DM,
I am going to chime in here, since this is my call. A break to the upside of 3.66 would denote a failed 5th wave. The lack of a gap close (2.91) at the bottom of wave 4 and failed break out of 3.66 says we might be in a larger wave 4, not the original .30 range, but a .60 range for wave 4 (3.06-3.66). As I have been saying since Jan, 3.66 is it. I go long term bullish on a break of 3.66 on vol.
There are several patterns at play longer term most notably (and simply); EW and nested head and shoulders off the top. Coincidentally, a break of 3.66 would negate some of the H&S as well as it would the fifth wave. Within the waves (shorter term to daily) I am trading the harmonics with Crabs and Gartley's. Intra-day, Fib's and gaps, low hanging fruit. The 2.75 call is obviously based on a Fibonacci 50% retrace from 1.27 which took place the week of 10/07/11 to the 4.18 high that took place the week of 10/25/2013. It came in to play when the 38.2 retrace (3.05/3.06) was breached on multiple days in mid to late April 2014 (sub 3.00).
Generally speaking:
[Swing Trade] Go bear-ish around 3.60-3.66 with a tight stop a nickle up @ ~ 3.71 (the break out mentioned above).
[Swing Trade] Go bull-ish in the low 3.00 with a tight top a nickle below.
[Day Trading] The 3.30's are no mans land to start a swing trade, although it can still work for you, just has a higher risk vs. reward. No need to work harder than you have to. In the 3.30's day trade or you should be looking to take profits from swing trades in either direction here.
[Long Term] Until 3.66 falls, buy long term shares on a 2.91 gap fill or 50% retrace. Same old same old, pick your spots to average in, buy .01/.02 in front.
Obviously if you have long term shares, its difficult to sell in wave 4, wave 1 was 'ideal'. Not suggesting for anyone to sell long term shares. Only suggesting to keep yourself nimble to take advantage of a situation to buy long term shares. 'Soon' is subjective and I am less concerned on the 'when it takes place' than someone who has a long term position. The 'when' is irrelevant when you are waiting to get in as you can play in other sandboxes and the 'pain' of a [short term] range stalled position is pretty much zero. Others, who might have a long term position (short or long), always want to know the 'when'. Sorry, TA does not always work that way and Fib Time Zones suck (IMO). You wanted to know what 'soon' meant, so I gave you a rough time frame. 3-4 months from mid October. That puts us @ roughly mid February before I could be wrong on the 'when'. Regardless of it hitting by then, 2.75 is still in play until 3.66 breaks on volume. I'll say that until the RMT and be happy swing trading it along the way.
I have suggested this before, this is a great resource and worth the money if you want to take TA seriously. It takes practice and will seem like voodoo until you put real time in and back test. Other than membership, I have no affiliation with this site. Great group of guys.
http://pebblewriter.com/
If you have a legitimate question, email me or you can hit me up in chat. No I am not CN. He seems to be driven by fundamentals and a little TA (get your mind out of the gutter), I am the exact opposite.
Please try to keep it respectable. You all are on a path to a yahoo quality forum, none of us should want that.
Originally Posted by midas360
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