Hey guys, I've been lurking and reading everyday but I wanted to share with you my Q1 2014 quarterly estimates that I posted on another website. For about 3 years I have been posting each quarter and have been pretty accurate. Last quarter I was off more than usual because of Agero acquisition (understated revenues by the amount Agero added) and the actual amount the GM contract affected net sub adds. Below is what I wrote up (copy and pasted it here) and I have attached a PDF of my analysis. I also have been working on a look-forward EV/EBITDA analysis and hit almost dead on the past two years. Once I update this again I will share here as well.
If anyone has any thoughts I would love to hear them and discuss in more detail. Disclaimer - I sold 100% of my shares on 1/6 at an average of 3.835. Eventually I am looking to re-enter and have been having a hard time pulling the trigger recently (but congrats on all those who made trades and/or bought in at these fire sale prices!). I think SIRI is extremely undervalued right now but I am personally apprehensive about these Q1 results and Liberty's intentions moving forward (as we all are). I don't think it's a coincidence that the Q1 CC is the day before SIRI buys back shares at 3.66 from Liberty....
It's quarterly estimate time again - see attached. Overall I'm not sure exactly what to think of this quarter. We know that sub #'s will most likely be very low - last quarter was a loss of 22k net subs. But the bright side was that SIRI added over 400k net paid subs. The loss was due in most part to the change in the GM contract which we knew was coming. We know that Q1 will have another big loss net unpaid subs, but the question is how much?
From Q4 2012 to Q4 2013, the difference in net sub adds was over (500k). Net subs decreased over 100k and net unpaid subs decreased over 400k. I don't foresee a 500k YOY drop in (Q1 2013 452k net adds). But Q1 overall car sales were almost 200k less than Q4 2013 and the Q1 2013 net paid sub additions was 300k and Q4 2012 was 528k..... so my guess is net self-pay adds of 325k and net paid promotional sub loss of (300k) for a total of 25k net subscribers added in Q1. This leave Q2 - Q4 for about 1,225,000 net adds for the year based on guidance. Hopefully I am being way too conservative on this....
Because of the estimated slowing growth in net subs, I have APRU increasing to 12.58 this quarter. Adjusted EBITDA will come in over 300M and FCF will be 185M. I think revenues will be flat QOQ but are in line with the % increase YOY.
13 positions in my stock portfolio and 2 are red...... both run by a guy named Malone.
Enjoy your long weekend guys
Last edited by Wolf Child; 04-17-2014 at 04:15 PM.
If we do happen to beat estimates the sp will f'n skyrocket because no one is expecting a good Q.......
What's with the unusually low volume?
Maybe this is why all the funny action.
I have a funny feeling that this stock will close at 3.15 (Last Liberty Contract Price) the day ahead of earnings call, just to screw with everyone.