SIRI Monthly Thread December 2014

[MUSCLE13]

When someone is on ignore it still places their post up but it is hidden unless you click view post.

I clicked as I was curious what you were going on about. I just didn't want anymore roid rage personal messages from you...

"My guess is your portfolio isn't even worth one tenth of mine." Omg "bro"! Did you really just try the "mine is bigger than yours!" thing? Hahahaha...

I wish I could just turn the personal messages off and leave these up for the comedic value alone!

I sent you one personal message saying I have amassed over a million in stock investing, researching media companies for over 2 decades as a hobby, and calling you a rookie who doesn't know how to do stock valuations. The message was sent after you called me a moron on this board. Now, if you write novels about a stock and don't understand how to do stock valuations you have no right to call anyone a moron but yourself. What kind of moron writes continuously about something he has no clue about. Have you ever followed another media company in your life besides Sirius? Have you ever attempted to value a company on real numbers? My suggestion to you is stop writing novels and go back to school to learn.

[dm_4]

So you don't know how to do stock valuations but you do know how to lie? You said you put me on ignore. Do us all a favor and please do exactly that. Really, put me on ignore like you said you had.

Nobody needs to see your nonsense responses to me avoiding the real issue of valuating a company. Keep writing those novels and grabbing numbers out of the sky. You are a genius. My guess is your portfolio isn't even worth one tenth of mine. Nobody makes serious money in stocks without knowing how to value a company. This is the stock market not a casino.

Absolutely one hundred percent wrong....stock market is a casino.

[MUSCLE13]

Absolutely one hundred percent wrong....stock market is a casino.

For people who spend no time learning how to value a company and just daytrade, you are correct. For people who actually use their brains and understand that investing in a company's stock means you are buying their future earnings, EBITDA or Free Cash Flow it is definitely not gambling. It is investing. And likely the safest, most predictable way to build wealth over the long term. Real estate is probably the only other good long term option.

[SiriusBuzz]

Breaks my heart. You know how much I admire internet posters, especially Seeking Alpha writers like you and Faulkner who have no background or a clue about the industries they write about. Love me.......

Yet you are here with a bunch of internet posters being an internet poster.

[MUSCLE13]

Yet you are here with a bunch of internet posters being an internet poster.

Not exactly one like you who values companies on eyeballs and eardrums instead of cash flow, am I?

[SiriusBuzz]

Not exactly one like you who values companies on eyeballs and eardrums instead of cash flow, am I?

You didn't address my point.

If you believe us all to be pigs, and you're so smart, why are you in the mud with us?

[Faulkner_SA]

How did your valuations work out in 2007, Muscle? I mean, were you not calling for what... $10 a share or some crazy shit back then? This was on what EV/EBITDA or FCF/Share valuation, exactly?

The problem with guys like you is you say everyone else is so stupid, and everyone else should do what you do, except all you do is post up a bunch of speculation and feelings and this and that... and end up with the same exact results as the other guy who looked at it differently. Yet you're... smarter?

What EV/EBITDA or FCF per share valuation did you place on SIRI when it was at $4.18 last year? You have recently said SIRI is worth $3.80 per share based on these metrics. Did you mention a sell at $4.18 14 months back? Nah... Are you taking debt into account here? Probably not.

Sounding smart and being smart are two different things Your history of posting clearly shows you are relatively stupid, and winging around that you have built up a million dollars over 20+ years (in 2007 you mentioned you had been doing it for 20+ years as well so now it must be juuuuust about 30) is not impressive at all unless you're functioning off of minimum wage. You could have a million over 30 years with conservative investments and a buy on the dip mentality with a simple 8% savings rate off median salary over that time frame.

But you're smarter than everyone else You did it because of intelligence... the 37 year old who has managed to make more than you off of less, as a hobby, managed to do it by "luck" despite his own stupidity, no? (Myself or another 37 year old ... I shall let you guess~)

The reason I put you on ignore was due to your idiotic direct message to me after I simply asked who you were talking to in that thread where you were just posting a bunch of links and talking to ... nobody else? You wrote to me telling me how much you made over 20 (come on, it's 30 now if it was over 20 nearly 8 years ago....) years of research... and how stupid I was. Before that you kept pestering me to write about FCF per share here and on SA.

Go play with Midas. Go play in traffic. Go play with yourself (if you can handle how huge it is! omg! how did you manage to save so much over 30 years AND pay for custom tailored pants with enough room in them?!?).

