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Thread: SIRI Monthly thread for July

  1. #231
    dm_4 is offline
    dm_4's Avatar
    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 2,527
    Guess maybe the overall market and news of director selling off over a million shares is reason why siri hit 3.33? who knows.

    Any concerns over the director selling over a mill shares?

  2. #232
    Wolf Child is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 886
    Hit the bottom BB...... I say we bounce and close above the 50day.... because i'm an optimist.

    EDIT: What is this BullSH!T?!?!

    We just broke the 100day on the 3 year weekly

    $3.2X would be devastating. got Malone stink all over it.
    Last edited by Wolf Child; 08-01-2014 at 01:06 PM.

  3. #233
    bdp. is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by Wolf Child View Post
    Hit the bottom BB...... I say we bounce and close above the 50day.... because i'm an optimist.

    EDIT: What is this BullSH!T?!?!

    We just broke the 100day on the 3 year weekly

    $3.2X would be devastating. got Malone stink all over it.
    Agreed. I had a dark feeling that we would tank if the overall market faltered. Nice touch with that million share sale as well.

    EDIT: Seems once again left choking on dead money.
    Last edited by bdp.; 08-01-2014 at 05:03 PM.

  4. #234
    dm_4 is offline
    dm_4's Avatar
    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 2,527
    So much for our cup n handle :

  5. #235
    airman is offline

    I think 3.24 should hold if we should get there but if not then probably all the way down to 3.02'ish. Absolute worst is heading back down into the downtrend channel to 2.38. Lets hope not!! I think though we are getting oversold quickly. So If 3.24 does hold and we regain the 50 MA then there will be some churn and back up to 3.50's. This is what I expect. But there are some mysterious forces acting these days so nothing is for sure. Protect your positions.
    Last edited by airman; 08-02-2014 at 12:04 AM.

  6. #236
    Faulkner_SA is offline
    Well this obviously went the opposite way of what I was expecting. Market didn't help.

    Those two idiots "Shock Exchange" and "Wall Street Playbook" (Richard Saintvilus) smashing on their 4% earnings decline broken drum...

    Earnings declined by 4% due to LOSS IN VALUE ON CHANGE OF DERIVATIVES which they take due to their $3.66 purchase price on shares repurchased from LMCA in that forward. They booked a $7.5 mil loss in Q2 due to this and $34.5 mil loss to date.

    Furthermore they book losses as "income tax expense" because they booked a damn benefit when they recognized ALL the NOLs back in 2012 and got that 50 cent earnings quarter. So they booked $86.8 mil in loss that affects EPS but actually isn't there, and since this is $10.2 M more than last year it's a ghost drag variance ... smoke and mirrors yet again.

    $17.7 M is ghost shit, esentially.

    Now consider $17.7 M additional in added interest expense which is expected because of the debt.

    $35.4 M

    Other issues are negligible. A couple million due to variances in SIRI Canada and currency conversion issues.

    Anyways, if one (as they should) remove the weight of taxes because they are not paid (just like nobody should have assumed SIRI *Really* earned 50+ cents EPS in 2012 when they recognized them) and you take away the final loss in value on change of derivates due to the repurchase from LMCA which is now ALL booked you get :

    Last year :

    $125.5 mil earnings

    This year :

    $120 mil earnings PLUS 17.7 M or $137.7 mil earnings.

    Earnings INCREASED 12.2 mil or ... 10%.

    Can be argued SIRI canada special dividend raised earnings but siri canada is moving to paying a div regularly which should be the norm going forward and continue to add to SIRI earnings.

    F'ing Wall Street Journal fired off a 4% earnings decrease piece MINUTES after SIRI sent out the numbers. Tell me that wasn't written in advance?

  7. #237
    njbones1 is offline
    Senior Member
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Posts: 261
    Ever since Malone pulled his fake wana buy it offer, Siri has been dead wood. Someones pulling strings but not for us.

  8. #238
    Faulkner_SA is offline
    Ok I wrote something up on this. numbers are different from my quick calculations above as I added the tax back into both the numerator and denominator so it decreased the overall variance.

    Anyways, came up with 7.7% better performance Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013. That number may be a bit less considering the canada special dividend vs. forward regular dividend value difference but it should be close enough.

    I'm calcuating SIRI has at least 3 years of not paying taxes left.... I may be wrong on this, though, and they may have 5 years. I can't quite figure that out.... but it's long enough not to worry about tax for 2014, 2015, and 2016 at least.

    What people don't get is that net income of $120 mil or something is really over $200 mil net income because the tax is taken out on paper (because of the realized tax benefit in 2012 all going on paper at once) but is NOT actually paid out. It's a pretty significant difference. EPS would be like 15 cents for the year if you add taxes (that are not paid) back into earnings, giving that stupid P/E number a value of 22 today based on a SP of $3.30.

    When you consider they will likely pick up another 600 mil shares this year (my guess) minus the 270 mil going out on the converts you have a reduction of another 330 mil shares, 16 eps or a P/E this year of 20.5.

    P/E is for a-holes but many on the street use it... imagine if SIRI was booking NOLs as it used them instead, and showing near double EPS? Because that's the truth of the matter here....

  9. #239
    Faulkner_SA is offline
    This is deserving of a few articles methinks. I'll let the first one go out before I submit the next... Going to be a busy week of writing.

  10. #240
    denco1 is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2012 Location: Shortie's A$$ Posts: 2,048
    Good info, Stephen. It's all about buying back on the cheap from the retail investor. With most if not all companies with the exception of SIRI, buybacks are used to enhance shareholder value now and in the future, as in support the SP as they see it as undervalued. SIRI on the other hand entered into an ASR for the precise reason to buy back many shares while keeping the SP down/adding pressure to the SP for the purposes of adding future value to Liberty stake. Not the typical share repurchase goals of a company.

    Look at earnings in Q3 and Q4 of 2013. Both were in the 65 mn range. Even with the BS to supress earnings, year over year should show 100% GROWTH in Q3 and Q4 of 2014. The 2 hired guns you mention above that continue to try and show slowing growth will probably then chose to focus on sequential #s instead of Y o Y #s. Siri at the very least should show a doubling of earnings next Q maybe trippling Y o Y if they so chose to remove the shackles.
    Last edited by denco1; 08-03-2014 at 01:53 PM.

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