thxOriginally Posted by Faulkner_SA
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
thx
Last edited by dm_4; 12-19-2014 at 02:23 AM.
DM,
The stock behaved pretty much as I predicted it would, which is why I tried to clearly lay out a a simplified range strategy in my initial post a few days ago. I suggested to take profits in the 3.30's from a bearish swing trade initiated in the 3.60's (obviously, posted after you could have initiated the bearish position). In the 3.30's, I recommended day trading it.
Swing trade the outer limits of the range (3.06-3.66) to the middle of the range (mid 3.30's). It gives you the highest opportunity for reward for the risk you are taking. Day trade it back out via the direction it takes you. If it takes you down, go bullish for a swing trade in the low 3.00's. If it takes you up, go bearish for a swing trade in the low 3.60's. Remember, stops on either side a nickle out. Eventually you will be using those stops when the range fails in either direction. I don't suggest initiating a swing trade in the middle because the likely hood for it to continue in the same direction is at its theoretical peak and any stop is more likely to be hit.
The more often we visit the outer edges of the range, the more likely we will break out (either direction). Read that as we have been in this range for a long time and visited each end multiple times. This means your stops are even more important with swing trades the longer you are in the range. Don't read that as 'since we moved up for two days' I think we will be breaking out of 3.66. All I see is a 50% retrace off the 3.63 to 3.27 move with a close of 3.45. Also, with a close above the 50 and 150 day I would say the 100 day will hit before the gap fill @ 3.41.
I don't go long until the range breaks in either direction. Read that as long term shares that will be kept for many years thus locking up money. I do not care how long it takes to break the range. Again I don't have a long term basis at this time while we are range bound. I realize people currently with long term shares do care how long it takes, best guess is mid Q1 or mid Feb 2015. If we don't break out by then, I continue trading (swing or day) as long as they let me.
I am in day trade mode for now until we reach either of the outer edges of the range. However with the timing (Santa-Fed), I don't expect anything under 3.36 before the new year ex-news, macro or SIRI specific. If the 20 day hits @ ~ the 61.8 retrace (~3.50), I would cease day trading and wait to initiate a bearish swing trade in the 3.60's, again a stop a nickle out.
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Generally speaking:
[Swing Trade] Go bear-ish around 3.60-3.66 with a tight stop a nickle up @ ~ 3.71 (the break out mentioned above).
[Swing Trade] Go bull-ish in the low 3.00 with a tight top a nickle below.
[Day Trading] The 3.30's are no mans land to start a swing trade, although it can still work for you, just has a higher risk vs. reward. No need to work harder than you have to. In the 3.30's day trade or you should be looking to take profits from swing trades in either direction here.
[Long Term] Until 3.66 falls, buy long term shares on a 2.91 gap fill or 50% retrace. Same old same old, pick your spots to average in, buy .01/.02 in front.
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Looks like you have all your bases covered waldo....wish i could be that efficient. Since you want explain your trading techniques (not that you really need to)....can you clarify your 2.75 call for us. Are you saying that 2.75 is def coming or its just a possibility based on your own ta? when midas/st flםk came in here shouting go cash 2.75 is coming soon day after day we kinda figured that was just midas/st flםk being midas/st flםk. We at the time did not know he was acting as your personal spoke person. Thank god no one takes him serious or else there would have been a bunch of pissed off peeps here. Personally the more i think about it the more i think it was a busch league move. Hopefully, Next time you won't send a boy to do a man's job. Especially since that boy does not own one damn share of siri!
Anyway not that i need to forecast what i am doing trade wise...thinking i will nibble some on a sub 3.40 pullback should it get there in the next few days. If it hits the 100 day first or higher, i am perfectly happy with that as well...good for my core.
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dm... you've done a lot of damage to your brain cells smoking so much pot. Waldo has already gone over his analysis. Why don't you go back a reread what he's posted over the past several days. Spend sometime trying to comprehend what he said. Is it that difficult to understand? He put the "Generally Speaking" section just for you but you still don't get it. SAY NO TO DRUGS!!!
Last edited by midas360; 12-19-2014 at 08:37 AM.
I WIN. GAME OVER. CHECK MATE. I CONTROL YOUR EVERY MOVE. WATCH WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
they did it again
Capture1.PNG
i knocked it down by selling down the bid
Damn wolf child... I saw this too and was wondering what the hell was going on. Pre-market is 3.45/3.46. Are the signaling something?
I WIN. GAME OVER. CHECK MATE. I CONTROL YOUR EVERY MOVE. WATCH WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
DM,
I mentioned this in my initial post, 2.75 (50%) is on the table because of the break of 38.2% in April, it also fits the fifth wave and a price objective (one of many) within the nested H&S after one or more throwbacks are complete.
