of" packages contributing to the bottom line. There will be less cars sold, but the penetration rate in the new car market is increasing. Also, you always have trial subscriptions that expire and are activated. If the iPhone/iPod touch app comes out, that will drive new subscriptions also. I think holiday retail sales may be surprising this year due to the new portable and the alacarte radio with the lower priced plan options. The new "best of" packages should boost retail sales also, as it gives consumers more choices. They don't have to pick between Howard Stern or Oprah - they can get both........

    With the share price where it is, you would think ZERO car sales has been priced in.............

  5. Ad Fairy Senior Member

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