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Thread: Sirius XM February 2016 Thread

  1. #21
    waldo29 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by JR999 View Post
    How about a draw and call it water under the bridge given where Sirius is at the moment. DM made a terrific call in moving out and Waldo was close enough with anticipating the shift that played out over the past few months. I suggest this in the spirit of those like myself who should have followed DM's lead while lacking Waldo's insights that are besides themselves today and feeling without direction.

    What do you guys and others think about the short and intermediate terms for Sirius? I have to admit if the SP was in that $4.00 - $4.20 range that I am done being long but that seems like a pipe dream right now. I understand that the world is in crisis mode and certainly a large reason for the SP decline but am interested in others thoughts about going forward.

    Thanks!

    JR999
    JR,

    Its a long discussion on the why SIRI will do what its going to do. It has to do with the macro and things specific to SIRI (QE juiced multiple, NOLS, Tax impacts on current FCF, buyback, cap ex, debt, types of debt and the overall debt market). Its a many post conversation on how each of those impacted the stock price in the past and how they will impact the stock price in the future.

    Mid term, the price is going to be impacted by positioning for the tracking stock split. The lows for this positioning are probably close to the 8/24 low. More down side in the next ~4 months from the 3.65 level. 3.65 won't go quietly as we are seeing now. The same sort of thing will occur @ the 3.35 level. The buyback will be used to defend that level. The thing you need to worry about is the rate they are using the revolver up with out a new issuance.

    Short term, I actually had one more impulse up while were were above 3.65. This was an earnings move, but it required a good tape and some juice. We did not get that, so watch for three closes in a row below 3.65 as a confirmation that we are going to revisit the 8/24 lows sooner rather than later in the mid term thinking.

    A lot of these targets change based on where you are when macro impacts take place. An example, say we are visiting the 8/24 low, we showed support and it seemed to hold it on a Friday. China does 5% devalue that Sunday night. We won't be holding the 8/24 low. That same sort of move by the PBOC when we are trying to hold 3.65 and I would say the 8/24 low would hold. Not saying that they will do a 5% devalue all at one time, they seem to want to stair step the devalue. But the gist of it is, the closer you are to support the more you are at risk of losing support due to the unforeseen. Know the levels, use the levels and it makes it much more profitable from a trade perspective.The same deal works going north too. We happen to be working with an impulse up and bumping against 3.95 and the FED back peddles and announces QE 4 ever, we are busting through.

    Things are eating my free time to post these days, I'll try to hop in from time to time. But only if its constructive, I'd rather spend my effort making money than posting to clarify misunderstandings and misquotes , intentional or accidental.
    Last edited by waldo29; 02-02-2016 at 08:46 PM. Reason: Fixed a couple typos

  2. #22
    JR999 is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2013 Posts: 30
    Thank you for the detailed and thoughtful response Waldo. I appreciate your insights and taking the time to explain things to me. I am a pretty factual person yet this turn compounded with a few other bad decisions with Apple and Disney have made it more personalized and emotional than it is supposed to be the last few months. It's all on me and no excuses but it is a shame this feels so much more intensified than it should be given that Sirius is such a terrific company with a fairly healthy track record the past few years. Thanks again for your insights.

    JR999

  3. #23
    dm_4 is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 2,750
    Screw it.....back in 10k shares at 3.58.

  4. #24
    bdp. is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by dm_4 View Post
    Screw it.....back in 10k shares at 3.58.
    You addict you! I've lost all respect!

  5. #25
    dm_4 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bdp. View Post
    You addict you! I've lost all respect!
    lol....now watch it will go to 2.75 just to spite me!

  6. #26
    bdp. is offline
    It does seem like the market fell a bit much today! Wouldn't surprise me if we gained much of it back tomorrow.

  7. #27
    dm_4 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bdp. View Post
    It does seem like the market fell a bit much today! Wouldn't surprise me if we gained much of it back tomorrow.
    yeah...its like Frear said....siri down along with the rest of the market for the month of jan. Just nibbling here. Jeesh where is Muscle....guess he is going to have to keep averaging down a bit.

  8. #28
    njbones1 is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Posts: 269
    too early, down to 3.53 AH

  9. #29
    BJH is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2013 Posts: 43
    Well this is looking ugly again. Yesterday at this time I was ok with my 3.63 buy. Not now.

  10. #30
    bdp. is offline
    Looks like another day of slaughter... DM you got back in too early! Are you averaging down or hanging it up for now?
    Note: Just filled 5k shares at 3.49! Scary as I did not think it would fill!
    Last edited by bdp.; 02-03-2016 at 10:48 AM.

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