Joined: Aug 2008
When will the bidding war between Apple, MSFT, and GOOG begin?
I am CONVINCED this is going to happen. I am surprised it hasn't happened yet...now that the merger is done.
My only thought is that they are waiting to see if it hits that $1 Goldman/Cramer price target first this February when they have that last bit of debt to deal with.
If true, I think this is a RISKY strategy. Sirius is currently at a 4.5 billion market cap(7billion with debt added)...that is LESS than it was in 2003 when they had a FRACTION of the subs, growth and earnings.
Mel Karmazin doesn't run companies, he builds them up and sells them off. He's a master at it. Case in point, taking Infinity from $17 a share to $170 with it's buyout. Thats WHAT he does. He WILL broker a deal with Sirius and XM.
MSFT failed to deliver a blow to Google when it's attempt to acquire Yahoo fell thru. Apple may be dominating the mp3 and smart phone market, but MSFT is going after the cars with it's SYNC system. BOTH these companies could trump the other with a purchase of SIRIUS. And of course GOOGLE wants to expand their empire.
All three of these companies would benefit HUGE by acquiring Sirius, which is no longer a tech company, but a media company...and one with enormous value to whomever has it.
All those who scoffed at Mel's pursuit of "CONTENT" will be eating crow.
Sirius is a STEAL at these levels for any one of those three companies. They better hurry too, because GE or DISNEY could jump into the game.
Sirius has been beaten down, because of the insane and criminal delay by the FCC...but the simple fact is they are STILL growing. They will be in 100% of cars released in the not too distant future. They have Howard, Oprah, O & A, Martha, the NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NBA, NHL...etc etc.
I mean COME ON! They will OWN the car market. Terrestrial radio is DEAD, it's why they fought this merger so bad. Yes, the delay hurt the bottom line...but that is only temporary. The fact is that OEMs in cars went UP.
Sirius went from only 67 thousand subs a few years ago to now close to 20 MILLION!
Imagine Apple owning Sirius. Ipods are great, but in the car, people want live radio. And again, it's why Mel's forward thinking about content was GENIUS. He knew he'd take a hit. He knew people would be mad. But when Sirius gets bought out by one of these giants, the stock price is going to EXPLODE UPWARDS.
The debt will be a non issue eventually, even if SIrius DOESN'T get bought out.....but they WILL get bought, it's only a matter of time, and WHEN they do...the whole debt issue INSTANTLY vanishes. And all the shorts will get CRUSHED and the LONGS who've been complaining will be REWARDED.
Forget the previous hopes of a $5 pps. Sirius would go to $10 instantly.
Mark My words, this IS Mel's goal. He even said so himself. He said he doesn't run companies. He brokers deals. This deal will be his swan song.
The question is are you long and strong? How strong? This deal could happen at any moment, but after the battle fatigue of the merger process and the ongoing assault by the bashers and the downgrades by Goldman Sachs...can you hang in there? For how long?
Oh by the way...Goldman Sachs, may have downgraded Sirius 3 times in the last month, but at the same time, they've been buying up MILLIONS of shares of Sirius.
Hmmm. What does that tell you? I think it proves beyond the shadow of a doubt that Goldman doesn't believe it's own actions. Can you say manipulation and agenda? It also supports my theory that Sirius will be bought. It's going to happen people.
Joined: Jul 2008
SIRI As Buyout Candidate
I think you are correct. And I'm betting on SIRI SP turning north in any case. Sure sucks now though. I'm holding and waiting. If it goes to a dollar I will buy more. If it stays in Suckville for three months, I still won't budge. After what they did to me with the merger and the XMSR arbitrage, I am going to hold on. Even though Mel indicated otherwise, if a reverse split occurs, I will short it.
Joined: Dec 2007
I like the thought of a buyout, they are too weak on their own.