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  1. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    12-06-2014, 02:36 PM #151
    Quote Originally Posted by MUSCLE13 View Post
    Viacom and CBS may be in play. Wow! Media industry is never boring

    http://nypost.com/2014/12/04/eager-b...-viacom-reign/
    If this turns out to be true, that they are both in play, I would expect to see EBITDA multiple expansion across traditional media. Man this is something else........Mel's old companies! Very big deal if it is true.

  2. crunching.numbers is offline
    12-06-2014, 02:52 PM #152
    Quote Originally Posted by MUSCLE13 View Post
    If this turns out to be true, that they are both in play, I would expect to see EBITDA multiple expansion across traditional media. Man this is something else........Mel's old companies! Very big deal if it is true.
    figure out why no one here replies back to you? take this garbage over to the red headed step child's cheezit chat room where it belongs. im sure those idiots will talk to you all day long. lol.

  3. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    12-06-2014, 03:03 PM #153
    Quote Originally Posted by crunching.numbers View Post
    figure out why no one here replies back to you? take this garbage over to the red headed step child's cheezit chat room where it belongs. im sure those idiots will talk to you all day long. lol.
    I usually don't expect any replies back because what can people say about picking numbers out of the sky? Does anybody here besides me and Steiny ever bother to look at EBITDA or FCF multiples. Doubt it. Just a bunch of daytrading gamblers.

    I do expect insults, which are always in abundant supply to divert the conversation away from actual media valuations and the actual radio or media industry which are fascinating to follow.

    I gotta tell you I am stunned that CBS and Viacom may be in play and i am just trying to gather info right now. EBITDA multiples should be affected if this is true. Will Malone bid? Will Rupert bid? Will Verizon bid? Will Disney bid? I will give you another one out of left field - Will Mel re-enter the picture??? His old companies..........Ya never know........
    Last edited by MUSCLE13; 12-06-2014 at 03:08 PM.

  4. Faulkner_SA is offline
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    12-06-2014, 03:56 PM #154
    DM... I don't really expect a $1 move up in the next 6 or 7 weeks at this point. Even if one expects some sort of blowout numbers release or better guidance for next year (No, and no... why would they release any good news mid buyback? why guide anything that could be perceived above neutral?). There is no interest in tanking the shit out here as any large drawdown pulls in new people who understand valuations and they don't want to compete on the buy side... likewise there is no interest in blowing the stock up to the upside here because any large move up puts them in competition on the buy side as well over $3.65 here with the traders and subsequently the buzz that would be created by the break and strong move up...

    They have to work within a certain historical range of valuations to drag the price.

    Working in a range becomes more difficult with the converts gone BUT it is important to consider that any shares delivered from the converts MAY be held aside in order to fill a share repurchase agreement from SIRI. For instance let's say UBS got 150 million shares on the converts and were not hedged short. SIRI issues ASR to UBS with an average range payout and a dollar figure for max they will buy back (let's say $1.5 billion).

    UBS holds the 150 mil shares and now has a short / sell buffer. They get the insider info... exec sales for instance, and work with the market to cap at $3.65. Traders help them cap it out... take Wolf for instance up there, he's buying support or where he believes support to be then selling resistance. So if he's flipping a couple hundred thousand shares around and then there are 100 wolfs out there (wolves?) the selling pressure in the low $3.60's is extremely high. Time ticks along, UBS scoops these shares because the traders are supplying needed volume, some long holders go .... "It's back to $3.60's, time to sell" and they sell out too, insiders sell, and SIRI gets a low volume day on a smoke and mirrors "bad news?" few million dollar settlement... UBS pulls from the 150 mil shares and sells them into $3.60's and tanks the stock down.


    Now UBS has 145 mil shares from the converts... however many shares they could skim from traders and longs bleeding out due to time... and an ASR guarantee to buy any shares they hold at the end for the average price.

    Average price is somewhat key here also to understanding why I believe it won't be tanked out. If you run control in a range and you are paid on average price, why bring the average down any more than you must?

    This is why I don't usually like to talk about manipulation, though, because these are just my suspicions. I can back this up with estimations and ideas but I can't go ok look... these are the hard numbers, it proves what I am saying.

    There are so many things that work together in complex fashion (at least, it's complex from an explanation standpoint... I know where it all is up in my head here :P) that it would take half a novel to explain it all and tie it all together.

    Until those shares from the converts are BOUGHT.... either due to being hedged short and thus cancelled out OR bought by the market OR sold back to SIRI, the SAME price control exists only MINUS the interest payment on it.

    I am actually willing to bet here that there will be a SMALL adjustment down to SIRI short interest on the late December release (if my assumptions hold true) and that will point to these bonds having not been shorted against to any great extent for the entire time.

    Anyways again as I like to say "blah blah blah...." watch the volume... Repurchase needs volume in order to skim, and it has been weak since mid October. Two ways to get more.... short it down which risks buyers coming in below historical low valuation and in my opinion these types are "sticky" such as institutional holders or individuals who are educated as to what SIRI is actually worth, or turn to buying at the $3.60's and scoop up allllll those shares the traders will seek to empty out like Wolf's shares he just bought at the 100 day along with other like minded individuals (you can see similar in comments on my articles, people saying they sold $3.60 but had to buy back in again at the $3.40's because of this senseless drop... expect those to sell again $3.60 as well).

    Once volume dries up traders back out as well which causes volume to dry up even more. They could play this thing $3.25 to $3.60 for another four or five months if needed. Options out suggest after Christmas an expected range between $3.50 and $4, and my expectations are about the $3.85 area for the next little top.

