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  1. dm_4 is offline
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    11-15-2014, 08:28 PM #101
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    Dunno but I need that number to write what I was looking to write (the institutional percentage).

    Not really interested in writing if it's going to be picked apart so I'll probably skip writing anything.
    Cmon SF fck the haters.....pump one out kid!

  2. Faulkner_SA is offline
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    11-16-2014, 12:49 AM #102
    It's kinda waste of time :P Can read the pie one from August, same applies here for the most part.

    What % did they retire on shares last quarter? 3.13%? And about 14.5% left in retail.

    Institutions fluctuate... generally going down one quarter and up the next. They moved about a half percent OUT of SIRI last quarter so it is reasonable to assume a half percent back in next.

    We know as of the call SIRI had bought back 46 mil shares, just shy of a percent.

    If SIRI buys back the same amount and institutions roll in a half percent this quarter then you're looking at 11% retail left at the end of the year or about 14.5 % if SIRI does nothing about the converts and lets those leak out or if they are shorted against and are already "out there."

    If SIRI has an ASR on the converts then it is reasonable to assume they are NOT shorted against... else the other party would need to cover the short (read : stupid) because the shares would already be promised and effectively short already within the ASR. That would mean the 240 mil shorts are option hedged or simply shorts... and that's 5% of float, and if retail is at 14 to 15% only ... that's extremely high risk to carry in 2015 if they are not hedged.

    Anyways what it boils down to is the whole SIRI / Pie thing I wrote in August as simply 3% closer to reality, and SIRI has outstanding authorization to chew up the rest of retail over the next 12 months using half FCF and half debt.

    This is the RIGHT way to do a buyback and I am thrilled that SIRI has done this properly. For all that talk about how SIRI would over leverage / ratchet up debt / and LMCA would force SIRI to pay some huge dividend and suck all the cash out and blah blah blah over pay for shares blah blah blah, it hasn't happened. Honestly none of the doom and gloom nonsense has ever happened. Streaming hasn't killed the company. Churn has not increased. Growth has not slowed significantly.

    In 2 years SIRI will have repurchased what... 20% of its own shares? LMCA will guide the vacuum for a bit longer, suck up another 10% or so from retail, and spin out something healthy like SIRI and LYV (LMCA has little else other than the Braves... all the other shit hardly contributes to market cap).

    That OR LMCA will keep things as they are and continue to have SIRI buy back, and at the same time have LMCA buy back its own shares... I think many people ignore something pretty damn important here, and that is that SIRI and LMCA, being so closely tied and KEPT tied through arbs, allows buybacks from both ends to be extremely effective IF SIRI CAN BE KEPT STABLE IN PRICE OVER TIME.

    While people focus on little lawsuits or miniscule quarter to quarter fluctuations in things like customer service and billing or when rounding on churn takes it from 1.8 to 1.9 to 1.8 to 1.9... and while people get "tired" of "this" "stagnant" "shit stock" "dead money" etc... money exits, and SIRI and LMCA both buy back their own shares.

    At some point the game is up, and the stock moves to reflect value. The more shares that have been retired at lower prices, the larger the move.

    Could be early as the next few months (if my idea that the converts provide price control hold true), could take a year or two. I really have no idea. But one thing is for sure... I'm not nervous about any of this and I couldn't care less if my investment sits there flat for a year or two. So long as SIRI is buying back, I'm adding, and the more crying and whining and complaining, the better. Sell those shares!

  3. Faulkner_SA is offline
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    11-16-2014, 01:49 PM #103
    Maybe. I'd have to polish it up then deal with the comments. The whining about how SIRI isn't moving. The "where's my $5 you said was coming by January?" The "actually it's 43.3144% a little more than the 43.3% you stated.." The above jumble of stuff takes me a few minutes, and a lot of it is simple speculation.

    I'll get $50 for the article, and 20 messages in my inbox that I feel obligated to respond to. Unless it received Pro status (which I don't care to spend the time to make it one and it's a crap shoot if it got accepted as such) and didn't make a couple grand it's not worth my time.

