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Thread: Bankrupt

  1. #1
    bklynSal is offline
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    Bankrupt

    Guys,

    I have a friend whose brother works at Sirius and he told me that there is rumbling about the company going bankrupt. I know this is hear say and is no different than someone saying the company is doing great, but please think about the real possibility that it will go under, think about that before you average down again.

    When i first got into Sirius I made all the investing mistakes all new investors make and soon enough I was in too deep. I don't care if it takes me 5 years to make my money back as long as they don't go BK, I would tell myself over and over.

    well it looks like that sad day may happen. I am sorry to put fear into other investors but I am just venting and trying to prepare myself now rather than later.

  2. #2
    Whynot is offline
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    Not going bankrupt

    Gents,

    I have a little insight into this company as well, probably more than our fellow forum writer's brother. I can assure you, there has been rumbling about this company going bankrupt for more than 2 years.......they will not.

    The debt this company needs to re-finance is small potatoes in comparison to many other companies and is still attractive to many lenders, potential acquiring/partnering business and there are plans in action to resolve this issue.

    The rumblings I heard were MUCH stronger before the merger and though they still exist (and always will until financing is achieved), we will always hear that speculation.

    I could be wrong, but I truly doubt it.

    Happy thoughts for now all,
    Whynot

  3. #3
    bklynSal is offline
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    lets hope so

    Whynot,

    I hope that you are right and I am wrong, it is a scary time out there but I can't help but think Sirius is at .50 for a reason other than the whole market being down, and it being manipulated by GS or Crammer. I am past that already.

    So I hope you are right and come 2010 we are still around and higher than we are now.

    BTW,

    What is your insight to the company? I know my friends brother is thin I hope yours is better.
    Last edited by bklynSal; 10-07-2008 at 10:19 PM.

  4. #4
    Whynot is offline
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    Bankruptcy Discussion

    Sal,

    I think the price is stuck there for a number of reasons, but mainly economically driven due to the current market. But let's face it....this company has a great line of content, products, services, name recognition and potential......but it has NEVER achieved profitability, which is what drives the stock price.

    Granted 50 cents isn't a great number by any measures, but considering that the two separate companies were CERTAIN to go bankrupt without merging, they have to suck it up until all of those merger costs are absorbed (as we all know), to show an eventual profit. Both of the stocks were outrageously over-priced in the last few years, like most stocks in the recent bubble, and they are now getting hammered accordingly. On a day when some major players in the market got some serious haircuts (i.e. MER down more than 25%), we only dropped 4% and then back up 4% after hours, so we didn't really feel any of the kind of sting we could have, or even should have.

    My thought is that since Sirius is still speculative until it receives financing and proves profitable (a lottery ticket to some), that folks who have or had money to throw into speculative bargains, are now hiding their dough under the mattress and standing still.......everyone's scared, including myself.

    My insight comes from knowing some quality folks in the industry that are very close to XM and I've been hearing their pain, frustration, joy, pain again and most recently their uncertainty. The only certainty that I have gathered through most of my conversations, is that the idea of bankruptcy has lessened greatly since the merger.....but there is not much information about the terms of the upcoming financing or where it's coming from. Again, anything could still happen.

    Getting passed the merger was the major hurdle around bankruptcy, the new hurdle is where to go from here and how to do it quickly enough to appease Wall Street and potential instituational lenders.

    That's all I've got, for what it's worth.

    And I do own Sirius shares......still accumulating until I hear or see a good reason not to.

    Thanks,
    Whynot

  5. #5
    karma zen is offline
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    Is BK an option for Mel

    One thing I don't think I've heard anyone touch on is how Mel can afford (I realize he's a wealthy man) to lose 8.5 million shares directly owned and purchased in the market if they file BK? I would think that he would do anything including desperate measures to avoid a BK. Am I missing something here?

  6. #6
    bklynSal is offline
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    only time will tell

    whynot,

    thanks for the reply, although I am really loosing faith right now I am far from a basher and would love nothing better than a turn around someday.

    thanks again,

    Sal

  7. #7
    Whynot is offline
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    Bankruptcy

    Karma Zen- Agreed and that's another reason that I am so firmly behind the fact that Sirius will not go toes up, ever. That's a lot of cash for Mel to lose (even for a man of Mel's means) and I'm sure the rest of his investments, properties, etc....have not exactly increased in value this year as well. In addition, Mel is a man of pride and Sirius is his baby.....he will find a way to keep that deserved pride and his well earned cash.

    Sal- Glad I could help a little and I'm battered and worried too......but there's nothing much more we can do other than wait and keep the faith!!

    Have a good evening all,
    Whynot

  8. #8
    Newman is offline
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    WhyNot, Karma Zen:

    I have been saying this for a while. Mel knows the finances of both companies, and he knows the risks. I really doubt he would have purchased all of those shares AFTER THE MERGER if there was the possibility of bankruptcy.

    I really dont think this is an option.

  9. #9
    LittleTrader is offline
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    Well if you were to ask the CEO's of Lehman and AIG, they also did not think they were going bankrupt and we know how that ended.....

    The biggest problem i have with the company right now, and its been talked about before, is Mel's silence.

    If they're not advertising the merger to pinch all the pennies they can, then TELL US.

    If you are in talks with a few different lenders, TELL US.

    Also, a lot of people have been thinking this company will get scooped up by someone bigger,

    I'd have to say, who the hell is going to buy a company right now that's not turning a profit? no one.

    I am not a basher, i am a long. But come on mel, throw us a frickin bone here.

  10. #10
    siriuscanadian is offline
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    thats funny

    If all someone has to go by is the brother of a friend, they certainly aren't working with a full deck. Interesting as well that hanx gets the boot and then another newbie pops up with a new thread focused on bankruptcy.
    Going by how well sirius held up last week while every major index in the world tanked for eight days in a row I would say there would be many thousands of US companies going bankrupt before this one did. Especially considering the amount of revenue they are now pulling in and the growth that will be happening in the coming years.

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