You're a friggin' joke

[MUSCLE13]

You didn't address my point.

If you believe us all to be pigs, and you're so smart, why are you in the mud with us?

I like to to post information about media stocks. Mostly from reputable industry publications and Wall Street analyst excerpts. I think that is what stock boards are for. Good Information. I don't really enjoy talking with other posters on boards but unfortunately that's what most boards turn into. Not many good informative posters out there. On the CBS and Infinity boards in the 90s there was one excellent one Allydog. Great posts. On Sirius boards there a couple of decent ones - Steiny is great. Sirifair is another. But I don't see them post too often. Good information but I guess knowledgeable posters are discouraged from posting on boards. You guys want back and forth interaction between daytraders. It's unfortunate. I really enjoy reading and posting reputable media industry analysis.

[MUSCLE13]

How did your valuations work out in 2007, Muscle? I mean, were you not calling for what... $10 a share or some crazy shit back then? This was on what EV/EBITDA or FCF/Share valuation, exactly?

The problem with guys like you is you say everyone else is so stupid, and everyone else should do what you do, except all you do is post up a bunch of speculation and feelings and this and that... and end up with the same exact results as the other guy who looked at it differently. Yet you're... smarter?

What EV/EBITDA or FCF per share valuation did you place on SIRI when it was at $4.18 last year? You have recently said SIRI is worth $3.80 per share based on these metrics. Did you mention a sell at $4.18 14 months back? Nah... Are you taking debt into account here? Probably not.

Sounding smart and being smart are two different things Your history of posting clearly shows you are relatively stupid, and winging around that you have built up a million dollars over 20+ years (in 2007 you mentioned you had been doing it for 20+ years as well so now it must be juuuuust about 30) is not impressive at all unless you're functioning off of minimum wage. You could have a million over 30 years with conservative investments and a buy on the dip mentality with a simple 8% savings rate off median salary over that time frame.

But you're smarter than everyone else You did it because of intelligence... the 37 year old who has managed to make more than you off of less, as a hobby, managed to do it by "luck" despite his own stupidity, no? (Myself or another 37 year old ... I shall let you guess~)

The reason I put you on ignore was due to your idiotic direct message to me after I simply asked who you were talking to in that thread where you were just posting a bunch of links and talking to ... nobody else? You wrote to me telling me how much you made over 20 (come on, it's 30 now if it was over 20 nearly 8 years ago....) years of research... and how stupid I was. Before that you kept pestering me to write about FCF per share here and on SA.

Go play with Midas. Go play in traffic. Go play with yourself (if you can handle how huge it is! omg! how did you manage to save so much over 30 years AND pay for custom tailored pants with enough room in them?!?).

You're a friggin' joke

I have been saying for about 2 years now since Mel left on an EV/EBITDA basis Sirius is pretty fairly valued. At points it has been overvalued. Now that they are producing a tremendous amount of FCF ( they weren't a couple years back) and lowering the share count with buybacks they are very undervalued on a FCF per share basis. What John Tinker from Maxim uses as a valuation metric and I think he is right on target. Free Cash Flow is also what Jessica Reif Cohen used to use as her metric for Infinity Broadcasting back in the 90s and early 2000s. It's what Mel always preached at the conferences.. Now Jessica uses Discounted Cash Flow to value Sirius.

Back in the late 2008 period during the Lehman debacle and the Sirius stock crisis I was buying a lot of Sirius since I knew if Sirius got through it the EV/EBITDA and FCF numbers would come through after the fantastic merger. Before the merger Sirius didn't have any positive EBITDA or FCF. Very hard to value. I knew Mel had a target that he mentioned on earnings calls of $3 billion in revenue and a billion in cash flow but it was many years out. He needed that merger to get there. And he did.

I think your replies to me are to divert attention from the fact that you just never learned to do stock valuation even though you write about the stock all the time. That's my opinion. I think you are a rookie, and I wish more real investors would post. Yes I have been investing in the stock market since the late 80s and I have been following the media sector in particular since late 1992 when Infinity went public. Mel talked about Free Cash Flow back then even before the street accepted EBITDA instead of EPS for media companies. He was that far ahead of the game.

[MUSCLE13]

I think my time has just about run out here guys. I am sure I will be banned soon enough, so before that happens I will say good luck, have fun and learn EV/EBITDA and Free Cash Flow per share! LOL Take care dudes........