Originally Posted by
Steiny
Hey guys, haven't been posting much, just lurking and reading everyone's posts. Congrats to those with all the good trades. I just wanted to post up a quick analysis for you guys - it's nothing earth-shattering, but figured it was pertinent for everyone to see so you can plan ahead of need be... I just added up the major financial numbers YTD and compared vs. 2014 guidance. Then looked at the YOY comparison for Q4. Unfortunately it doesn't look good for Q4 unless guidance was ultra-conservative. But in general SIRI has guided slightly lower than actual performance. In this case, hopefully they crush earnings, but it doesn't look good right now. I think SIRI will have to have unbelievable 2015 guidance to overcome what the number are showing.
I originally guessed that Q3 numbers would be horrible and Q4 would be great. But it's shaping up to be the opposite, it's interesting because Q4 is typically SIRI's best Q historically.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.... just trying to look ahead beyond the current PPS and market conditions.
Revenues YTD $3.090B vs. $4.150B guidance - implies $1.06B for Q4, which is 6% growth YOY.
FCF YTD $0.825B vs. $1.120B guidance - implies $295M for Q4 which is -3% decline YOY.
EBITDA YTD $1.086B vs. $1.425B guidance - implies $339M for Q4 which is 4% growth YOY.
Net subscribers YTD 1.175M vs. 1.5M guidance - implies 325M net subs for Q4 which is lower than Q2 and Q3. Also, can't really compare this YOY because of GM contract shift in Q4 2013.
Net self-pay subs YTD 0.932M vs. 1.25M guidance - implies 317k net self-pay adds for Q4 which is lower than Q2 and Q3.
Paid promotional subs YTD 242k vs. 250k guidance - implies 7k net paid promo adds for Q4 which is the lowest of the year.