SIRI Monthly Thread November 2014

[beehaus]

Anyone buying LMCA at these levels? I traded it earlier in the year and made a fews bucks. Down 26% is soooo tempting...

[denco1]

It's down 26% because of the spinoff, not performance. A shuffling of the deck/in one pocket out the other/no change in value but more clarity....in time...EDIT- which could push it higher...I hope as I am long.

[Slip60]

I hope those "individuals" who gave thousand of dollars were all "made up names," by BM

It is hard to believe that not even one post for weeks. I'd expect to see something saying "siri short interest at 123%, something seems wrong" and then BM responding that "arca blocked the info from us and I had to run it all manually, was up half the night, but it's fixed now" He might add "I will take the last 2% off the table if no one is smart enough to grab it by Friday".

[bdp.]

He took everyone's money and bought himself a house. It's on his FB page. One word comes to mind and it's GRIFTER. It's a scam.

I could not believe how he effortlessly was able to hoodwink his followers into handing him over $100k! Brandon Matthews succeeded in creating his own personal Jonestown. Next on the agenda: Get them to drink the Kool Aid.

[Wolf Child]

entangled between the 50 & 100 day on the daily and weekly charts. If it weren't for the 3.38/39 gap which is the 200 day I'd load up here.

gonna hold with the shares I have and the buys I have in @ 3.39 (which I hope we never see)..... although there was one quick spike down on Halloween at 14:25pm that could be considered as possibly filling the gap.

[bdp.]

entangled between the 50 & 100 day on the daily and weekly charts. If it weren't for the 3.38/39 gap which is the 200 day I'd load up here.

gonna hold with the shares I have and the buys I have in @ 3.39 (which I hope we never see)..... although there was one quick spike down on Halloween at 14:25pm that could be considered as possibly filling the gap.

Agreed. I have had GTC buys in at 3.38 & 3.39 since last week.

[SlapShot27]

He took everyone's money and bought himself a house. It's on his FB page. One word comes to mind and it's GRIFTER. It's a scam.

If BM did buy himself a house with "corporate" funds, couldn't investors sue him for misappropriation of funds? I know if it was my money that BM had "allegedly misused" I would want to take action to minimize the opportunities of BM doing it to someone else in the future.

[Faulkner_SA]

Still waiting on institutional ownership percentage but by my estimation SIRI retail only owns about 15% of SIRI, worth about 2.8 billion right now.

Still over 2 billion left authorized to buy back.

Consider the short position is about 800 million and if covered and institutions held, would have to come from retail...

Can probably see where I am going here. Current authorization is enough to repurchase all remaining retail shares.

Since retail will not all sell... 2015 should see significantly decreased volume in trading. It becomes very very risky to be unhedged and short.

This has all played out MUCH faster than I figured. I expected LMCA to sell more back into the buyback (and they may still do it but ... not expecting it). I was looking for this time in 2017, not 2015.

Pretty bullish for 2015 the more I think about this. Not looking for the stock to shoot the moon or anything but I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant move towards $5 quickly at some point. It's still my "sell" target for Jan but I wouldn't be interested in selling it there.

LMCA has been masterful with this

[MUSCLE13]

I wanted to personally share a report from Morgan Stanley on Sirius XM. I think you guys will find it very informative and encouraging.

Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Swinburne suggests using LMCK to gain exposure to SIRI as it trades at a 10% discount to NAV.

"Investment thesis: We are relatively constructive on SIRI’smedium-term fundamentals, but prefer exposure via OW-ratedLMCK, that we estimate trades at a ~10% discount to NAV,with (1) sub growth increasingly driven by used car sales andless driven by SAAR as SIRI radios penetrate the US autoinstalled base (>60M satellite-equipped vehicles on the roadexpected to double over the next 5 yrs), (2) pricing power, and(3) high incremental margins. However, we believe SIRI’s~14x ‘16E EBITDA multiple reflects strong growth, particularlygiven likely increased competition for its core audio services inthe connected car."

Here is a link to the report from Morgan Stanley titled:

Sirius XM Radio Inc. 3Q14: Solid results, with subs and ARPU a bit ahead

Totally disagree with Swinburne's Sirius valuation. They are growing EBITDA and FCF per share at 20%+ clips annually. At 20 time both metrics, which is logically warranted, you get about $5 by year end 2015 and $6 by year end 2016.

[bdp.]

Totally disagree with Swinburne's Sirius valuation. They are growing EBITDA and FCF per share at 20%+ clips annually. At 20 time both metrics, which is logically warranted, you get about $5 by year end 2015 and $6 by year end 2016.

i'll be thrilled when it hits $4 again.