SIRI Monthly Thread November 2014

[MUSCLE13]

Some of the media stocks I follow pretty closely as a hobby - Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Sirius, Charter and lately Disney and CBS. Also interested in starting to research Live Nation. Anybody else have any other interesting media stocks they follow? Looking for some smaller ones to follow. I have done cursory reviews of TWX Viab and Fox as well but not that interesting to me. Although when Fox made that bid for TWX it certainly got Wall Street's attention very quickly. LOL

It's interesting to me how content has been higher valued on an EBITDA multiple basis than distribution, but distribution has been making a huge comeback, especially because of Malone's interest in cable consolidation. Advertising certainly hasn't been where it used to be because of so much inventory. Analog dollars turned into digital dimes and mobile pennies (Mel). Mel also used to say advertising advertising advertising. But since Sirius he started saying subscription subscription subscription. Malone always said subscription......interesting takes on the industry.

I do believe cable one day is going to attempt to take mobile phones away from the cellular providers by competing with Wi-Fi first phones. I think that shift happens within 5 years.

[MUSCLE13]

And Steiny - I know you check this board out. I truly believe that Meyer lowballed this year's 4th quarter numbers strictly because of what happened to the stock when he tweaked last year's 4th quarter subs down. In my opinion, there is absolutely no way he will put Sirius in that position again, and that's why I think he is lowballing on the estimates. I know you have concerns on the 4th quarter Steiny. Not me.

[hedymoney]

I've been around long enough to see your sp predictions based on your preferred metrics for YEARS and you sir are no Oracle. Your few postings in the short amount of time you've been participating here have had less than a respectful tone. Maybe when your predictions become more accurate you can tell others how they should or shouldn't proceed with their strategies.

EDIT: My case has just been made by Midas +2ing you

Hey Wolf / Denco.
I've noticed that Brandon Mathews has his new site just about ready to go.
http://realshortdata.com/
Apparently he's launching this weekend if your interested. I've noticed that everyone's best friend Midas has been agitating many folks here. Quite a pain in the rear if you ask me. Not that you did. Just my observation.
This is why I'm not a frequent participator here. Just another site to try site to stir up the poop.
Worth a look. If you get a chance. Daily short data for all stocks.
Take care.
Later fellas.
Money

[SlapShot27]

BLOOMBERG.COM: Vodafone weighing takeover of Malone's Liberty Global

[Steiny]

And Steiny - I know you check this board out. I truly believe that Meyer lowballed this year's 4th quarter numbers strictly because of what happened to the stock when he tweaked last year's 4th quarter subs down. In my opinion, there is absolutely no way he will put Sirius in that position again, and that's why I think he is lowballing on the estimates. I know you have concerns on the 4th quarter Steiny. Not me.

i was worried either one quarter... q3 or q4 wouldnt be good. but that was solely based on guidance. we all know they lowball guidance but in the past it hasnt been insanely off but they typically beat. but yea, im sure that they are lowballing because of what last time and dont want be in that situation again.

i just wouldve thought guidance wouls have been upped more significantly because the gm deal change should be basically flushed through now. should be an interesting few months especially with liberty spin off done, convertibles done etc...

[midas360]

For the record... Hedy is Brandon. Have a nice day!

Hey Wolf / Denco.
I've noticed that Brandon Mathews has his new site just about ready to go.
http://realshortdata.com/
Apparently he's launching this weekend if your interested. I've noticed that everyone's best friend Midas has been agitating many folks here. Quite a pain in the rear if you ask me. Not that you did. Just my observation.
This is why I'm not a frequent participator here. Just another site to try site to stir up the poop.
Worth a look. If you get a chance. Daily short data for all stocks.
Take care.
Later fellas.
Money

[MUSCLE13]

BLOOMBERG.COM: Vodafone weighing takeover of Malone's Liberty Global

Thanks for the info. Doubt Malone sells. He is so high on cable and admitted to regretting selling TCI in the 90s. Even though he got a 40% premium to a full valuation. Largest US cable provider at the time.

Points to a discussion at the Liberty investor conference last week where Rutledge was talking about how WiFi was absorbing most of the data usage on cellphones and Malone responded by saying that overseas ( pointing out KDDI in Japan ) that telecom is going after cable.

It makes sense. If cable's free WiFi add-on is becoming more useful to consumers than the wireless data packages cellphone companies are selling, what happens to the cellular companies in an eventual Wi-Fi first mobile world? where do they turn? Cable. Cable is an extremely valuable asset - broadband, TV, voice, Wi-Fi.

[MUSCLE13]

i was worried either one quarter... q3 or q4 wouldnt be good. but that was solely based on guidance. we all know they lowball guidance but in the past it hasnt been insanely off but they typically beat. but yea, im sure that they are lowballing because of what last time and dont want be in that situation again.

i just wouldve thought guidance wouls have been upped more significantly because the gm deal change should be basically flushed through now. should be an interesting few months especially with liberty spin off done, convertibles done etc...

I remember at an investor conference how Meyer was surprised at the stock reaction to the "tweaking" as he called it of sub numbers last year's 4th quarter. I personally consider it his one mistake at Sirius thus far. I don't think Mel would have ever let that happen, and I doubt Meyer's ever repeats it. My opinion is that this is a real lowball. Just my guess.

I like the way Meyer, Frear and Greenstein have continued Mel's strategy all the way through. FCF, Content, Buybacks, Car, no stupid internet streaming dilutive deals. When I hear Meyer say FCF per share on the earnings call, I say beautiful.

[midas360]

@Muscle... when are the cable companies going to get into the wireless business? You have AT&T taking over DirecTV and Dish is mulling making an offer for T-Mobile. Why are the cable companies so reluctant to make any moves? Dish has so much spectrum it's just a matter of time before they enter the market. Just a thought...

[MUSCLE13]

@Muscle... when are the cable companies going to get into the wireless business? You have AT&T taking over DirecTV and Dish is mulling making an offer for T-Mobile. Why are the cable companies so reluctant to make any moves? Dish has so much spectrum it's just a matter of time before they enter the market. Just a thought...

Looks like it's going to be through Wi-Fi. Most of the data people are consuming on smartphones is already occurring through Wi-Fi not cellular data plans. Liberty Global I believe is already offering mobile phone service to their customers through MVNO relationships with wireless providers. I know when Comcast and TWC sold their spectrum to Verizon they established a MVNO ( mobile virtual network operator) relationship with Verizon. Comcast also has a MVNO relationship with Sprint. Once they decide to offer mobile plans, which I think is going to take a couple of years, I expect Wi-Fi first phones where customers default to WiFi and the cellular is a backup on the phone (mvno deal comes into play) where Wi-Fi is not available.

We are living in a Wi-Fi world. Comcast and other cable companies are installing routers in subs homes with dual ssids. One private Wi Fi and one public. And the same is happening with business subs and all the cable companies are doing public hotspots. By the end of next month Comcast should have 8 million Wi-Fi hotspots through its initiatives. I expect they will have millions more next year. In my opinion, only a matter of time before the Wi-Fi first becomes standard and cellular is the backup on phones. Give it a few years.

I do not like the cellular business and I hope the cable companies buy zero spectrum. As you can see I think Wi-Fi will be heavy competition and I see price wars already happening within cellular.