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Thread: SIRI Monthly Thread August 2014

  1. #1
    denco1 is offline
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    SIRI Monthly Thread August 2014

    CLR,

    Can you please move over all August posts to the August thread.

    Thanks

  2. #2
    dm_4 is online now
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    Well...im pretty sick of sirixm and management at this point. Another quarterly result has come and gone. For those of us who were wondering if they would let the stock run or keep it cuffed......I think at this point we have our answer. Keep the stock priced suppressed until they can grab all the cheap shares they can. Dead money for another few quarters??? im getting the feeling its true. Unreal BS!

  3. #3
    Garcar is offline
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    08/05/14
    11:30 AM ET Q2 2014 Liberty Media Corp Earnings Conference Call
    Listen to webcast
    Remind me

  4. #4
    Faulkner_SA is offline
    You guys need to understand that the more it drags and the more they buyback that the EVENTUAL effect to the positive is much greater...

    IF you DON'T sell out into the buyback. Basically, do what LMCA is doing, and applaud SP suppression in the meantime. Sucks for that number when you look at it daily... sucks for trying to predict trades and breakouts and whatnot, but if you hold, you are adding position for free because others sell and those shares are retired.

    Listen to the LMCA call from today... lots more info on SIRI, and more important info on SIRI, than the SIRI call.

    They were asked directly if they will be selling back into the buyback again and they said if SIRI was $10 they might. Obviously an exaggeration but do not expect them to sell back any more. Another question came through asking about them selling back and they mentioned it was to get some cash out / refill LMCA cash.

    It's not easy to sit and wait... Hell, maybe people can put money to work elsewhere and time re-entry. I dunno.

    For what it's worth I am convinced UBS runs the buyback, and their converts allow them risk-free control of the share price probably near 100 mil shares of control (which is massive... they can dominate trading ranges with that amount).

    When does that all go away? December. Most of the converts have already run through the ASR (I'd guess) and are now out of the picture. The rest of that "control" goes out the window in December.

    Expect SIRI to buy back the remainder of the $6 B or close to all of it by that date. That means they pull more debt soon, and that means a high level of open market purchases over the next 4 months. I also think the pressure to grab debt is very high right now with QE fading out and rates still low.

    Consider the tax benefits of interest costs and how low these rates are. Discount interest by 40% tax savings and let's say they need to pull a 7% rate on new debt... actual debt cost vs. taking it as cash is just over 4%...

    Expect the usual retards to jump around and scream about debt being 7% if they pull more at that rate... but it's not a concern.

    Blah blah blah ... SIRI bucking the market the last couple days. Let's see tomorrow when the ASR delivered shares settle if it breaks over the 50 / 20 or not.

    We could trade here (mid $3.30's) for weeks without harming the 50 day MA, and that 100 day MA turns up hard (at least, hard for a slow moving MA) next week so long as these levels stay.

    200 day MA rate of decline starts to slow down considerably next week too...

    I still expect a break but may take longer I guess. It will be my luck that it happens Monday August 18th after $10K in options get blown out as worthless

  5. #5
    Wolf Child is offline
    ............................

  6. #6
    Faulkner_SA is offline
    20 week turns up this week unless this breaks down.

  7. #7
    denco1 is offline
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    I second the , FaulkMAN as in TheMan....tied with Wolfie, of course.

    I did listen to the CC this a.m. and also took note of both those comments especially the $10 comment. Now I don't really trust Maffei and Liberty but it was a pretty straight forward comment in response to a question. Hopefully he is on the level with the not selling back into the remainder of the buy back. And if on the level then their ownership % will go up without doing a thing as will the rest that hold....including us lowly reets.

    Anyways, do you know for sure that UBS holds some of the converts. Is there a public record/filing/SIRI report etc...of who the convert holders currently are?
    Last edited by denco1; 08-05-2014 at 07:29 PM.

  8. #8
    dm_4 is online now
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    SF...i was thinking of doing what you had mentioned even before reading your comment. Selling my Siri position and go make money elsewhere and then buy back in at the end of year.

    I also listened to the call as well. I think maffie ended the call by saying something like "thanks for listening i will talk to you all next cc or before then". I thought the "before then" comment was kinda interesting....not sure why tho.

    Quick question....Now that Liberty owns 56% of siri...I was thinking maybe Liberty would like to get the "rest of their bait back" if they havent already by maybe selling back 3% or 4% of their shares at a higher price at say 4$ plus? If not then....maybe it would be possible for another end of year special divy like they did two years ago?

    actually i do know why i found his comment interesting...he never talks to us before the cc so why would it be any different?

    As far as getting "the bait back" they prob got that back during the last buyback.
    Last edited by dm_4; 08-05-2014 at 09:34 PM.

  9. #9
    bdp. is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by dm_4 View Post
    SF...i was thinking of doing what you had mentioned even before reading your comment. Selling my Siri position and go make money elsewhere and then buy back in at the end of year.
    If enough reets do this, wouldn't there be the risk of missing the boat as suppression is lifted and the sp is set free? After all, isn't the goal to shake out all retail investors? I have done exactly this in the past and in almost every case bought back in at a higher price making out no better than a wash. Maybe this time would be different?...

  10. #10
    Steiny is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by bdp. View Post
    If enough reets do this, wouldn't there be the risk of missing the boat as suppression is lifted and the sp is set free? After all, isn't the goal to shake out all retail investors? I have done exactly this in the past and in almost every case bought back in at a higher price making out no better than a wash. Maybe this time would be different?...
    You can always buy some call options to "cover" yourself after a sale. My personal strategy at the time of the initial "merger" announcement back in January was to sell and buy options. My thought was to protect my gains (my avg. was around $1.20/share) but still own shares. I ended up selling my shares at $3.84. However, I still have yet to buy options - I am of the opinion that with all the uncertainty with what Liberty is doing that the shares are stuck for now. I'm hoping I don' t miss the boat, but I am planning on buying back in sometime later this year after the 2014 convertibles are taken care of.

    Of course this plan depends on the overall macro environment - but in a vacuum, SIRI should appreciate past $4.18 at some point in the near future, even if it's after a merger with Liberty.

    Of course this is just my overall plan, but was hoping it would help you in some way with determining a strategy.

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