    Most everyone wants to just see SIRI go up anyways. You see it in the comments from people everywhere, including here. If it's down it's that mysterious "they" doing it. If it's up, well "they" let it go up. Stock is dead. Stock is shit. Talking about this or that trade and wondering why it didn't pass $X.XX and ignoring the fact that, well, maybe others are trading it as well and you all are buying similar trend support and selling similar trend resistance...

    Most of those who comment have little to no interest in what a stock does in a few years when tomorrow is only a day away, and I'm in it for an investment and a longer term. At this point LMCA / SIRI should be able to hammer out the majority of retail for under the highs from last year since so many can't wait to sell it. "investors" like me for who the day to day movements are simply a curiosity and who are happy to buy dips and go along for the ride are but a VERY small portion of retail. Extremely small. 5% or less of the stock.

    Maybe now that I am in the mood I'll write something. Thanks. Don't come in the comments and be stupid telling people to sell bottoms and look for lower. Actually, nevermind. Do that. :P Get 'em out of the stock.

  4. Faulkner_SA is offline
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    11-16-2014, 04:10 PM #104
    Submitted one. Wrote more here though. If they kick it back for edits I'm just deleting it.

  5. Faulkner_SA is offline
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    11-16-2014, 06:20 PM #105
    Everyone would be my customer if I was writing for the income. It's horrible money for the time spent.

    I'd be happy to own a bad call if I made one. Have been quite clear that I'd prefer SIRI drag through the buyback rather than it race to my sell target of $4.85. I'm happy it has. My boundaries still exist and approx $3.25 / $4.85 for late January 2015 is an acceptable range for the stock. 2016 January we'll go with about $3.65 / $5.25 bottom / top end. I'd expect LMCA to equity swap the whole thing before January 2016, though with near 100% probability it is done before Jan 2017.

    Longer term we'll see. I can see scenarios where SIRI could hit $20 by 2020 YE. Nobody gives a shit about 5 and 6 year targets though Most just want to know if they can double it tomorrow... looking for the next little piece of news to make the stock fly... hanging on the notion that soandso speaking at whatever conference might just be that catalyst that the stock needs to print some green on paper in the old account... :P

    Those who took my advice on spreads this year sit at a double at current prices and can cash in. Done. I wish I took my own advice... Anyone who took a $4.85 sell target as a low value guarantee target needs their head examined.

    For 2015 tighten the spread or go with the same one. Doesn't much matter though the RVR favors the same spread here. You can pick up a 2.50 / 4 for '16 for about 75 cents and likely double it again as I'd expect $4 EOY to be towards the bottom end of valuation in Jan 2016.

    Investing is less about picking tops and more about picking lower bounds and buy points (until you are looking to sell, of course).

  6. Faulkner_SA is offline
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    11-17-2014, 04:39 AM #106
    Oh I have Short term yes, certainly. Whenever I try trading I often do quite well and then blow it all in a single trade. Such is life! This is why I tell people don't ask me for trading advice, short term predictions, exact price predictions vs. a range... I don't know which way the wind will blow tomorrow.

  7. Wolf Child is offline
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    11-18-2014, 12:00 PM #107
    Back on 10/24 I asked.....
    Quote Originally Posted by Wolf Child View Post
    what is the relationship between UBSS and FLOW? on days like this (and yesterday) they sit together atop the mountain
    A few days later I began referring to them as "F.U.".....

    I can hardly believe the dominating daily control they have kept over our sp for the next 3 weeks.

    Better than tanking 5% for no good reason I guess. I can almost hear the cork readying to pop.

  8. dm_4 is offline
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    11-18-2014, 12:15 PM #108
    acting right now like it wants to see 3.54

  9. Wolf Child is offline
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    11-18-2014, 12:17 PM #109
    Think about how many times us reets have been called crazy, paranoid, delusional etc by bloggers/writers for accusing "them" of manipulating the sp. Point has been officially proven in my book. Any type of control imposed over the sp movement qualifies as manipulation imo.

    Do not attempt to change the channel.... we are in control
    Last edited by Wolf Child; 11-18-2014 at 12:23 PM.

  10. dm_4 is offline
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    11-18-2014, 12:17 PM #110
    btw sf thanks for the article.

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