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Thread: Is the DEBT Refinancing the ONLY REASON???

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  1. #1
    frigginregan is offline
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    Is the DEBT Refinancing the ONLY REASON???

    We've merged. We've got nearly 20 MILLION subscribers now. More than any other media company except for Comcast. Mel is projecting 425 MILLION in synergies next year, with 2.7 BILLION in projected revenue and 2.4 Billion in operating expenses...creating positive EBITDA for the first time of around 300 MILLION. Sirius is still one of the FASTEST growing media companies in the US.

    And yet....we hit 46 cents today. 4 cents lower than Goldman's LATEST downgrade.

    My question is.....is the DEBT the ONLY REASON why we are trading this low? With all the positives above, I can't think of ANY other reason why we are below a buck. It just doesn't make sense.

    Even with the bad economy...we shouldn't be this low.

    So it must be the Debt right?

  2. #2
    Newman is offline
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    The entire stock market is down. The DOW is under 10,000 for the first time since 2004. The consumer confidence is crap right now. Even though Sirius is still growing and many of the metrics look good, the uncertainty is what is killing the stock. Will Sirius be able to refinance all that debt? Will the terms be favorable? Will they have to dilute further? Will the company get delisted or will they have to do a reverse split? How will OEM sales do for the rest of 08 and 2009? Will holiday sales pick up for the dying retail market? What will the merger expenses look like? Will A-la-carte or best of be a hit or a flop? Will people still spend discretionary funds on SatRad? It is pretty much a given that we are in a recession, will a full blown depression hit? How will that affect things? I am faily sure that Q3 report which will be released in early November is going to look like hell. How much of that is baked into the stock price?

    The debt is one of the huge pressures on the stock, but it is not by far the only one.

  3. #3
    SiriusXMInvestor is offline
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    Newman,

    WHere is Tyler and Brandon? What happen to the coffee gig on Monday morning?

  4. #4
    frigginregan is offline
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    Way to make a dude feel better Newman. THANKS!

    LOL.

    Seriously tho. I hear u. But most of the things you mentioned are directly connected to the debt being refinanced.

    All I know is that a HORRIBLE 3rd Q BETTER be baked into the stock...LOL...or MAN ARE WE ****ING SCREWED!

    I know it's POINTLESS...but can you IMAGINE if the merger went thru in 3 months like it SHOULD have? We would have had nearly 2 years as a merged company before being at this moment we find ourselves now.

    Most of those issues would have been addressed, and I'm sure we would have had plenty of opportunities to get out of the stock if we wanted.

  5. #5
    bklynSal is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 10
    If we could get by this storm and not go BK, sirius will be fine no matter how bad it is it will get better even if it takes a year or two. I will bet you two years from now you will be looking at some stocks you wished you would have bought at todays prices.

  6. #6
    Greenland is offline
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    Joined: Jul 2008 Location: nation's capitol Posts: 119

    wheeeeeeeeee !!!!!!!!!!

    @#$% it !!
    i just bought a lump sum of more shares. I'm thai and our calender says that next year is my 10 year string of good luck. pretty much its a calender of motivation , knowing you'll do well , you yourself have to progress yourself and never expect anything to be given to you. and after the 10 yrs of luck is over you have three years of no luck. therefore you set yourself up in those 10 years of god luck so you don't have to worry when your luck runs out and get ready for the next ten years. ie- i quit my job being a restaurant manager of 4yrs. ( pay was great but wasn't happy career wise) so march 2009 i'm going to teach english in southeast asia and later in dubai. and i'll do this for five years or so and come back and buy my dream house.

    in five years ( 2013) i expect Sirius Xm to be $ 18. 60 a share. there 's still something about this stock that intrigues me and the way my life is going i believe the stock will follow me as well. and in five more years ( 2018) the stock should be $ 24.80 , and then we can all enjoy saltwater fishing on our own boats !

    gotta be positive !

  7. #7
    Krypto1 is offline
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    Joined: Sep 2008 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 21

    Newman is right on

    The refi issues are important, but the rest of the current issues weigh heavily as well. I think that the third quarter call will look ugly... It has to, given the lack of cost side disipline at XM prior to the merger. Some of this is baked in, but probably not all of it. There will be a large one time restructuring charge that will include everything but the kitchen sink, and hopefully a decent add of new subs. I hope that the analysis of cost reductions, and some light on the refinancing negotiations will help offset some of the negative headlines that you know we will see. Cost disipline is KEY over the next 12 months; I want to see a RIF, and some concrete examples of redundancy getting tossed out of the operating model. I know that this the one and only focus of Mel & Co at this point. Synergy is easy to talk about, but hard to execute. I do not want commercials, PR, & talk show bullshit right now. I want break even ASAP & at all costs. I know that a company can not cost cut it's way into big profits, but it use cost disipline to stay alive & viable for the next year. If SiriusXM can execute this, the tipping point on this thing will be reached and positive PPS movement will come fast and hard. Mel is like a good NFL QB, if you give him time, he will tear it up.

  8. #8
    Newman is offline
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    Friggin: Glad I could cheer you up! But it is not all roses you know... j/k.

    I am a rookie investor, and what I do know is all self taught, which means that much of what I look at, I look at incorrectly. Look at by debt article... I was WAY off, but I always preface what I say with a disclaimer that I dont know what Im talking about. One thing I have learned over the past few years is that you cannot look at only the bright side of things. You have to outweigh the pros against the cons, and decide which is better. Sure, many people see Siriusbuzz as a SIRI pumper, but I look at all sides. I have published negative articles about SIRI in the past as well, because I honestly feel that an investor needs to see all sides in order to be well informed. Otherwise, they may be considered "unsophisticated" or ignorant.

    I am LONG Sirius, but my current outlook is to hold. I am not accumulating until I see the Q3 results (which I think are going to be horrible, as I stated before) but more importantly I want to hear Mel talk about Q4 and beyond. At that time, I will reevaluate my feelings on the stock.

    I will not speak on behalf of Tyler or Brandon. Sorry.

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