SIRI Monthly Thread October 2015 (with NFL Chat)

[user34615145]

Seahawks by 10 over the Lions tonite.

Well, the Seachickens won, but only by three. Still a win is a win and i'm 3-0 on my picks straight up!

[MUSCLE13]

First came the cable mergers, THEN CAME THE CONTENT MERGERS!!!!

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment...005-story.html

Malone at it AGAIN! Great News! Malone sees things in media 5 years before everybody else does, including Wall Street!

[dm_4]

Well to all you lions fans you truly got robbed last night. It's one thing to lose a game on your own merits...it's another thing to lose when a referee sees perfectly a illegal play and not make a correct call because he does not know the rules.

Jim Meyers to speak at fbr media conference Oct 6th at 8.55 am.

[beehaus]

3.90 boys!!! A close above 3.91 would be great today. I would really like to see a close above 4.00 before the CC.
Also Merrill's Jessica Reif Cohen reiterated her target of 5.00...again. Eventually they will get it. Summary below:

SIRI 3Q15E: bullish on key growth drivers With U.S. auto sales exhibiting no signs of stalling, we remain bullish on SIRI’s long-term
prospects as the SIRI-enabled fleet more than doubles over the next 5-6 years (~12mn
new SIRI-enabled vehicles hit the road each year). We believe SIRI’s business model will
benefit from several key growth initiatives, including: (1) continued strength in U.S. auto
sales – Sep SAAR of 18.1mn (YTD sales up +5%); BofAML projects U.S. auto sales of
17.3mn in CY15E; (2) a robust used car opportunity-as SIRI partners with add’l franchise
and independent dealers to expand user car trials (+33% y/y in 2Q), which are projected
to double to 15mn over the next 3-5 years; (3) record level trial funnels; (4) undervalued
in-dash real estate and OEM relationships; (5) differentiated content (talk, sports, news,
comedy and curated music); (6) incremental increases to OEM penetration rates
(expected to rise to 75% LT); and (7) an emerging telematics business well-positioned
for rapid expansion in the next 3-5 years.

Maintaining 3Q15 and 2015 estimates We maintain our 3Q and 2015E estimates, but continue to view our projections and
guidance as conservative (please see Exhibit 1) given strong SAAR results YTD (SIRI is
incorporating 17mn SAAR into current guidance). We estimate+378k total net adds
(+379k self-pay, -1k paid promo) in 3Q and +1.82mn (+1.62mn self-pay, +206k paid
promo) for 2015E. Our 3Q financials remain unchanged: (1) revenue of $1.15bn (+8%);
(2) EBITDA of $419mn (+10%) – margins of 36.6%; (3) FCF of $331mn (+24% y/y); and
(4) FCF/share of $0.06. For 2015E, our revenue and EBITDA estimates remain $4.52bn
(+8%) and $1.68bn (+14%), respectively – margins of 37.1% (vs. 35.1% in 2014). We
also est. FCF of $1.32bn (+14%) and FCF/share of $0.24. We now estimate 3Q buybacks
of $575mn and $2.23bn for 2015E, positioning SIRI well to utilize its ample excess
capacity for increased buybacks or M&A.

Reiterate Buy and $5 PO In our view, SIRI presents a core Pay-Entertainment holding, given: (1) fast growth, incl.
a 3-year (2014-2017E) revenue CAGR of 7%, EBITDA CAGR of 10% and a FCF/share
CAGR of 21%; (2) 70+% contr. margin; (3) sizable capital return capacity; (4) ~80%
EBITDA/FCF conversion; (5) rising new car penetration; (6) vast potential in the used car
channel; (7) differentiated content; and (8) connected car / telematics opportunities.

[dm_4]

Well, the Seachickens won, but only by three. Still a win is a win and i'm 3-0 on my picks straight up!

Pretty easy to pick heavy favorites straight up. Why don't you make it more like real life and pick the spreads instead?

[dm_4]

Great find beehaus. Thank you for sharing.

