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Thread: Sirius XM February 2016 Thread

  1. #11
    waldo29 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by dm_4 View Post
    I believe Waldo suggested a few weeks back that buybacks were being done at a slower pace. Seems the contrary based on the following statement:

    "During the fourth quarter, we spent $369 million to repurchase 92 million of our shares. In January, as our stock fell alongside the worldwide market declines, we accelerated our repurchases to nearly $200 million, repurchasing an additional 52 million shares. Our stock repurchase plan has now delivered $6.5 billion into the hands of our stockholders in just three years. We continue to maintain modest leverage of just 3.3 times adjusted EBITDA, and with no near term maturities and growing free cash flow, we have ample options on how we deploy our capital going forward," remarked David Frear, Chief Financial Officer, SiriusXM.
    Dm, don't confuse things. I said that when the stock was over 4. I may have reiterated right around the time we lost 4. The rate they were running was 130-140 mil shares per Q (I need to double check the exact numbers but well above 100 mil shares). They did buy fewer shares as cash on hand (from FCF and debt) ran low(er) and the price went up. Exactly what I was saying, less support and slower rate. They were tapping the revolver, but only selectively. Its short term funding, and is most impacted by rising rates (see the fed hike). They should be looking to pay that down via an new issuance, but the debt markets are in pretty rough shape due the the energy sector..

    I also said they would spend to protect key levels (~3.95, ~3.65 and ~3.35). All those levels required the price to decline for them to spend and utilize the revolver more (defensively). This also occurred.
    Last edited by waldo29; 02-02-2016 at 11:43 AM.

  2. #12
    dm_4 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by waldo29 View Post
    Dm, don't confuse things. I said that when the stock was over 4. I may have reiterated right around the time we lost 4. The rate they were running was 130-140 mil shares per Q (I need to double check the exact numbers but well above 100 mil shares). They did buy fewer shares as cash on hand (from FCF and debt) ran low(er) and the price went up. Exactly what I was saying, less support and slower rate. They were tapping the revolver, but only selectively. Its short term funding, and is most impacted by rising rates (see the fed hike). They should be looking to pay that down via an new issuance, but the debt markets are in pretty rough shape due the the energy sector..

    I also said they would spend to protect key levels (~3.95, ~3.65 and ~3.35). All those levels required the price to decline for them to spend and utilize the revolver more (defensively). This also occurred.
    I don't see how i am confusing things....it is was you suggested is it not? It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out the lower the price drops the more they are willing to buy. It was not meant as a slam even tho it seems you obviously took it that way. Don't get your panties in a bunch man. Fact of the matter is they accelerated buying when the price dropped.

    Btw...as i originally indicated i was just going off recent memory. Further check reveals you stated it when the stock was in the low 3.80 area not above 4 as you suggested. Maybe you stated it before then...i dunno..no biggie.
    Last edited by dm_4; 02-02-2016 at 02:18 PM.

  3. #13
    JR999 is offline
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    How about a draw and call it water under the bridge given where Sirius is at the moment. DM made a terrific call in moving out and Waldo was close enough with anticipating the shift that played out over the past few months. I suggest this in the spirit of those like myself who should have followed DM's lead while lacking Waldo's insights that are besides themselves today and feeling without direction.

    What do you guys and others think about the short and intermediate terms for Sirius? I have to admit if the SP was in that $4.00 - $4.20 range that I am done being long but that seems like a pipe dream right now. I understand that the world is in crisis mode and certainly a large reason for the SP decline but am interested in others thoughts about going forward.

    Thanks!

    JR999

  4. #14
    dm_4 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by JR999 View Post
    How about a draw and call it water under the bridge given where Sirius is at the moment. DM made a terrific call in moving out and Waldo was close enough with anticipating the shift that played out over the past few months. I suggest this in the spirit of those like myself who should have followed DM's lead while lacking Waldo's insights that are besides themselves today and feeling without direction.

    What do you guys and others think about the short and intermediate terms for Sirius? I have to admit if the SP was in that $4.00 - $4.20 range that I am done being long but that seems like a pipe dream right now. I understand that the world is in crisis mode and certainly a large reason for the SP decline but am interested in others thoughts about going forward.

    Thanks!

    JR999
    Hi JR.....not sure if you had a chance to listen to the cc or not. I listened to it and was not all that impressed overall. Who the hell knows what siri does near, med or long term. I think we have all been here long enough to know it can go to 3.35 just as easily as it could go to 4.25, its anyone's guess. I guess for the holders now its either cut bait in case it drops lower so you are not trapped for another year and put your money to work elsewhere or ride it out and see if it moves north. I know that when this was above 4 some here were saying a slight pullback to 3.90's followed by a run to 4.50. They were wrong. And then there were others who started in again with the 2.75 talk when it broke 3.80 etc. Pretty sure they will be wrong to just like they were the first time around. Just goes to show no one really knows unless they include a bunch of mumbo jumbo "if" theories and even then they are still prob wrong.

    I will however take a moment to admit i was wrong a few weeks ago suggesting it would run higher into earnings for whatever that's worth...prob not much.

    Just when you think you have an idea of what siri is going to do it does a 180 on your ass.

    Good luck man.

  5. #15
    JR999 is offline
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    Thanks DM. I cannot say your assessment is wrong as we have seen this behavior over time and appreciate the thoughtful response. I did not hear the call and was also surprised not so see some minor run up despite some of the other market decisions. Others?

  6. #16
    waldo29 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by dm_4 View Post
    I don't see how i am confusing things....it is was you suggested is it not? It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out the lower the price drops the more they are willing to buy. It was not meant as a slam even tho it seems you obviously took it that way. Don't get your panties in a bunch man. Fact of the matter is they accelerated buying when the price dropped.

    Btw...as i originally indicated i was just going off recent memory. Further check reveals you stated it when the stock was in the low 3.80 area not above 4 as you suggested. Maybe you stated it before then...i dunno..no biggie.
    Cheese and rice dm, you parse and twist words with the worst of them. I don't have time to play your games, I am going to leave you to guide the room with your sage advice.

  7. #17
    bdp. is offline
    Sirius will trade in step with the macro market just as most of the rest are. My feeling is we will trade mostly sideways for the next month or two.

  8. #18
    dm_4 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by waldo29 View Post
    Cheese and rice dm, you parse and twist words with the worst of them. I don't have time to play your games, I am going to leave you to guide the room with your sage advice.
    Not playing games, not trying to guide the room....hell no one would listen to me anyways. Just pointing out that the buybacks are being accelerated at these levels not being slowed down. Damn now ya have me thinking about cheese and rice....Mexican food for dinner tonight!

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  10. #20
    dm_4 is offline
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    Hmmmmm wonder where "Beaver Cleaver" is today....he has been rather quiet today.

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