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Thread: SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 10/06/08

  1. #41
    imromo24 is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: Steeler Town, MI Posts: 2,524

    Quiet is ok.

    Mel said that besides the Feb debt the other debt will be extended. Just want to remind everyone that he said that. If the Feb debt is handled we should be good.

    Also, considering the stock is so undervalued, it could jump up on anything.

    If mel can pay off the feb debt out of his own pocket, then I don't see that being hard to finance from a big institution.

    ps. remember also that when the UGLY deal was struck supposedly he was unable to use the XM numbers (because the merger rules kept him from seeing XM's books)

    No use in announcing anything right now with the overall market tanking.

    Yes?

  2. #42
    Demian is offline
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    All Mel would have to say is that they have enough cash on hand to pay the Feb. debt. due to extra revenue from "best of" subscriptions.....end of story.

  3. #43
    frigginsirius is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 29
    If Mel can pay off the Feb debt as easy as you say....WHY hasn't he yet? Just because the market is bad? How much worse can it get? And whay benefit is it to wait?

    If Mel had announced today during the rally...you think Sirius would still be trading in the 30 cent range? I don't think so.

    The SOONER Mel announces a deal the BETTER. The market is going to do what it's going to do. But if the deal gets done...then people with money on the sidelines will notice....and when the money starts flowing back into the market again...some will flow Sirius' way.

    Mel said he WANTED to announce SOONER than later. So thats what makes me believe he hasn't secured a deal just yet. Otherwise, he WOULD have announced it already with the launch of the BEST OF. It would have been a DOUBLE whammy of positive news.

    It doesn't serve Sirius to WAIT. If they have refinancing...THEY WOULD ANNOUNCE IT.

    Plus...whoever they struck a deal with would have leaked info to that effect. We would have heard SOME rumor. ANYTHING. But we have heard NOTHING.

  4. #44
    winagain35 is offline
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    Joined: Jun 2008 Location: Denver, CO Posts: 190
    Friggin,
    Remember, Mel can't pay the Feb convert early. It's not callable. So no matter what he decides to do, it won't be done until February. It's in the company's best interest, in my opinion, to consider ALL options and not make a hasty decision right now. If the credit market improves in the coming months, they can borrow money... if it doesn't, they might end up paying cash for a big chunk of it(assuming Q4 is FCF). If economy is still bleak, they might offer a new convert with a higher interest rate and lower conversion price, or they might issue more equity. Bottom line is there are several options and it seems prudent to wait until the dust settles before deciding which move is best.

  5. #45
    Demian is offline
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    Again, Mel would not have to secure financing or pay it off early. All he would have to say is that due to increasing revenue that they have enough cash set aside to pay it off...

    Then he could focus on the debt out in the future of '09 in a much better position...

  6. #46
    winagain35 is offline
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    D,
    Don't you think it's too early to KNOW if we'll have enough cash on hand? I'm thinking that we will, but we don't know how bad Q3 was yet and how much of the $440mil we burned through, and it's still very early in Q4. We don't know how bad the auto market will be over the coming months and though we're optimistic about best of, it's too soon to tell if it will generate the kind of cash we're hoping for. It may be premature for Mel to declare anything for certain.

  7. #47
    Newman is offline
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    The big thing to remember is that cash is all a numbers game.

    Need cash to pay for a satellite or towards the convert? Just use the Loral Credit line to pay for the satellite and save the cash for the convert.

    Need to pay GM some money? Just use the GM credit line and save the cash for the convert.

    They WILL have enough cash on hand to pay off the convert if they need it, regardless of how bad everything else is. They have enough open credit lines to assure that.

    My question to someone that knows more than I do (Homer preferably): Can Sirius XM buy their own debt issues on the open market? Back when I was looking at the bonds, it looked like they were selling UNDER the issue price. Can Sirius XM buy them on the open market instead of calling them? Seems to me that could be one hell of a way to save a bit of money if they are able to.

  8. #48
    Demian is offline
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    Newman,

    Does Goldman have those bonds for sale on the market? They might not want to sell them, because they want them reconverted......

  9. #49
    Demian is offline
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    Wow, the selling in this market is just relentless. The Dow in now down 500 after dipping below 8000 twice already. Where is the friday rebound I was looking for? That bounce this morning was another head fake?

    Another hour to see how this unfolds.......

    Still have some dry powder. SIRI pretty stable considering how down the market has been - banging it's head on the wall at .41 after bouncing off of .36 and then .375........

    oops, just broke the wall now -.43.......

  10. #50
    Demian is offline
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    Those bastards did it again. The last tick at the close below the bid and the ask went through at .43.......how do they do that day after day?

    Market tried to close green, but couldn't quite make it going into the close - still way off the lows....

    SIRI closed up 7.5% at .43........trading between .44 - .449 in AH now...
    Last edited by Demian; 10-10-2008 at 04:09 PM.

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