[denco1]

3.90 boys!!! A close above 3.91 would be great today. I would really like to see a close above 4.00 before the CC.
Also Merrill's Jessica Reif Cohen reiterated her target of 5.00...again. Eventually they will get it. Summary below:

SIRI 3Q15E: bullish on key growth drivers With U.S. auto sales exhibiting no signs of stalling, we remain bullish on SIRI’s long-term
prospects as the SIRI-enabled fleet more than doubles over the next 5-6 years (~12mn
new SIRI-enabled vehicles hit the road each year). We believe SIRI’s business model will
benefit from several key growth initiatives, including: (1) continued strength in U.S. auto
sales – Sep SAAR of 18.1mn (YTD sales up +5%); BofAML projects U.S. auto sales of
17.3mn in CY15E; (2) a robust used car opportunity-as SIRI partners with add’l franchise
and independent dealers to expand user car trials (+33% y/y in 2Q), which are projected
to double to 15mn over the next 3-5 years; (3) record level trial funnels; (4) undervalued
in-dash real estate and OEM relationships; (5) differentiated content (talk, sports, news,
comedy and curated music); (6) incremental increases to OEM penetration rates
(expected to rise to 75% LT); and (7) an emerging telematics business well-positioned
for rapid expansion in the next 3-5 years.

Maintaining 3Q15 and 2015 estimates We maintain our 3Q and 2015E estimates, but continue to view our projections and
guidance as conservative (please see Exhibit 1) given strong SAAR results YTD (SIRI is
incorporating 17mn SAAR into current guidance). We estimate+378k total net adds
(+379k self-pay, -1k paid promo) in 3Q and +1.82mn (+1.62mn self-pay, +206k paid
promo) for 2015E. Our 3Q financials remain unchanged: (1) revenue of $1.15bn (+8%);
(2) EBITDA of $419mn (+10%) – margins of 36.6%; (3) FCF of $331mn (+24% y/y); and
(4) FCF/share of $0.06. For 2015E, our revenue and EBITDA estimates remain $4.52bn
(+8%) and $1.68bn (+14%), respectively – margins of 37.1% (vs. 35.1% in 2014). We
also est. FCF of $1.32bn (+14%) and FCF/share of $0.24. We now estimate 3Q buybacks
of $575mn and $2.23bn for 2015E, positioning SIRI well to utilize its ample excess
capacity for increased buybacks or M&A.

Reiterate Buy and $5 PO In our view, SIRI presents a core Pay-Entertainment holding, given: (1) fast growth, incl.
a 3-year (2014-2017E) revenue CAGR of 7%, EBITDA CAGR of 10% and a FCF/share
CAGR of 21%; (2) 70+% contr. margin; (3) sizable capital return capacity; (4) ~80%
EBITDA/FCF conversion; (5) rising new car penetration; (6) vast potential in the used car
channel; (7) differentiated content; and (8) connected car / telematics opportunities.

Thanks for posting Beehaus. Maybe we can get a surprise from Meyer on Thursday to push us up and over $4 before the CC.


EDIT: Thanks for the heads up on Conference DM

[siriusly_invested]

I took advantage of the 3.90; dumped a big block of 3.76 then placed it back on the bid @3.85 with a couple hundred accumulated shares if it hits. Hoping to see a retrace off of 3.90, bounce up off of 3.85, then sail to our next level of resistance in the 3.90's.

[dm_4]

Question?...do we a confirmed cc date yet? Td showing Oct 22nd but I don't remember seeing official press release on it from siri yet. I am on vacation and Internet is down so trying to find info using my phone a lot more difficult. Have the wifi guy coming tomorrow to fix Internet issue. Tia

[denco1]

Question?...do we a confirmed cc date yet? Td showing Oct 22nd but I don't remember seeing official press release on it from siri yet. I am on vacation and Internet is down so trying to find info using my phone a lot more difficult. Have the wifi guy coming tomorrow to fix Internet issue. Tia

No official date yet and hopefully we don't get an announcement of the date until after Meyer speaks so as not to fall within 2 week window.

EDIT: Nice sell SLY...my 3.90 sell has not filled as of yet. Also have one on at 3.92......some recent margin shares.