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Thread: SiriusXM Weekly Stock Talk: 4/20/14- 4/26/14

  1. #71
    MLSiri is offline
    SXM purchased 65 million open-market shares for $210 million so far this year based on this statement from today's 8-K:

    “Tomorrow, we are scheduled to repurchase 93 million shares from Liberty Media for $340 million, bringing total share repurchases for the year to 158 million shares for $550 million and leaving us with $1.7 billion remaining under our share repurchase authorization. Total debt to adjusted EBITDA at the end of the first quarter 2014 was 2.8 times, below our 4.0 times leverage target. We expect to opportunistically tap the debt markets this year as we move towards our leverage target, ” added Frear.

    So, SXM has been buying during this downturn at an average cost of $3.23 per share. There were concerns that they had to wait until the Liberty purchase had finished (i.e., couldn't do any buyback until tomorrow), but these concerns have now proven to be unfounded.

    Also, based on the above statement regarding a debt leverage target of 4 times adjusted EBITDA, SXM can comfortably borrow up to $1.26 billion (coincidentally, the amount of the current revolver) and use about $500 million in 2014 FCF to hit its remaining $1.7 billion share repurchase authorization. Even at an average price of $4 per share, that $1.7 billion will reduce the outstanding share count by about 425 million shares (about 7% of 6.059 billion outstanding shares as of 3/31/2014).

    And finally, the P&F chart hit a double top breakout today and has a bullish price objective of $3.71. Let's keep the mo going!

  2. #72
    denco1 is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2012 Location: Shortie's A$$ Posts: 1,485
    Quote Originally Posted by Slip60 View Post
    Are you basketball fans seeing the banner for Sirius XM's NBA Radio underneath the scorers table at some of these playoff games? I have, and it's great to see them trying to raise awareness. I've seen it on the hockey boards also in the past, so I would think they are also displayed at this years playoffs.

    I have seen the banner during the games. Stands out quite well. I like the exposure.

  3. #73
    Steiny is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2008 Posts: 16
    Thought this was important from the Q&A:

    Jim Meyer
    I’ll take the first one in the third one and David will take the middle one on SAC. First of all, I thought we were clear, I just want to be clearer. Our guidance for self-pay net additions this year is 1.25 million. Our first quarter performance quite candidly was a little better than we had expected when we drew that plan. But I want to continue to see how the months unfold, but I’m confident in the 1.25 million.

    So total net subs should be break even from last year or even better? I was under the impression since January that 1.25M was the total net for the year. Self-pay subs would still be down YOY, but maybe total net subs will be much better and perception of SIRI will be better to the public as well?

  4. #74
    Slip60 is offline
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    Joined: Mar 2014 Posts: 14
    Quote Originally Posted by Steiny View Post
    Thought this was important from the Q&A:

    Jim Meyer
    I’ll take the first one in the third one and David will take the middle one on SAC. First of all, I thought we were clear, I just want to be clearer. Our guidance for self-pay net additions this year is 1.25 million. Our first quarter performance quite candidly was a little better than we had expected when we drew that plan. But I want to continue to see how the months unfold, but I’m confident in the 1.25 million.

    So total net subs should be break even from last year or even better? I was under the impression since January that 1.25M was the total net for the year. Self-pay subs would still be down YOY, but maybe total net subs will be much better and perception of SIRI will be better to the public as well?
    Steiny,

    Not sure what to believe as there definitely is a distinction between net subscriber additions and net self-pay subscriber additions. This is from their release dated January 7th and clearly says that the 1.25m guidance is for Net Subscriber Additions:

    NEW YORK, Jan. 7, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- SiriusXM today announced that it ended 2013 with 25.56 million subscribers, reporting 1.66 million net subscriber additions in the year, exceeding the company's recently raised guidance of 1.6 million net additions. Self-pay net additions in 2013 were 1.5 million for the full year, bringing self-pay subscriptions to over 21 million.

    The company also issued 2014 subscriber and free cash flow guidance and reiterated its 2014 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance of:
    Net subscriber additions of 1.25 million,
    •Free cash flow approaching $1.1 billion,
    •Revenue of over $4.0 billion, and
    •Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.38 billion.

  5. #75
    bdp. is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Posts: 229
    So it seems the news was essentially inert, or at best pretty decent. ("Nice job " with a few pats on the head...)

  6. #76
    sxminvestor is offline
    Where do you get 3.23 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by MLSiri View Post
    SXM purchased 65 million open-market shares for $210 million so far this year based on this statement from today's 8-K:

    “Tomorrow, we are scheduled to repurchase 93 million shares from Liberty Media for $340 million, bringing total share repurchases for the year to 158 million shares for $550 million and leaving us with $1.7 billion remaining under our share repurchase authorization. Total debt to adjusted EBITDA at the end of the first quarter 2014 was 2.8 times, below our 4.0 times leverage target. We expect to opportunistically tap the debt markets this year as we move towards our leverage target, ” added Frear.

    So, SXM has been buying during this downturn at an average cost of $3.23 per share. There were concerns that they had to wait until the Liberty purchase had finished (i.e., couldn't do any buyback until tomorrow), but these concerns have now proven to be unfounded.

    Also, based on the above statement regarding a debt leverage target of 4 times adjusted EBITDA, SXM can comfortably borrow up to $1.26 billion (coincidentally, the amount of the current revolver) and use about $500 million in 2014 FCF to hit its remaining $1.7 billion share repurchase authorization. Even at an average price of $4 per share, that $1.7 billion will reduce the outstanding share count by about 425 million shares (about 7% of 6.059 billion outstanding shares as of 3/31/2014).

    And finally, the P&F chart hit a double top breakout today and has a bullish price objective of $3.71. Let's keep the mo going!

  7. #77
    MLSiri is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by sxminvestor View Post
    Where do you get 3.23 ?
    SXM-I,

    Simple math: so far this year SXM has purchased 65 million open-market shares for $210 million; $210 million/65 million shares = $3.23 per share.

  8. #78
    bdp. is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Posts: 229
    We have 3.15 printed this morning. Not a good sign. Was there something horrific about the CC or just the usual bullying taking its toll? Perhaps the higher than market Liberty share sale today is pressuring the sp downward? Or just Sirius being the usual Sirius.

  9. #79
    Wolf Child is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by bdp. View Post
    We have 3.15 printed this morning. Not a good sign. Was there something horrific about the CC or just the usual bullying taking its toll? Perhaps the higher than market Liberty share sale today is pressuring the sp downward? Or just Sirius being the usual Sirius.
    The 1st 100 share trade that went through for 3.21 was mine immediately followed by a MM order @ 3.14 and then a fill of space between the two......

    No matter what price is put in by a reet to start the day it is always undercut by MM.

    Not really important info but thought I'd share my experiences.

  10. #80
    bdp. is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2012 Posts: 229
    Sirius down from close. Futures all red. I think today we get hammered.

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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