    Done correctly the buyback WILL KEEP SIRI IN THE LOW END OF VALUATION for as long as possible. It is best for LMCA and it is best for those who intend to hold for a long enough time to let the benefits of the buyback play out for at least a few years. Read the comments from people... people want out... people expected the buyback to overpay. People wanted a run up so they could blow out their stock and sell back to SIRI at a premium at the expense of those who wish to remain long (hello LMCA?). Think LMCA is going to bend over and let that happen... no. LMCA is going to guide this to the best effect for LMCA which means best effect for LONG TERM, and anyone who wanted the whole premium thing and to sell back high at LMCA's expense will be beaten out like stubborn dirt from an old rug :P Once they're gone, they can chase it back in if they want on the premium side of valuation on a sharp run up.

    The longer it drags the sharper and more dramatic I expect a subsequent run up to be. It may take another 12 to 18 months but who is going to sell to buyers once it moves again and retail is gone? LMCA? No. Institutions? Maybe... but if they're smart they'll make retail pay a hefty amount to get back in... (institutions are run by people, albeit those who are supposed to have a greater degree of understanding and knowledge about the markets... but they make mistakes too so don't expect them to function as a sort of collective that all act the same way).

    There's just so much that goes into the market. I find it very interesting, and one can sit there and analyze a company and come away with specific numbers for valuation but that is just the starting point. Understanding or at least trying to understand what is going on in the meantime, emotions of those involved, technical aspects of the charts, objectives of major players, etc... can go a long way towards keeping a stable mind for the duration you hold, and allowing one to add at low areas when one would otherwise be "scared."

    The same can make for a very effective trader but as I have said a bunch of times I'm no good with that on SIRI :P With that qualifier out there... if I WERE trading SIRI and I had just bought the 100 day I would be selling the 20 day on a bounce for a 2% scalp or at most hold for approx $3.58... I think it's a fake out though :P My long bias says next week at least returns to the $3.60's.... this is why I don't trade it :P

  5. Faulkner_SA is offline
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    12-06-2014, 04:12 PM #155
    Regarding what I said above RE: UBS. You might be like ... well if SIRI wants to buy back why didn't they just ASR on the convert shares ? (if they didn't...). Time. The control they offer. Buy 150M all at once or use them to knock the price down on strategic sales in order to allow for skimming over time as traders and retail bleed out?

    Keep hearing analysts ask why the buyback pace hasn't been faster. I would love to hear the company respond with "are you #!%!%! stupid? why would we do this in a rapid pace and run up our stock? so we could buy it higher? sit down, please...."

    Anyways it's about time that retail understands (and this is why I keep prodding people... it seems people do not get this....) that RETAIL YOU DO NOT !%!@$!# MATTER. There is a target on retail, and the weak will feed LMCA and those who align with LMCA...

    Why stay long through it all? Why not invest elsewhere?

    I don't have a good answer to that... honestly. Either you align with LMCA and be patient or sell and go elsewhere and thus feed LMCA... depending on your choices elsewhere you may do better, much better, worse... who knows? I don't know exactly when this is all going to be done... so for me I just hold and buy together with SIRI buying itself back. I'm 37... I have plenty of time.

  6. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    12-06-2014, 05:24 PM #156
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    I'm 37
    A 37 year old who writes novels about a stock and can't figure out EBITDA and FCF valuations. Unfreakinbelievable. That novel put me to sleep.............zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    How can anybody write about a stock price and not support it with earnings numbers? It's mindboggling......
    Last edited by MUSCLE13; 12-06-2014 at 05:30 PM.

  7. dm_4 is offline
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    12-06-2014, 05:58 PM #157
    Thanks for the response SF...love it when you keep them short n sweet

    I think you are correct, its all about the buybacks for the time being. Steady as she goes. Thanks again SF.

    Long n Strong Siri!!

  8. Faulkner_SA is offline
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    12-06-2014, 06:16 PM #158

    Thumbs up

    muscle13 you're a complete moron get back to talking with midas and typing to yourself in threads where you are the only participant. Trying over and over to get me to write about what you want me to write about, both here and in direct messages, will get you absolutely nowhere.

    In short. GFY

  9. MUSCLE13 is offline
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    12-06-2014, 06:30 PM #159
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    muscle13 you're a complete moron get back to talking with midas and typing to yourself in threads where you are the only participant. Trying over and over to get me to write about what you want me to write about, both here and in direct messages, will get you absolutely nowhere.

    In short. GFY
    So you don't know how to do stock valuations but you do know how to lie? You said you put me on ignore. Do us all a favor and please do exactly that. Really, put me on ignore like you said you had.

    Nobody needs to see your nonsense responses to me avoiding the real issue of valuating a company. Keep writing those novels and grabbing numbers out of the sky. You are a genius. My guess is your portfolio isn't even worth one tenth of mine. Nobody makes serious money in stocks without knowing how to value a company. This is the stock market not a casino.

  10. Faulkner_SA is offline
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    12-06-2014, 06:45 PM #160
    When someone is on ignore it still places their post up but it is hidden unless you click view post.

    I clicked as I was curious what you were going on about. I just didn't want anymore roid rage personal messages from you...

    "My guess is your portfolio isn't even worth one tenth of mine." Omg "bro"! Did you really just try the "mine is bigger than yours!" thing? Hahahaha...

    I wish I could just turn the personal messages off and leave these up for the comedic value alone!

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