Nothing in this world is 100% for sure. One thing a lot of people do is commingle trading and investing with bravado and bragging rights. It's got no place in in my path to making money, it's a distraction to fight those battles. With longer term TA, 'A' leads you to 'B', if 'B' hits then you have to consider a greater likely hood of 'C' taking place. If 'C' does not materialize, so be it. News and cyclical trends can get in the way with longer term predictions (north and south) and why knowing 'the when' becomes more difficult. Its never about having to be correct, its about putting yourself in a position to make the most amount of money over the least amount of time with least amount of risk to your capital. I will gladly swap out 12-16 months of churning/trading within defined boundaries (range or channel) than nail a long range call 2.75 call or a bullish 4.85 by a specific date. I can guarantee you I'll spend a total of three seconds thinking about either come the end of January.
You should be reading all this as I made a 2.75 call/target, but it does not have to hit for me to be taking advantage of what the stock is doing while I wait to see if the longer term TA plays out. If we don't break out on this trip up, and we do happen to visit the low end of the rage again, 'raise cash' (have it available) to make a purchase while the stock is on sale to the extreme. It does not mean sell long term basis in SIRI @ 3.15 to buy again @ 2.75. A 12.6% decrease in price would not justify the risk to long a term basis, the math does not work out. It means; break open the piggy bank, sell your losers for tax lost harvesting and move money in to a position to make a purchase (if you choose to). Wash out events happen quick, raise cash to be ready for an opportunity.
[QUOTE=dm_4;86955]Looks like you have all your bases covered waldo....wish i could be that efficient. Since you want explain your trading techniques (not that you really need to)....can you clarify your 2.75 call for us. Are you saying that 2.75 is def coming or its just a possibility based on your own ta? when midas/st flםk came in here shouting go cash 2.75 is coming soon day after day we kinda figured that was just midas/st flםk being midas/st flםk. We at the time did not know he was acting as your personal spoke person. Thank god no one takes him serious or else there would have been a bunch of pissed off peeps here. Personally the more i think about it the more i think it was a busch league move. Hopefully, Next time you won't send a boy to do a man's job. Especially since that boy does not own one damn share of siri!
Anyway not that i need to forecast what i am doing trade wise...thinking i will nibble some on a sub 3.40 pullback should it get there in the next few days. If it hits the 100 day first or higher, i am perfectly happy with that as well...good for my core.
Like i mentioned yesterday Wolf....i think it very well could be a signal that they are taking it higher...could be today could be a next week. good luck. I may have forego the pull back and just get some at the open.
Lets make some Fkn $!!
got a order sitting on 3.43
Last edited by dm_4; 12-19-2014 at 10:33 AM.
I agree, more than anything it was the manner in which the message was laid out. We hadn't heard anything from Midas in several months on this board before that "call" to $2.75 "soon". This whole subsequent layout should have been the initial post and done so before the market started its downturn or at some point in the "sell"/"short" zone of the $3.60 area in early October.....if indeed the intent was to give a "heads up" to this SIRI board or to DM4 as he stated because he "knows him".
I also agree that the initial $2.75 is now off the table as it was wrong in its original form. These more recent posts if originally presented as such would still be on the table and in its present form is still on the table because it could happen.
Not sure why we are still having this discussion though especially with Midas involved since he doesn't own SIRI according to him....unless he is short which would then explain the fear mongering post of early October.
We all know that the reason this stock is stuck in the mud is a direct result of LMCA and the buy back. The fundamental issues used to try and explain a big move down do not seem to be there. As soon as LMCA wants it up.....away we go.
Last edited by denco1; 12-19-2014 at 11:32 AM.
After having to endure the incessant bickering over where the sp is heading, I have to point out that it is completely unquestionably irresponsible for anyone here to carelessly represent your opinions as "fact". To come here to a forum where most of us are visiting to read others ideas and views based on their personal due diligence is certainly valuable especially if those persons have made a wildly successful career trading. This forum quickly turns to shit for me when I see predictions presented as "fact", even going so far as tormenting the entire group with childish harassing mockery against anyone who doesn't agree with their guesses. I personally have made an enormous amount of money in this market over the past 5 years, but never a dime based on any "fact", implied or otherwise. Even Brandon Matthews Dominic LaViola has made a few great calls, but I have never bet on his "Jesus is my insider" method as it is, in my opinion, downright insane. I have made just as many, if not more great calls as him by simply, but painstakingly assessing all the information I can wrap my mind around and then placing my bets on what I have determined to be the most logical. The proof of a well functioning method is simple. I have made money. He has not. To this I ask that anyone who has an opinion, please follow with the disclaimer that it is your "opinion" and not some insider fact that you have become privy to or the result of your genius and you feel obligated to rub everyone's face in it.
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