From 3.15 to 3.60 in a little over a month, 31% increase...glad to see it!
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
From 3.15 to 3.60 in a little over a month, 31% increase...glad to see it!
Why do you think I was buying in the 3 dollar range earlier this year. First time I got interested in buying since Mel left. The stock was extremely undervalued based on Free Cash Flow per share. And at the rate they are growing FCF and buying back stock it should be an awesome 2 year run.Originally Posted by dm_4
Free Cash Flow per share matters.
Almost 6 Mil. shares traded after hrs. tonight. ( Buy Back ??????????)
After hours: Low 3.59, Hight 3.615
Think there was some index rebalancing today at end of day.
I am a little more optimistic than you Muscle. I have a target of 5.50 by year end 2015 and 7 by year end 2016. I'm all in from many years ago with core and bought a bunch more at the 3.30 level. I'm really looking for this stock to get back on track the next 24 months no matter what ticker SIRI is sporting.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone in SIRI-land!
Are your targets based on FCF multiples or are they on EV/EBITDA multiples? Pretty aggressive dude. Love to know your numbers. Please post them. Thanks
Last edited by MUSCLE13; 11-26-2014 at 02:23 PM.
Sorry I should have clarified that this is based on my amateur technical analysis. Basically drawing a trend line from Feb 2009 to today and extending it out. My optimism comes from seeing the breakdown to Sept/Oct 2011 through June 2012 and then seeing the stock get back on track to the peak of Oct 2013, when went from roughly 1.85 to 4.05. So if we get back on track we could see a similar run in the next 24months. Aggressive I agree, but I don't think is irrational either. Really only .70 to 1.00 above your estimates.
Any other tech analysis guys out there that have a similar or different take?
Understood. Sorry I don't believe in technical analysis at all. My numbers are based on projecting 19 cents FCF per share this year, 24 cents FCF ps 2015, and 30 cents FCF ps 2016. I think my 2016 is a little above consensus FCF but not many analysts are reaching that far out yet. I believe Jessica has a couple pennies lower, and I am not sure why. I know she is projecting 20% annual EBITDA growth out a few years which I love. Spencer never once believed me that Sirius could continuously produce 20% EBITDA growth years ago. And they have produced it year in and year out since. The numbers don't lie. Mel's plan all along. Very happy that Meyer follows it precisely. And gives us FCF per share #'s every single quarter. Mel was talking about FCF back in the early 90s with Infinity Broadcasting, even before the street was considering EV/EBITDA let alone FCF.......
Last edited by MUSCLE13; 11-26-2014 at 03:32 PM.
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