Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 21

Thread: Karmazin, Convertibles, Conspiracies... and Goldman???

  1. #11
    Brandon Matthews is offline
    Banned
    Brandon Matthews's Avatar
    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: Northeast Posts: 721
    I'm certainly a guilty party, homer. You must have noticed that I was inspired today by your post. I then wrote an article on it, linking back to this thread. Then seeking alpha picked up the story within an hour of it being posted on SiriusBuzz.

    In a sense, there are now three forums for this discussion. This one, the article on siriusbuzz and seeking alpha. It's also Sunday and volume is usually light.

    The funny thing is, I think most people are in agreement with the hypothesis, so it leaves little room for debate.

  2. #12
    Jay Wilson is offline
    Member
    Jay Wilson's Avatar
    Joined: Sep 2008 Posts: 34
    Two guys from GS just came to my house and told me to tell you guys that it might be better for us if we left this topic alone.

    Have they come by your houses yet?

  3. #13
    homer985 is offline
    Senior Member
    homer985's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 485
    LOL, not yet -- but with BoA offering $44 billion for ML tonight... it wouldn't surprise me as the investment banking business is becoming smaller and smaller.

    Anybody want to start my car in the morning?

  4. #14
    Newman is offline
    Mentor
    Newman's Avatar
    Joined: Jun 2007 Location: Dallas Texas Posts: 1,162
    No, I will not start your car in the morning... I don't get hazard pay.

    -Honda Motors has a $33.2 Million convert with XM that was $3.18 convert price and
    -now with Sirius is a $.6913 convert price matures on 12/21/09 that will probably
    -convert.

    That will convert, but the dilution on that one is already built in. I REALLY hope that Mel wont push down to block that convert... especially with Honda being a board member, I really dont think that will happen.

    -Sirius has a $1.75 Million note matures 9/29/09 which will probably be paid in cash.
    Definately

    -Other that I think the $300 Mil convert in Feb. 09
    Should also be paid in cash.

    - $250 & $100 Mil Bank Facility expires/due in May 09, and the $400 Mil maturing in
    - 12/09 is all they have (not to minimize it). If there's anything else out there that would
    - be a surprise. These numbers came to me from Homer985 on a previous discussion and
    - verified by me in reviewing the SEC filings.

    The bank facilities may very well just be extended, no need to pay them off if they dont have to. Save the money for the 12/09 convert, but I dont think they will be able to pay off the whole thing without taking out another loan (or one of those bank facilities getting increased?).

    I think financing is good until next december... now we just need confirmation from the company itself.

    Edit: Thanks for the Info cos1000. Its good to see you back on the boards... been lurking for a bit?
    Last edited by Newman; 09-15-2008 at 08:37 AM. Reason: Thanks cos1000!

  5. #15
    deewcom is offline
    Enthusiast
    deewcom's Avatar
    Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 166

    Homer As Front Pager

    Homer drew over 1500 hits. He knows a great deal about the mechanisms of the market and individual companies. He applies his knowlege to offer sensible theories. IMHO, it would benefit SiriusBuzz to front page Homer in the NEWS section - for this article in particular. Perhaps a free-lance writing position if he wants it.

  6. #16
    WJDJFD is offline
    Junior Member
    WJDJFD's Avatar
    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: New England Posts: 8
    Well done Homer, well done.

  7. #17
    JasonL is offline
    Enthusiast
    JasonL's Avatar
    Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 107
    Well since Mel hasnt been looking out for shareholders, at least we have Homer P.I. on our side. Great work Homer.
    Homer I believe you can go to Frys electronics (or any other electronic retailer) and get on of those key fobs that remotely starts your car.
    Last edited by JasonL; 09-20-2008 at 12:18 PM.

  8. #18
    Demian is offline
    Mentor
    Demian's Avatar
    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,320
    Is this still a "conspiracy theory" ????

    Goldman reduced it's target to .50 and the stock hit .36 on friday...

  9. #19
    homer985 is offline
    Senior Member
    homer985's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 485
    It's not so much a conspiracy of them purposely driving the stock price down -- it's about GS putting pressure on the company to force them into exchanging the maturing Feb09 converts into new convertibles -- which would be very beneficial to the holders of those converts... namely GS, who just happens to own 40% of them.

    The pps target and the fact that it hit it is irrelevant. Its that they purposely (IMHO) put pressure on the Sirius pps -- which would make the refinancing more difficult. The more difficult it is, the more likely it is that Sirius would do the exchange, rather than buy back the maturing debt.

    That is why it's a "conspiracy" theory, IMHO.



    -------

  10. #20
    Demian is offline
    Mentor
    Demian's Avatar
    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,320
    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    It's not so much a conspiracy of them purposely driving the stock price down -- it's about GS putting pressure on the company to force them into exchanging the maturing Feb09 converts into new convertibles -- which would be very beneficial to the holders of those converts... namely GS, who just happens to own 40% of them.

    The pps target and the fact that it hit it is irrelevant. Its that they purposely (IMHO) put pressure on the Sirius pps -- which would make the refinancing more difficult. The more difficult it is, the more likely it is that Sirius would do the exchange, rather than buy back the maturing debt.

    That is why it's a "conspiracy" theory, IMHO.



    -------
    Mel just needs to come out and say flat out that the coverts will not be exchanged. None of this, "It's not something the company is interested in" kind of stuff. Either that or make a deal with the bondholders that would bring the price up. This limbo period is hell, but I'm sure Mel wants the best financing deal he can get, but this issue needs to be taken out soon to defend the stock...

    Maybe he doesn't want to piss off the bond holders more than he has, or maybe he wants to catch them off guard by letting them think they might have a chance to exchange the converts?

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •