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Thread: SiriusXM Weekly Stock Talk: 4/20/14- 4/26/14

  1. #91
    denco1 is online now
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    If they don't tap the debt markets soon it will further show that they are FOS. All recent moves have been telegraphed as being for the purpose of levering up and continuing to buy back. I agree that it should be coming soon.

    I think Wunderdick reiterated his $3.50 and hold not a downgrade but not 100% sure.

  2. #92
    Steiny is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by denco1 View Post
    If they don't tap the debt markets soon it will further show that they are FOS. All recent moves have been telegraphed as being for the purpose of levering up and continuing to buy back. I agree that it should be coming soon.

    I think Wunderdick reiterated his $3.50 and hold not a downgrade but not 100% sure.
    100% agree with you. Based on what has been told to us, continue levering of the balance sheet and subsequent buybacks are the logical steps coming soon. Liberty's conference call is on the 8th I believe... I will be keeping a close on eye on what they say at that time...

    At least car sales are coming up next week. And the $3.50 updated target was a decrease from $3.80.... he's going to be looking like a fool in the near future.

  3. #93
    Steiny is online now
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    Attached is a comparison of my estimates vs. actual numbers. Wasn't as close on the key numbers as I usually am but now that the GM deal impact has gone through 2 quarters, figuring out the line items shouldn't be as difficult....

    At some point I will be posting up a look-forward analysis with PPS targets based on EV/EBITDA. I think you will all like what you see. I think once this extended down-turn wave ends, the PPS will increase substantially.
    Attached Files Attached Files

  4. #94
    njbones1 is online now
    Quote Originally Posted by denco1 View Post
    If they don't tap the debt markets soon it will further show that they are FOS. All recent moves have been telegraphed as being for the purpose of levering up and continuing to buy back. I agree that it should be coming soon.

    I think Wunderdick reiterated his $3.50 and hold not a downgrade but not 100% sure.
    Your right about that, 3.50 and hold. The Street went from Buy to Hold.

  5. #95
    sxminvestor is offline
    I had read the part in bold for the repurchase from Liberty, which was much higher...didn't see the sentence abov

    Quote Originally Posted by MLSiri View Post
    SXM-I,

    Simple math: so far this year SXM has purchased 65 million open-market shares for $210 million; $210 million/65 million shares = $3.23 per share.

  6. #96
    MLSiri is offline
    No prob, sxminvestor, the sentence with the $3.23 average share price was actually a much more bold statement, which should have received more emphatic formatting!

    Quote Originally Posted by sxminvestor View Post
    I had read the part in bold for the repurchase from Liberty, which was much higher...didn't see the sentence abov

  7. #97
    sxminvestor is offline
    I bought a few shares on Thursday @ 3.15 just to start dipping, but I'm concerned at a few things & listed some thoughts:

    New car conversion rates dipped again now down to 42%...they were holding 46% for years.

    I'm also concerned about the new car market holding up for the balance of this year at the levels they are at or cycling back down.

    The music royalty expenses jumping that someone else pointed out.

    Churn rate ok, but retention expenses increasing.

    The used car market may be what really helps them, especially with no SAC.

    It is hard to keep adding to such a high base when you are churning 5M / year

    Buybacks are great, but it would be better if they could do it without tapping markets and increasing debt so much.

    I'd rather see wads of cash and not so much debt....sooner or later they'll be talking about satellite replacement cycle and that cost.

    It's a never ending saga with this stock.

  8. #98
    obsession is offline

    Lmca&siri

    Quote Originally Posted by denco1 View Post
    I'll check them out Raptor.

    Lets see if I can make sense of them as you have.


    Ultimately, I don't think MaloneCo end game is to have us buy back a boat load of shares. Pulling us in to MaloneCo is what he wants and then spinning us out after a few years. He will continue to have SIRI buy back at low levels but I don't think it will be in huge #s. Just enough to show us they EDIT: are "looking out" for all other shareholder interests.....a smokescreen. He wants SIRI for its FCF to complete his BIG picture plans whatever they are. SIRI shareholders will benefit as a result of MaloneCo benefiting but that is not his priority. At this point I would rather get pulled into MaloneCo and be a direct part of the plan rather than constantly being blindsided by their actions or inactions. A merge swap will effectively reverse split SIRI and reduce the float. This is another reason I don't think MaloneCo wants to buy back at large levels going forward or is too concerned about the huge float as it will be reduced substantially on the merge.

  9. #99
    obsession is offline
    I agree with your insight and I am awaiting 5/8/14 CC. Good luck Mon.!!!

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