Downgrade
06:10 EDT SIRI Sirius XM downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie
Macquarie downgraded shares due to valuation. Price target is $3.25.
February 5, 2013
Affirmation of Overweight
08:40 EDT SIRI Sirius XM remains a top large cap idea at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray said Sirius XM remains its top large cap idea for 2013 following the company's Q4 results. Piper says Sirius XM continues to deliver strong subs growth. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on the stock with a $3.40 price target.
http://www.theflyonthewall.com/perma...RI?symbol=SIRI
No Denco, it does not have to hit the line but it cannot go below it. For those not familiar with Elliot wave analysis, I posted a webpage describing my chart and how one would trade it if we are indeed forming a new motive wave. There is a lot of info here.
http://www.trendystockcharts.com/siri/
Go ahead and post any questions you have back here on Sirius Buzz.
Last edited by Limit5Bass; 02-06-2013 at 02:20 PM. Reason: edited link
Merril Lynch analyst has weighed in---From Yahoo board
Excerpt from Merrill Lynch Siri Alert, 3rd alert in 45 days. Received this morning,
Don’t lose forest for trees; solid quarter, best to come
Expectations for SiriusXM were high into 4Q’12, with the Co. pre-releasing
subscriber results exceeding guidance, setting a high bar for 4Q results. Although
SIRI ever-so-slightly missed (essentially a rounding error) top-line revenue and
EBITDA (see Sirius XM Radio Inc, 05 February 2013, for our previously published
summary of 4Q results), we believe these financials will quickly become an
afterthought, and not a driver. The apparent EBITDA “miss” was primarily driven
on sales and marketing spending, which helped yield the best self-paid churn rate
in almost five years (1.8%). Given SIRI’s cost structure, we believe the Co. can
push/pull levers for growth, an optimal strategy, as the Co. – with 24mn subs,
80%+ paying – is still in hyper growth mode.
Acting CEO James Meyer knocks it out of the park
Stepping into the role of CEO after ~9 years as an operating executive is difficult
enough; stepping into Mel Karmazin’s shoes is likely overwhelming. “Interim”
(perhaps permanent?) CEO Jim Meyer gave a clear, concise, differentiated vision
for the company on the conf. call (though he did not deviate sharply from Mr.
Karmazin’s playbook). We are encouraged by Mr. Meyer’s laser-focus on what
needs to be done to enhance shareholder value (incl. commencing the $2bn
share buyback immediately, and committing to a 3.5x target levg. ratio). Mr.
Meyer was encyclopedic in his knowledge of the Sat. Radio platform, laying out a
clear vision why IP and telematics could be future growth engines for the Co. (in
addition to its constellation of broadcast satellites, unlikely to ever be replicated).
Solid guidance, valuation more reasonable, reit. Buy, $4 PO
SIRI’s success will be dependent on auto sales, already off to a strong start in
January (15.2mn vs. 13.9mn a year ago, +10% Y/Y). The Co. reiterated its recent
2013 guidance, which we believe will be raised so long as positive trends in autos
continue (plus a tremendous secondary car opportunity). Valuation reflects the
Co.’s growth prospects (14.0x EV/EBITDA, 18.2x P/E and 13.2x P/FCF, based on
2014E, vs. projected growth rates of 28%, 37% and 42% respectively). We
reiterate our Buy rating. We have modestly revised estimates to reflect higher sub
growth with slightly higher spending. Our PO of $4 represents 28% upside
potential.
Estimates (Dec)
(US$) 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
EPS 0.07 0.07 0.13 0.17 0.21
GAAP EPS 0.07 0.51 0.13 0.17 0.21
EPS Change (YoY) 600.0% 0% 85.7% 30.8% 23.5%
Consensus EPS (Bloomberg) 0.09 0.12 0.20
DPS 0 0 0 0 0
Valuation (Dec)
2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
P/E 45.7x 45.7x 24.6x 18.8x 15.2x
GAAP P/E 45.7x 6.3x 24.6x 18.8x 15.2x
Dividend Yield 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EV / EBITDA* 32.0x 25.4x 18.5x 15.9x 14.3x
Free Cash Flow Yield* 2.1% 3.7% 4.5% 5.0% 5.4%
* For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 10.
Hey Jackweed, I think you're better off showing a loss to the IRS. It does not affect your total amount in your account. You would just be showing a loss, although your accout absolutely did gain on that trade. Make sense? Anyone, please tell me if I am misguided in this.
Anyone know why the bald guys on CNBC have pony tails? Are they serious? Is it a bet? Do they play in bands on the weekends?
+Rep for the best answer, whether true or funny.
Charles LaRocca
SiriusBuzz Founder
You are correct. He should have taken the loss.
Most trading platforms have an option to "maximize my tax benefits" when you make a sale. I don't know why you wouldn't want to lock in losses. I am yet to hear a good reason why a typical investor would not want to. Even if you max out losses, you can still carry them forward.
Charles LaRocca
SiriusBuzz Founder