No Nonsense Sirius XM November Thread

[user34615145]

Want my take? Unless you are talking about water cooler shows like Game of Thrones or Breaking Bad, no one cares when they consume it. HBO is holding back it shows for years and I'm still not buying HBO go, I just wait for the shows to pop up on amazon 5 years late. I couldn't care less and I'm not alone.

The downside to this is that GREAT tv shows get cancelled because of lack of viewership -- its happening more and more. These shows get cancelled after two seasons and then wind up with 5 star ratings years later. People complain in the reviews, "why the hell did they cancel this amazing show after only two seasons?!?!?!" well, because its been 5 years and you just started watching it now? Basically, its your own damn fault.

To your point last weekend I watched the entire last season of "Game of Thrones" using plex and cast it to my tv. At the same time my wife and daughter were watching "Cinderella" on Plex and later that night my daughter had some friends over and they pulled up "Inside Out". Not a penny out of pocket for enjoying any of those movies and the bathrooms were cleaner and the snacks better (and cheaper) than the theatre (I have an "in" with the proprietor). And - not trying to be crass here but being totally serious -there's a lot less chance of some crazy or some terrorist going on a rampage than if I was stuck in a movie theatre. No way i'm going pay to go into one of those death traps to see a first run movie like the new Star Wars in December when i can just wait for it to come out on plex for free in the new year. I'm in no hurry.

Technology is a funny thing. It changes things in ways you never thought it would. Used to be Playboy Magazine was the "go to" for soft porn, Penthouse if you wanted a little more adventure, and Hustler for the really dirty stuff....but you had to go to the news stand and buy one in a a brown paper wrapper, or subscribe (ah...the ol' subscription model!- and they "own" the content too. Foolproof right?) Well, the advent of the internet and the resultant proliferation of free porn has made Playboy a rather quaint relic of a bye-gone era and just recently they threw in the towel and announced they were no longer going to publish nudie pic's....WHAT?!!!!

Who knows where television shows and movies are heading as a result of free dissemination of content but there's a good chance it's not what you think it's going to be.

Edit: And before someone accuses me of pirating those movies, I was simply provided access to the library of titles of a friend (and quite an impressive library it is!) - Plex let's you do that. No different then lending a book out. Now where this friend got all those titles I have no idea, but just as I would assume that someone lending me a book had originally purchased it or was given it as a gift, I assume the same with the movies.

[MUSCLE13]

I'm supposed to read these theories? Seems like the same talk I heard about Pandora and Slacker 5 years ago......Business Models Matter. EBITDA matters. Margins matter. Content and Distribution ownership matters. It's not about eyeballs. It's about EBITDA.. Good night

[user34615145]

I'm supposed to read these theories? Seems like the same talk I heard about Pandora and Slacker 5 years ago......Business Models Matter. EBITDA matters. Margins matter. Content and Distribution ownership matters. It's not about eyeballs. It's about EBITDA.. Good night

You know, according to Mel Karmizan, Howard Stern owns the rights to all his shows. He owns the content.... SiriusXM just fronts the production $$$ and has exclusive rights to the first run shows from him like nflx does with "House of Cards". If "content is King" then Howard is royalty.

When you are relying on content from the outside creators and producers the price just keeps escalating.

This is an issue that SiriusXM is all too familiar with. NFL, MLB, NHL, rights? They (SiriusXM) don't own the content and have to negotiate their best deal at ever increasing prices every few years just to be able to continue to offer that content. They have the "Pipe" for delivery and some "original content" like H.S. but like I said above, they don't even own the rights to his library of shows. And for other content like MLB they are just one of many channels one could tune into in order to listen to a game. DIS has the "content" but not the Pipe...they NEED NFLX, and HBO and yes HULU and Regal Cinemas an the rest of the theatres to provide a venue for their content to be disseminated.

There is no perfect solution. You may say that there is a low barrier to entry for some possible competitor of NFLX and the like, but that depends on your definition of "low". You could say the same thing about DIS and it's content having a low barrier to entry because any pimple faced 17 year old with a Youtube account and a story to tell can make a decent quality video with his iPhone or GoPro and put it out there for all to see. BAM! Instant entry into the crowded field of media content! Not much in the way of scale but still...DIS advantage is it's size and scale. Same now with NFLX - They have scale. That's kind of what the author of this article below - which I posted earlier - was trying to say....if you bothered to read it before dismissing it as irrelevant because it doesn't fit with your narrative.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...mpaign=article

[SiriusBuzz]

It's not about eyeballs. It's about EBITDA.. Good night

How do you get EBITDA without eyeballs?

[user34615145]

How do you get EBITDA without eyeballs?

Exactly. You don't.

But sometimes you get the eyeballs without the EBITDA, like I posted above with my recent experience watching shows and movies off of PLEX. Several sets of eyeballs on that content last weekend and not a single penny going toward EBITDA.

[MUSCLE13]

How do you get EBITDA without eyeballs?

How many people are listening to Pandora in this country compared to Sirius? Maybe 3 times as many? Pandora is huge!

Look at Pandora's EBITDA

Enterprise Value/EBITDA : -66.24

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=P+Key+Statistics

But Sirius is growing it's EBITDA at the fastest rate in the media business. Business Models Matter. Revenues matter. Costs Matter. EBITDA Margins Matter. Competition Matters.

The old saying - In the short term the market is voting machine. In the long term it is a weighing machine. Learn EBITDA! That's what media investors do. Not traders, but investors. It would have saved you years of writing about what great businesses Pandora and Slacker are........

I was listening to the Investor Day last night. Meyer must have quoted Mel's Business Model's Matter line at least 5 times. I loved it. He even compared Sirius' EBITDA margin to Netflix! 37% to 7%. Pandora at 5%. He called Netflix "your darling" to the Wall Street investors attending. I loved it. LOL Meyer is funny like Mel! Well done!

[MUSCLE13]

Thank the Good Lord for Malone and Maffei. They treat media the way Buffett treats the entire market. Truly remarkable investors of media. I just wish Mel was still in the game......Oh well. Great conference. Enlightening. The Q&A's were superb.

Cable is going to take on the wireless market full steam. No doubt in my mind now

http://www.multichannel.com/news/dis...vitable/395291

[MUSCLE13]

Interesting that Malone wanted DirecTV to buy Netflix 4 years ago and DirecTV made a bid on Hulu 2 years ago.

Hulu has a chance to really turn this scene upside down. It really does. Even Jessica has talked about Hulu. I hope Time Warner invests in addition to Comcast Disney and Fox. I will be following.

[midas360]

Come to AT&T Malone. We will partner with you so you can have a Quad Play like we already do. I have a question, if AT&T has a "TRUE" Quad Play and we partner with Malone, does that count as "QUINTUPPLE PLAY?" By not owning their own mobile network is kind of like Netflix and others not owning the content, right? Same kind of logic, maybe? (MVNO OH OH OH ) crap

Oh the IRONY...

"At Liberty’s investor day in New York, Malone said the so-called quad-play of wireless, video, voice and data has been popular in other parts of the world like the Caribbean and Japan – and his own Liberty Global has been pursuing MVNO agreements in Europe. He said the time may be right for offering a similar product in the U.S."

[midas360]

Any snag some Apple? Fortunately, I did.