Mr. F, I have always respected your remarks over the years, but I hope your not loosing it with that $4.85 by Jan. ( what year are you referring to ? )
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
Mr. F, I have always respected your remarks over the years, but I hope your not loosing it with that $4.85 by Jan. ( what year are you referring to ? )
It's the top end of where I would expect share price to go. It doesn't have to get there and historically spends a very small amount of time there. Sell target is not "this is where the price will be at that time" but many take it as such. It's simply a price where sentiment changes.
I take analyst targets the same way though perhaps I am in the minority. If an analyst has a buy rating and $X target I'd expect at the target on or before the date in question, their rating changes to hold or sell (personally I think "hold" is a shit rating :P ).
Same with sell targets and the price going down. Doesn't mean the person is saying this is the exact number the price will be at on this date... but rather this is the price I would expect would change my position on or before this date.
Meanwhile Live Nation is hitting all time highs. Liberty has picked another winner here and increased their stake this year. They figured out 2 ways outside of the unprofitable internet streaming companies to make money with music. Sat radio and live concerts.
How are the artists going to make any decent money as music has become a commodity anybody can get for free on the net? The pennies they get for streaming? No. It's live touring. Selling albums?? Where is Tower Records now............
Liberty knows what they are doing. Somebody is going to wake up one day and say Live Nation and Sirius belong together. Content and distribution.
Last edited by MUSCLE13; 12-06-2014 at 10:00 AM.
What are Faulkner's price targets based on? FCF or EBITDA? Forward or historical? I would like to know. I am always interested in the numbers. I see his price targets, but what valuation metrics are being used to calculate the target? Anybody know? Thanks
Last edited by MUSCLE13; 12-06-2014 at 10:16 AM.
I read a lot of analyst reports on media companies. I see companies valued on EBITDA, FCF, Revenues, Discounted Cash Flow, even old fashioned EPS (Disney). But I never see what you guys (besides Steiny who is great at it) are using to value Sirius here...........Why? Let's see it.......We are invested in stocks not lottery tickets. Give me some numbers to study.
SF...i know you have mentioned that siri could or may hit the high end of the 4 dollar range as a possibility in jan. I think you may have mentioned that a month ago or so. I guess my question is what do you see being the catalyst for such a move to say even the mid 4's in such a short time period? I know you are not saying its def going there but could. I as many here hope you are correct. If that were to happen....i prob would sell my core. thanks in advance.
Personally i viewed DM's question as being different. Valuations v catalysts. S.F. tunes muscle out anyways....cant say i blame him, i usually do too.Originally Posted by user34615145
Just listened to the Live Nation earnings call from October and I heard Tinker from Maxim ( who is a great analyst) ask a question then reference a stat that i sure didn't like to hear. 2 to 4% margin on reg concerts at the door vs 25% margins on festivals. Live Nation CEO answered with sponsorships at amphitheaters margins can go to 25 or 30%.
But that's basically advertising. 2 to 4% margin on concerts without sponsorship included??? I didn't know that. Sirius is approaching 40% margins. Sirius should stay away from Live Nation. Growing business but the margins, damn. Those are low. I read Live Nation may be interested in C3 which does Lollapalooza and Austin City Limits festivals. Better margins on those festivals and it may be a way to work a content deal with Sirius since I know Sirius has done deals for the audio from the festivals in the past.
I really like Live Nation's growth prospects. They are global. These EBITDA margins concern me a bit. Love Sirius' EBITDA margins. Best in media. I am going to listen to Live Nation's presentation at Liberty's investor conference next. Always do your margins research.
Last edited by MUSCLE13; 12-06-2014 at 01:21 PM.
Breaks my heart. You know how much I admire internet posters, especially Seeking Alpha writers like you and Faulkner who have no background or a clue about the industries they write about. Love me.......
Viacom and CBS may be in play. Wow! Media industry is never boring
http://nypost.com/2014/12/04/eager-b...-viacom-reign/
Reply With Quote