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Thread: Arena / Vivus Technicals

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  1. #1
    Spencer Osborne is offline
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    Arena / Vivus Technicals

    Arena Technicals 5-30-2013

    Volume
    Volume is critical. I use the 200 day average volume as my baseline. Moves on heavy volume (above the 200 day average) have strength. A move on weak volume lacks conviction. We want to see the equity pass key support and resistance points on heavy volume. We want to see what the volume is when the equity nears support and resistsnce points. EMA's also act as support and gauge sentiment well.

    5-30 arna volume.jpg

    Support and Resistance
    Self explanitory. For tomorrow watch for strength of support at $8.90. There is a sentimental resistance at $9.00. If volume is high and this equity passes $9.00 it can move to $9.25 with relative ease.

    5-30 arna sr.jpg

    Exponential Moving Averages
    The EMA's are all bullish. Caution flags will appear if the price of one EMA dips below the next. Warning flags appear when an average passes below the next. If anyone has a question please feel free to ask.
    5-30 arna ema'.jpg

  2. #2
    Spencer Osborne is offline
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    5-31 technicals on Arena.

    The equity remains bullish. With the pending launch a bullish bias is anticipated. Volume was slightly higher than the previous session, thus we saw a downward move on higher volume. That is not a bullish sign, but Arena remains in a range where the downward pressure exhibited in the Friday session is not overly worrisome.

    5-31 arna volume.jpg

    The support and resistance levels are interesting. We have very strong support at $8.68. Absent news, we would have to watch this level closely. With the launch this week this level is very safe. Do yourself a favor...remember this level when the first channel checks come in. It will be the initial downside target from a technical standpoint. Resistance above is at $9.25 and $9.50. Both levels are moderately weak. If the equity can pass $9.50 , there is little resistance all the way to $11 (bear in mind that the 50 cent levels are a bit of psychological resistance). This equity will either gravitate to an area between $9 and $9.25 or an area between $9.25 and $9.50 as we await the first channel checks. The channel checks can establish a new foundation depending on how good they are.

    5-31 arna sr.jpg

    The exponential Moving Averages are all currently bullish. The immediate downside risk is the 5 day EMA at $8.70. I do not see the equity going there this week. With the launch pending the equity should enter a bullish pattern. The trading action this week will establish the technical points we will be needing about 10 days after launch when the first channel checks come out. Watchj the volume closely.

    5-31 arna ema.jpg

  3. #3
    Spencer Osborne is offline
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    These are the weekly script numbers. Bear in Mind, Belviq just launched. As you can see, there is traction happening for Qsymia. It is too early to establish a trend line for Belviq
    script numbers.jpg

  4. #4
    Spencer Osborne is offline
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    week vs week comparison. At this early stage the ramp up is about the same, though arena is starting at a higher number.

    q and b data.jpg

  5. #5
    healthythoughts is offline
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    Give VVUS' Qysmia 3-6 months...We'll seeeeeeeeeee

  6. Ad Fairy Senior Member

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