No Nonsense Sirius XM November Thread

[MUSCLE13]

Netflix doesn't own content???
Arrested Development?
Orange Is The New Black?
House of Cards?
Narcos?

As for the current agreement between NLFX and DIS for disribution of certain DIS Programming and movies, one could certainly argue that DIS needs NFLX more than the other way around.

All Content owned and produced outside Netflix - Orange is the New Black - Lionsgate (Malone). Arrested Development - Imagine Entertainment, Narcos - Telemundo and on and on. I forget which company created House Of Cards. You could look it up. Not Netflix. Independent - just forgot their name.

Give it 5 years. No barrier to entry on the net. I am thinking of subscribing to Hulu because the owners create and own most of the content. At least I know it will exist in some form because of the content ownership. Take care I am listening to the Liberty Investor meeting now.....

[midas360]

True Muscle... but they plan on owning it very soon.

http://www.digitaltrends.com/movies/...iginal-series/

[user34615145]

All Content owned and produced outside Netflix - Orange is the New Black - Lionsgate (Malone). Arrested Development - Imagine Entertainment, Narcos - Telemundo and on and on. I forget which company created House Of Cards. You could look it up. Not Netflix. Independent - just forgot their name.

Media Rights Capital, aka MRC, is the producer for House of Cards.

I think we can spar about the nuance of "orignal content" all night. My point is that NFLX owns the rights for the first two years of this original programming - they control it when it's most lucrative.

Just like I lease my car, I might not own it outright but I control it for what I consider the most valuable worthwhile portion of it's expected lifespan - the first three years.....after that I don't care what they do with it cause I'll have another new car and all the dealers will be falling all over each other trying to get me to sign their lease. Which takes me back to my comment that DIS needs NFLX at least as much, if not more, than NFLX need DIS. - plenty of other fish in the sea.

[MUSCLE13]

When you are relying on content from the outside creators and producers the price just keeps escalating. What are the costs for Netflix in 2016 - $5 billion? 2017 $7 billion? When you have to compete on the net for this content it will only keep rising. Plus Disney Time Warner Fox etc are all reviewing their strategies on how and when or even if they sell to Netflix anymore? They make a ton more from the cable bundle and TV Everywhere is taking hold. Plus Disney Comcast and Fox all own Hulu. Why wouldn't Hulu become the preferred OTT provider? They own it. Jeff Bewkes even stated on Time Warners last earnings call that they are likely to hold back content for years to go on streamers like Netflix because it is hurting their bigger video business on cable. May make more sense to bundle on demand rights with the cable providers than streamers. Iger said something similar on Disney's earnings call when he said just because they licensed to Netflix "How to Get Away with Murder" season 1 doesnt mean they will continue a similar strategy going forward. Murdoch from Fox has voiced concerns as well as playing up ownership in Hulu.

The whole concept is in flux. Truly I don't think the whole OTT industry is going to look the same in 1 year let alone in 5 or 10 years. Content and distribution matter. And strategies are changing all the time now. It's interesting to follow.

[midas360]

"Customers want video on every screen to enjoy their favorite movies, TV shows, music and sports. We’re setting the standard for delivering video when, where and how customers want it. With our acquisition of DIRECTV, combined with our AT&T U-verse TV service, we’re now the world’s largest pay TV provider. We have nationwide reach in the United States, plus 11 Latin American countries."

Probably one of many reasons why Warren Buffet ended up with AT&T stock. Not really "bragging" but I was ahead of Buffet on this one. Let's see if he sells it.

One of the biggest additions to Berkshire's portfolio came without buying additional shares. He ended up with 59 million shares of AT&T (T, Tech30) that he received in exchange for the 31 million shares of DirecTV he used to own, as AT&T completed its purchase of DirecTV.

[MUSCLE13]

"Customers want video on every screen to enjoy their favorite movies, TV shows, music and sports. We’re setting the standard for delivering video when, where and how customers want it. With our acquisition of DIRECTV, combined with our AT&T U-verse TV service, we’re now the world’s largest pay TV provider. We have nationwide reach in the United States, plus 11 Latin American countries."

Probably one of many reasons why Warren Buffet purchased AT&T stock. Not really "bragging" but I was ahead of Buffet on this one.

My opinion is Sat TV, telco TV, and telco wireless are all bad businesses under extreme competitive pressures from cable, broadband and wireless price wars. Good dividends but personally I wouldn't invest one penny in telco. I don't see the growth.

[midas360]

I could make the same argument about traditional AM/FM radio and Satelite Radio too? The thing you always have to remember is AT&T mybe the largest pay TV provider but at the end of the day, they just want the "data" on their network and want people paying for it. Eventually, they will want people who want their content faster to their customer paying at a premium. You ever notice that when you are watching a program on cable you have no "streaming issues?" However, if you rent an HD movie from Apple TV or a movie from netflix they are constantly buffering or downgrading the quality of the signal just so there are no interuptions? It could all be on the same connection too

My opinion is Sat TV, telco TV, and telco wireless are all bad businesses under extreme competitive pressures from cable, broadband and wireless price wars. Good dividends but personally I wouldn't invest one penny in telco. I don't see the growth.

[MUSCLE13]

AM FM radio definitely agree - No growth.

Sat Radio - fastest growing cash flow in the media business with accelerating sub growth, and 40% plus EBITDA margins shortly.

[SiriusBuzz]

I might not own it outright but I control it for what I consider the most valuable worthwhile portion of it's expected lifespan - the first three years.....after that I don't care what they do with it cause I'll have another new car and all the dealers will be falling all over each other trying to get me to sign their lease.

Jeff Bewkes even stated on Time Warners last earnings call that they are likely to hold back content for years to go on streamers like Netflix because it is hurting their bigger video business on cable.

Want my take? Unless you are talking about water cooler shows like Game of Thrones or Breaking Bad, no one cares when they consume it. HBO is holding back it shows for years and I'm still not buying HBO go, I just wait for the shows to pop up on amazon 5 years late. I couldn't care less and I'm not alone.

The downside to this is that GREAT tv shows get cancelled because of lack of viewership -- its happening more and more. These shows get cancelled after two seasons and then wind up with 5 star ratings years later. People complain in the reviews, "why the hell did they cancel this amazing show after only two seasons?!?!?!" well, because its been 5 years and you just started watching it now? Basically, its your own damn fault.

[midas360]

No respect for my comments SB? Always nice to see you jump in the conversation. I will beat this in everyone's head... AT&T is ALL ABOUT THE DATA. Even with the "Connected Car" they want to be the data connection that gives you ALL THE CONNECTED CAR EXPERIENCE! It's a small but very important piece. DATA CONNECTION for companies like Apple, Google, Sirius XM, etc... Don't let the "Largest Pay TV Provider in the US and 11 Latin Countries" FOOL YOU. The translation is they PROVIDE DATA CONNECTION SERVICES TO ALL OF THE U.S. and 11 LATIN COUNTRIES! That simple.