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Thread: SIRI Monthly thread for July

  1. #181
    Slip60 is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by denco1 View Post
    It's a modest beat with with increased guidance and 350mn shares pulled off the table in the Q. Subs at 475 look a whole should be enough for a positive reaction in SP........i hope.
    What doesn't the street like? What the hell do they want? I was happy with what I read and heard. I am hoping Jessica re-iterates her $5 price target...

  2. #182
    bdp. is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA View Post
    Nah, sit here a little bit let the MA's catch up on the 15 min chart.
    So we did keep falling and hit 3.38 like I predicted. You think now we bounce or crap out?

  3. #183
    Wolf Child is offline
    Wolf Child's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 886
    Quote Originally Posted by bdp. View Post
    If history repeats itself yet again, we may end today exactly where we started
    My thought is after that BS .10 take down yesterday with a decent report we'd end up where we started (yesterday).....

    Gap filled.... un f'n believable


    I really thought that being north of 3.50 and above the 200 day in Pre would spook the shorts into a litle run up at the open. Guess not.

    So now that Switch and bdp got their shares cheap and the shorts got yet another clean escape maybe the rest of us can make some $$ and finish UP

  4. #184
    bdp. is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by Slip60 View Post
    What doesn't the street like? What the hell do they want? I was happy with what I read and heard. I am hoping Jessica re-iterates her $5 price target...
    "Sirius profits fall as expenses rise". That's my guess.

  5. #185
    denco1 is offline
    denco1's Avatar
    Joined: Nov 2012 Location: Shortie's A$$ Posts: 2,048
    It's all a bunch of BS. LMCA wanted SIRI to take advantage of the last 2 high volume days to pick up more on the cheap. They bought 6% of the outstanding shares in Q2. That alone should have put us over $3.60. Eventually it will be very good for the long. Maybe they are making the last buys before another offer from Liberty. If not, then shares outstanding will continue to decrease at double the rate of what analysts had anticipated and longs will eventually be rewarded.

    EDIT: In the meantime......Fk SIRI and Liberty for putting the longs through this crap.
    Last edited by denco1; 07-29-2014 at 12:24 PM.

  6. #186
    dm_4 is offline
    dm_4's Avatar
    Joined: Dec 2012 Location: Boston, Ma Posts: 2,527
    This just blows....un****ing real. i am convinced more than ever now its the same ole same ole shit going forward. I said before this cc that i would keep my core in siri until the end of the year. I am not so sure i feel the same way now. I am thinking long and hard about this now. What to fckn do...what to ****n do?? We couldnt even hit 3.50 intra day today. So lets see if i can call this. In a few weeks we might hit 3.70.....then pulls back to 3.50.....then 3.58.....then boom....back to 3.38....then there might be an offer for our shares for 3.80....then that will push stock price to 4.00 then back down to 3.80...and by that time it will be feb 2015. Am i very far off? Sorry just venting.

  7. #187
    Slip60 is offline
    Per TD Ameritrade News

    Barrington Research Releases Bullish Coverage On Sirius XM

    Last update: 29/07/2014 1:26:35 pm

    In a report released Tuesday, Barrington Research analyst James Goss released coverage on Sirius XM (NASDAQ: SIRI) while reaffirming its Outperform rating.

    Analysts at Barrington favor Sirius' ability to consistently increase revenue; the company increased revenue by 9.9 percent from Q2 2013. Sirius currently displays EBITDA margins of 35.8 percent compared to 28.1 percent year-over-year and free cash flow of $335 million.

    Sirius reported a heavy increase in new subscribers, adding 1.5 million subscribers in 2014. The Barrington note focused on Sirius' vehicle segment, representing nearly 27 percent of total vehicles domestically, with a projection of nearly doubling to 120 million in the next five years. The current install rate is 70 percent on new vehicles.

  8. #188
    denco1 is offline
    denco1's Avatar
    Joined: Nov 2012 Location: Shortie's A$$ Posts: 2,048
    current look with a couple of trend lines....looking a bit like an ascending triangle?

    With the top being the 61.8%


    Holding in this area and moving up a bit we could see the golden cross in about EDIT 10-15 or so trading days. That 50 is moving up pretty fast..

    Clearly we need to get above the 200 though...
    Last edited by denco1; 07-29-2014 at 02:49 PM.

  9. #189
    Faulkner_SA is offline
    I took a nice nap. Glad I did... I'd probably be pulling my hair out today... and I have a nice head of hair. Not nice like this guy here

    But still nice. (If I had cartoons available like kids do today I'd be a total mess.... drugs and everything.... I worry about our future generations :P )

    I can't make heads or tails of the activity today. I remember many quarters ago there was a report that came in that was fairly nice and then the stock sold off and bounced pretty hard (can't pinpoint which one and not interested in digging).

    Anyways, only concern that may exist is that they have not pulled more debt for the next buyback set. They do have the revolver so that is available to use (and I'd expect them to keep buying in this area if it was good enough before). 550 mil ? available until they hit 4X leverage? About the same available in cash flow to the end of the year and then in Dec the converts free up more debt space. $1.65B? Perhaps shorts see opportunity / a potential lull in repurchases again. Buybacks can continue but not at the pace of Q2... would have to scale it down by about a third.

    350 million bought back in the quarter. No mention of buybacks to date that I can find... they may not have bought back in July which means pace could be faster than that third reduction in pace above.

    Since price is firmly above the converts that debt is essentially "shares" in a few months and I'm wondering if ratings agencies would be forgiving on debt issuance above 4X given that that half bil will come off in early December and go out as shares.

    Anyways... random thoughts. Still have the options and don't feel nervous about them. Might take a few days or a week or more to break that 200... but it seems like it's coming. 50 day pace up by half a penny a day, 100 day is about to flatline and turn up next week, and 200 is running out of downside steam.

    It was a good call.

  10. #190
    Faulkner_SA is offline
    Yes what denco said. Seeing same thing.

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